March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

 Don Its the dank dampness of our climate in Nov- Mar that make it always feel cold. Not much difference in feel between a damp dank 5-6 degrees, and 9-10 degrees. Its the 'feel' of the weather that triggers a reaction to how we describe it. Many a dry day with no wind and sunshine in high single figures can 'feel' much warmer than a damp drab day in the low teens at this time of year. 

Edited March 26 by damianslaw

[stewfox]

 Don The lack of sun ,with wind and rain has made it feel colder.  Its easier for me to remember 40yrs ago still feels cold for March.

[Don]

 damianslaw  What does amuse me is when people say things like 'what's happened to Global warming etc?!'.  I'm talking about in general BTW, not necessarily on here.  You mention about the 'feel' of the weather triggering a reaction to how we describe it, but I remember during past mild winters, most would say how mild it was, whether it was wet, dry, dull, wet, windy or sunny!  I think people are so used to mild being the norm now, their tolerances are changing?  I have worn my winter coat only a handful of times since November, with a light water proof jacket sufficing most of the time.  However, it's swings and roundabouts as come summer when it's 30C plus and humid, I will be struggling, while some others are enjoying the weather!

[damianslaw]

Up here in the Lake District a thick winter jacket is needed Dec to March not necessarily on account of temp but more the endless rain combined with wind at times, a light rain coat doesn't do the job of staying dry. Ive had my winter coat on most days, but should soon be exchanged for the lighter rain coat.. probably not until May fully..

[WYorksWeather]

Expecting possibly an average around 9C today, somewhat above expectations. Maybe enough to scrape 8.2C for the end of the month? Easter Sunday possibly looks warm-ish in the south, so maybe above previous expectations at Pershore?

Definitely feeling better about my 8.4C - it looked like a mid to high 7s finish was more likely a few days ago.

[WYorksWeather]

 Don I tend to think that feel is a very different thing to actual temperatures. The memory of a month is probably dominated by the following - sunny days count more, rainy days count less, nights count less than days, sustained warm periods are remembered more than 'less cold' cold patterns. In short, if this month had a similar CET (in the 8.0C range), but with a warm day cool night split, say 13C max and 3C minima. Add in a bit of variation - a cold and snowy late winter blast for a few days in the early part of the month, followed by a distinctly warm and sunny period with a few days widely reaching 16-20C under clear skies and light winds but still fairly cool by night.

Such a month would have a similar overall CET to this one, but would be remembered as much warmer. There is also a more general point, which is that to a lot of people, anything below about 20C counts as one classification - 'not shorts and t-shirt weather for sitting outdoors'. If that is your criteria, then what matters is the number of days that reach that threshold, and so by that metric, a month with 10 days at 20C, 15 days at 10C, and 5 days at 0C, would rank higher than a month with 0 days at 20C, 25 days at 15C, and 5 days at 10C, despite the fact that the latter is much warmer.

In short, 'feel' is far more than can be captured in just the CET I think. The closest correspondence is probably in summer - it's very rare to get a notably above average month in summer for the CET which is also wetter and duller than average, and to a lesser extent the same is true for May and September. In March, we're still very much at the time of year where a dull and rainy south-westerly can lead to day after day of e.g. 12C highs and 8C lows, which are as mild in terms of the mean as almost anything except a long-fetch southerly.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +1.2C above average. Rainfall 78.9mm 130.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 26th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[Derecho]

15 hours ago, Don said:

I think people are so used to mild being the norm now, their tolerances are changing? 

Yup, I remember last April people were saying it was several degrees colder then average and terrible yet that wasn't the case at all.

I can imagine if we saw an April like 1998 or 2012 people would be having a complete breakdown.

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho How about a spring like 1837, see here:

Would be absolute pandemonium.

[Roger J Smith]

There were a few exceptionally cold days in April 1966 around 13th to 17th, I don't know any details of snowfall that occurred but CET daily records were broken. Later on it turned quite warm for a few days at end of April and into early may and one max record was set. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho

In two decimals we're at 8.18C today - I would have thought the likely finish is 8.2C. Outside chance of 8.3C given there does look to be more warm potential for Saturday and Sunday than looked likely a few days ago - we don't go cool and wet until Monday.

In short, my prediction is looking good 

[Methuselah]

 WYorksWeather : I take it you went for 8.2 too! Unless I've forgotten (quite possibly) so did I. 

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Yes south westerly months Nov - Apr will always result in very mild CET values, but in 'feel' don't register as mild, namely due to lack of sun, rain or low cloud and often windy to boot. Sadly we see far too many such months... 

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Oh my goodness what on earth produced such a cold spring, to see 2 months 3 degrees below average back to back is probably unprecedented, a major SSW affect perhaps! April at 4.7 degrees! What!

Edited March 27 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 Methuselah 8.4C. I consider anything within half a degree or so to be a pretty good result.

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

There were a few exceptionally cold days in April 1966 around 13th to 17th, I don't know any details of snowfall that occurred but CET daily records were broken.

Trevor Harley's summary of that month:

Quote

April: Cold, dull, and wet. Very wet in southwest England, where it was one of the wettest Aprils of the century: there was about three times the average rainfall. There was a notable snowdall in some places in the north on the 1st; parts of Lancashire saw at least six inches, and some sites might have had a foot of snow. It was warm around Easter (10th). The snow fell as a shallow low moved across the Midlands on the 1st-2nd. There was a significant late snowfall in the south on the night of 13-14th, and throughtout the following day, which was also very cold in an northeasterly wind. Brighton had a couple of inches of snow; snow cover was 15 cm deep on the high ground from Kent to Hampshire. In some places it snowed continuously for 48 hours.  It was dull and cold until the the 27th. The cold, snowy month had a damaging effect on breeding birds. May then started warm.

A chart for that month:

[Roger J Smith]

Preliminary Contest Results including best combined

_ based on 8.1 C and 106 mm _

now appears on 1st April ...
 

Edited April 1 by Roger J Smith

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 WYorksWeather if its 8.2 then I win.   

[Roger J Smith]

If it was 8.2, you would be second in CET as Methuselah entered before you, but you would be solo "best combined" ... 

[Weather-history]

 Roger J Smith

 

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 26th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

CET may rise to 8.3 degrees thanks to milder maxima next couple of days. The lack of frost in central and southern parts has been notable this month, but no surprise given the persistant low heights. One of the most low pressure mean Marches I reckon. 

Edited March 28 by damianslaw

[kold weather]

Ewp will almost certainly be above 100mm by the end of today. Another very wet month due to a very wet end.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

CET may rise to 8.3 degrees thanks to milder maxima next couple of days.

It's felt like you've got that 8.3 round the wrong way apparently!