Will 2024 have the new hottest day on record for the uk?

[Summerlover2006]

Title basically says the whole post what is everyone thinking?

Edited May 1 by Summerlover2006

[*Stormforce~beka*]

No

[Don]

Who knows these days?!  During the last 10 years we have had several heat spikes with the hottest day on record (at the time) achieved in July 2019 in what was otherwise not a particularly hot summer.  Obviously that record fell in July 2022 in what was a genuinely hot summer but even then that came in the form of a heat spike.

[B87]

Absolutely no chance with the unprecedented amount of rainfall we have had over the last year. We will need pretty much zero rainfall for May and June to get the ideal soil moisture for July and August to attempt anything record breaking, and that just isn't going to happen.

I can't see us getting anything above 35c this year.

Edited May 1 by B87

[Met.]

Yes. It will reach 51.2°C at Emley Moor, on 1st October 2024.

[Harry233]

Probably very unlikely this year with how wet it has been. I’d imagine a maximum of between 31-34.C this year.

[Don]

 Met.

 B87 Good point!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I personally can't see us getting up to 40.3 °C again (let alone above) for quite some time. The ground would be too wet anyway with all the rain we've been having over the last 18 months. Even in this warming climate it takes a lot of effort and everything needs to fit perfectly into place.

Edited May 2 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Wade]

No, the reasoning is because we have had copious amounts of rain over the past year and when we reached 40.3 in 2022, it was very dry beforehand so I will bet we won't get to that benchmark this year. Next year? Who knows.

[Summer8906]

No.

That 2022 figure was exceptional and I doubt it's going to happen anytime soon again.

The wet ground has already been mentioned, though admittedly I guess it would go dry quickly if we had an exceptionally dry June.

I think it will go over 35C though, I'll say top temp 36-37C in a brief heat spike. To be followed by thunderless cold front and temps struggling to top 20C, accompanied by much Atlantic cloud and humidity plus drizzle showers, the day after.

To happen just after mid July. Plus at a guess there will be less-intense heat spikes in June and Aug (34C each) but outside of those, mostly cloudy and changeable with frequent weak Atlantic fronts and warm day temps restricted to eastern and inland locations. I do think the summer will be drier overall than summer-autumn-winter-spring 23/24 though, as surely this eternal wet weather can't carry on forever?

Basically I can see the summer being WSW-ly but with pressure about average (not below).

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[Summerlover2006]

 Summer8906 so like a 2020 situation is your prediction?

Edited May 2 by Summerlover2006

[Summer8906]

 Summerlover2006 Yes, something a bit 2020-ish or 2019-ish (but with a less intense heat spike), simply because that seems to be about average for nowadays.

[Summerlover2006]

 Summer8906 id much rather have a 2019 then a 2020 from what it seems June was alright in the last 10 days July was mostly warm and august I wouldn’t call a flop either because of the hot spell 2020 just seemed to be wet and dull apart from like 10 days 

[Summer8906]

 Summerlover2006 Difficult to call between the two of them here. Here the second half of July 2020 wasn't too bad, warm and dry and the sun even came out on some days. July 2019 was better than anything in 2020, but June 2019 was (according to second hand reports - I was away) worse than anything in 2020.

Perhaps 2019 was slightly better, thinking about it. I think the six months were, in order from best to worst:

1. July 2019

2. July 2020

3. August 2019

4. June 2020

5. August 2020

6. June 2019

Edited May 2 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

I hope not. I don’t think so. Safe to assume something between 32-35C nowadays. 

I really do hate what summer has become in the past ten years though. Humid and heat-spikey but rarely with the thunderstorms you’d expect between differing airmasses. You can’t get the novelty of a very cool month because warm minima and a rogue 35-40C in your face. Easily my least favourite season now. 

If we stay unsettled, retain soil moisture and avoid any satanic plumes from the south then 30-32C is a safe bet. If we dry out a bit but remain changeable then probably 32-34C. If we remain unsettled and get those spikes then 35-37C, and finally if we dry out and get heat spikes/very hot patterns over the summer then probably 36-38C. I don’t see 40C going again. Though I disagree with the idea that 40C won’t be reached again for a long time. We breached 37C in three summers in 3 years and in the spells/years that we missed (August 2021 an example) parts of the continent baked in the mid/upper 40s). I do sadly think we may see 40C again before the decade is over.

Rant over, my guess is that the summer will be a changeable and rather disappointing affair to most people but not to a 2012 level, therefor I am going for a modest 32.8C. 

[Summer8906]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

I really do hate what summer has become in the past ten years though. Humid and heat-spikey but rarely with the thunderstorms you’d expect between differing airmasses.

A perfect summary of the contemporary summer!

So do you too see something vaguely in the same ballpark as 2020 or 2019?

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 I probably see it closer to 2015, though perhaps with a reduced chance of such an intense spike. 

[Catbrainz]

No 49C this year. I’m going to say a max of 36-37C

[Summer8906]

 LetItSnow! Thinking about it, I'm just trying to figure out how 2015 differed from 2020. I guess they were fairly similar but there was slightly more north-of-west in 2015, so it was cooler. Cloudiness and rainfall, and frequency of Atlantic air, about the same, though.

[LetItSnow!]

 Summer8906 Not to get too off topic but the cold blob in the Atlantic really effected the north-west in 2015 and that was evident in the temperature anomaly. The south-east just about escaped the worst. There was a strong gradient between a hot European summer and very cool anomalies in the west. These are the "old and cold" anomalies for Ireland, they had an exceptionally cool summer even by 20th century standards in 2015.

2020 was similar but the high was further north so we tapped into the hot weather easier. Instead of a one day wonder we got that hot week in August 2020.

Rain and sun (2015 first, 2020 second)

Weirdly, despite being warmer 2020 seems to be the far worse of the two!

But yes I feel like summer 2024 will moderate the extremes of 2022 and 2023 somewhat and just be mixed, probably one dud month but equally one alright month. If a warm May comes to fruition and that looks quite solid at the mo', then its following the 1998 pattern of things and the summer collapsed shortly after. So in my mind I'm thinking bits and pieces of 1998, 2001 and 2015. Unsettled but not one for the record books and a more normal annual high of 32-33C, but I wouldn't wanna guess what month and date it will occur.

 

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 Had to look at Met Office amomly maps as both summers were very beign and forgettable which means for me not outstanding but not terrible ether. 2020 is slightly worse of the two being wetter and cloudier overall while 2015 is a very bog standard summer average rain and sun but slightly cooler than average. I’d agree with you on wind direction. 

[Don]

 LetItSnow! 2015 was the first to feature a heat spike.  Apart from that, a very mediocre summer.

[Derecho]

Yeah 2015 had a reasonable June when I was in Southampton. First half of July was decent but the second half was awful, especially when I was in Norfolk. August I was back in Southampton again and that was a bit of a washout.

[raz.org.rain]

 LetItSnow! it's worth noting that the cold blob anomaly is often more associated with hotter and drier summer anomalies in northwestern Europe. There are numerous studies that delve into that hypothesis, the more recent being that of Oltmanns, Holliday et al. Said authors go as far as suggesting that a 2018-2022 style repeat is imminent within the next five years based on last year's freshwater increase rate.

[LetItSnow!]

 raz.org.rain 

Both interest me as much as a nail in the foot. I'd rather keep England's luscious fields green but unfortunately, regardless of what happens, the weather will do what it will regardless of whether we like it or not! Probably best to keep those topics to where they belong though.