Ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming could delay spring warmth

[Nick F]

A major sudden stratospheric warming began on Monday and this 3rd attempt at SSW this year in as many months looks to linger, with winds staying reversed for a while. This could eventually work down into the troposphere and affect weather patterns, increasing chances of high latitude blocking and colder weather in a few weeks or so.

View the full blog here

[TwisterGirl81]

 Nick F not again we had this last year and had to wait until mid May for proper warmth, not after the weather we have had the past several months, hope this doesn’t come to fruition 

[Azazel]

gross

[joggs]

Horrible if this comes to fruition.

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Seems to be fairly commonplace nowadays for the best of the wintry setups to happen during spring, whereas any promising wintry looking charts during winter almost always come to nothing. 

Edited March 6 by Weather Enthusiast91

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Oh wow we are getting treated to another Spring 2023. How wonderful. Just what we need after months and months of cloudy, rainy weather 

[LetItSnow!]

Cheekily going to copy what I just wrote in another thread but it far more applies here:

With the global reserve for warmer than average conditions being off the scale I personally think a cool spring is unlikely, but it happened in 2021 so it’s not out of the question it could happen again. We are somewhat similar globally to 1998 and that saw a dramatic flip to cool conditions in April so, along with an SSW, I do think wintry spells are likely this spring, but whether they are isolated spells within a mild season or it turns genuinely colder than average, we will wait and see. 

Scandinavian countries have seen a notable period of well below normal temperatures for the most part since October last year so it goes to show you it is possible if all things land in our favour and seasons like spring 2021 and also the first half of December 2022 are big reasons why I refuse to accept the notion that UK cold is confined to history — however I would like to see our luck pay off for winter 2024/2025 instead of spring 2024! 

Advanced vegetation after a very mild winter could negatively be affected by a cold spring. 

[B87]

Another horrible March, April and 1-15 May then? Just like last year.

Lets hope we have a summer of June 2023 ×3 to make up for it.

Edited March 6 by B87

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Nick F think also there is other variables to look at like the MJO and other wild card entries thrown in.  

[raz.org.rain]

I'm not too convinced it'll have any significant impact in western/northwestern Europe to be honest. If I were to bet on it, I'd say that any displaced cold will go straight into Eastern Europe and reach Turkey. In Western Europe would likely see our first warmer and drier spell of the year. I can imagine this SSW will help to shift the patterns that have had us stuck in a non-stop cycle of rain and transition us into a drier period.

[swebby]

 Nick F Many thanks Nick, an excellent blog piece.

[Cheshire Freeze]

My hunch is we’ll see some sort of Greenland blocking take hold at some point this month.

We’ve seen repeated attempts at retrogressing HP west from Scandi…with a malleable strat profile it’ll only be a matter of time until it succeeds.

My punt has been on a colder than average spring for a long while. 

[SollyOlly]

Plenty of time for summer heat, in the summer...where it belongs.

[Derecho]

3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Oh wow we are getting treated to another Spring 2023

Bear in mind Sudden South Westerlies usually bring warmth across the UK 

In all seriousness however, I expect we will see a blocked pattern throughout this Spring but we are getting to the time of year where that doesn't automatically equate to cold...

[B87]

 SollyOlly and spring should bring springlike conditions (mild to warm and dry) not a continuation of winter.

[SollyOlly]

 B87 Sure, no problem with that. Didn't get a winter this year, though...WINO - Winter In Name Only!

[danm]

The problem here, just like last year, is this won’t deliver the wintry nirvana some still hope for, as it’s too late in the year, and it will delay the Spring warmth the rest of us now want. All we’ll end up with is a chilly/cold middle ground that pleases no one. 

Unless the blocking sets up in a pattern that delivers warmth, which is still possible. 

[cheeky_monkey]

 In Absence of True Seasons i would be happy with a repeat of spring 2023 here ..May 2023 was beautifully warm sunny and dry and was the warmest month of the year for daytime highs got above 31c on 3 of the first 4 days of the month..April was also relatively warm and sunny 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 danm Precisely

[Shillitocettwo]

March seems to identify as Winter these days and February Spring!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 danm that is what I think will come off precisely.    Also it will be very interesting on how we flip from el niño to neutral to then la niña, but there are other factors like the MJO, solar activity and the NAO, alongside the PDO and other bits and bobs.    

[damianslaw]

 Weather Enthusiast91 Normal practice, spring typically delivers more northerly and easterly airstreams than the other 3 seasons. 

[Metwatch]

I can't see a 2023 repeat being that likely, but anything is possible with the weather, time will tell as always what will happen. I like to hope for the best but expect the worst.

April 2020 looked quite blocked at the start but then we still went into warmth, however I don't think there was much in the way of an SSW in February / March that year.

Edited March 6 by Metwatch

[Northernlights]

 damianslaw In my 5 decades of farming March has aways been the hungriest month of the year for the animals on the farm. To me up here it has always been a winter month much more so than December (2010 excepted) sea temperatures are at their lowest, proximity to the arctic with more frequent north and east winds less modification. My birthday in early April has seen a lot of falling snow settling well overnight.. My mother who moved up here in the early sixties was a Londoner who used to say" spring doesn"t happen in Scotland summer arrives on the first of June" with the exception of  the first of June 1975

Right up to midsummers day these north and east winds can bring fresh snow to the mountain tops. Because of the strength of light we can get some really arctic skies until late June especially in the evenings

[SunnyG]

It seems to me that some people are obsessed with cold weather