Ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming could delay spring warmth

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 06/03/2024 at 13:36, Cheshire Freeze said:

My hunch is we’ll see some sort of Greenland blocking take hold at some point this month.

We’ve seen repeated attempts at retrogressing HP west from Scandi…with a malleable strat profile it’ll only be a matter of time until it succeeds.

My punt has been on a colder than average spring for a long while. 

[danm]

Unless you are just a fan of cool weather, I just don't understand why some people are happy to see a late season SSW. All it does is increase the chances of a cold Spring, without really giving us what we craved in winter, which is copious amounts of snow. Cool, wet, showery. No thank you. 

Edited March 18 by danm

[Methuselah]

 danm And buggers up the start of summer? 

[Summer8906]

 Methuselah Maybe, but then there's 1989, which is one of the very few years with a mild and wet Feb and March together, like this year (albeit not as extreme). April was cold and changeable (providing the only lying snow of the 'winter') but we all know what happened next. Still the best extended summer of my lifetime..

(Was there an SSW  in '89, incidentally? Or were such things not known about then?)

Edited March 18 by Summer8906

[Wade]

Yep the SSW will induce a block to form to our north giving us a cold air source, I think we can rule out any chance of 20C being reached or breached this March which I personally think is good, the weather in this country is breaking too many warm records as it is.

[Summer8906]

GFS 12z seems to be going for a cold outlook with a drier easterly (some rain in the south, but probably not vast amounts) instead of the extreme cyclonic solution of some recent runs, so I guess it's on a knife-edge.

It ends with a nondescript SW-ly but at least it'll be April by then which should mean it won't last long.

[Mike Poole]

 Summer8906 SSW on 21/2/89.

[Don]

17 hours ago, Methuselah said:

And buggers up the start of summer? 

What like the start of summer 2018?! 

[Don]

On 06/03/2024 at 22:37, SunnyG said:

It seems to me that some people are obsessed with cold weather

So, if we get a very cool and wet summer (highly unlikely), you won't mind me saying people are obsessed with hot weather when it comes to them looking for late summer warmth in September then?  

[SunnyG]

 Don I won't mind. I love different opinions