Will 2024 have the new hottest day on record for the uk?

[Derecho]

 raz.org.rain I guess the westerlies in 2015 were influential enough to keep the heat further SE. There is definitely evidence to support the theory that the cold blob encourages more heat to build over Europe.

2015 however was particularly unusual however in that the temperatures to the south of Greenland were record breakingly cold. This likely allowed for the cool air to influence the synoptics over a wider area.

The brief period the westerlies relented was when we saw that 1 day plume at the start of July.

Interestingly I recall a NAVGEM run going for 44C in Cambridgeshire in the lead up to that. GFS also had a few runs that saw temps above 40C. I remember it very well as it was the first time I saw 40C on a model run over the UK. Only other times after that were August 2018 and July 2019 before July 2022 of course came along.

Some model runs indicated that plume would last several days but in the end the heat only moved across us on the 1st July before it waned.

Edited May 2 by Derecho

[B87]

 Summer8906 June and July 2015 were pretty average temperature and sunshine wise, although in July's case the heat spike masked a poor 2nd half. August 2015 was absolutely awful; cool, very dull and exceptionally wet.

In summer 2020, every month was slightly duller than average. June and August were warm, with a slightly below average July. Mid-July to mid-August was dry and sunny though.

[Summerlover2006]

The biggest difference between 2015 and 2020 I would say is that the heat was a lot more spread out in 2020 with small heatwaves but with cool and cloudy weather for weeks but summer 2015 was more one sided with the second half of July and basically all of august being bad 

[cheeky_monkey]

with the transition from strong El Nino into La Nina we may see a summer similar to 1998 

[raz.org.rain]

 cheeky_monkey the analogues aren't particularly strong so I'm less convinced.

[Summerlover2006]

 cheeky_monkey i really hope not 1998 sounds pretty miserable I just want a warm summer is that to much to ask for

[LetItSnow!]

 raz.org.rain This year has played out uncannily similar to 1998 though just in different times. You never get an exact match. It's why I eye-roll people who search for exact matches of months in terms of C.E.T. It's more about the general pattern, even if they occur maybe in a different order.

[B87]

 cheeky_monkey The absolute last thing we need after the past 18 months - cool, wet and dull.

[Don]

 cheeky_monkey not sure we are looking at an abrupt transition to a strong Nina this year, so probably not?

[Earthshine]

Record number of tropical nights this year is my guess

[B87]

It seems a safe bet that the summer will be duller than average. Possibly with not even a single month getting 200+ hours here. 

[raz.org.rain]

Personally my expectation is that longevity of significantly above average temperatures could very well be the theme of this summer. It wouldn't at all surprise me it if turned out to be wetter and duller than average and yet we see a near record consecutive run of +30°c days and a record number of tropical nights. So basically something along the lines of 2019 but with much more warmth, although I'd be equally less surprised if we see a sudden flip to considerably drier than average and end up with something closer to 2018.

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 I don't see why that's a safe bet at all other than through pure cynicism. Obviously any predictions are pretty much guesswork but to not get a single month above 200 hours of sunshine between May and September is a pretty rare occurrence for your location, surely?

[WYorksWeather]

To answer the original question, I don't think 2024 will see the hottest day on record, but to be honest that's always the safer bet. To give a view of where I see the probability more broadly, I think it's 50-50 whether the Coningsby record will survive until 2030 and overwhelmingly likely that it won't survive until 2040.

I do echo @raz.org.rain's comment I think - I wonder whether this summer might be consistently warm to hot (likely humid with very mild sea surface temperatures) rather than having ridiculous heat spikes. In other words we could see monthly CET / UK records challenged or broken and have a very warm summer overall, but with an absolute max around 35-36C, which is no longer that exceptional.

[B87]

 WYorksWeather It happened in 2021 (the dullest year on record). The last year not to see any 200+ hour months at all was 1987, so it is an extremely rare occurrence, yet I just feel like it'll happen this year.

It feels like the weather is just not going to settle down into its usual warm season state this year.

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

If a warm May comes to fruition and that looks quite solid at the mo

Not sure about this as (round here at least) it's been pretty cool by day at least so far, and the GFS is frequently suggesting a cool cyclonic type with the winds typically between W and N from the 13th onwards. I think there's something of a chance May could be average or even slightly below.

 LetItSnow! What we  have lacked though is the long dry spell of early 1998, between mid-Jan and end of Feb.

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Weirdly, despite being warmer 2020 seems to be the far worse of the two!

I know what you mean overall, though in central southern England it appears there was little to choose between them in that respect.

I will say that June 2015 was good here, though, while in 2020 I wouldn't rate any of the three months as "good".

Interesting that summer 2015 was sunnier than average in many parts of the country - but dull here. Another example of coastal central southern England having it bad in recent summers. June was the best month as I said but ISTR later in the summer there were more SW-ly periods, hence more dullness compared to more sheltered areas, perhaps.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Short answer - No. 

We will be lucky to get average level sunshine hours this summer. I imagine we'll also get below our usual number of 30c+ days for London, same as last year. 

Wouldn't be surprised if we don't see a single 25c day in May. Anything over 20c will be a rarity.

[cheeky_monkey]

 Don i would say we are 6 weeks ahead in moving into La Nina than we were in 1998 

[Summerlover2006]

 cheeky_monkey what does mean for summer then ??  I’m quite new getting into weather so I don’t know how La Niña effects us 

[danm]

What's working against a record temperature is the wet ground. We'd need things to dry out substantially if we're going to break 40c again. 

Other than that, however, it is just guess work. Saying it's likely to be dull because the past few months have been dull means nothing.

[B87]

 Summer8906 Both were duller than average here as well.

2015: Jun 222hr, Jul 214hr, Aug 152hr

2020: Jun 199hr, Jul 195hr, Aug 181hr

[Don]

 cheeky_monkey Interesting! 

I suppose for summer prospects, perhaps it will come down to the strength of the La Nina we are going into?  Some forecasts are going for a moderate event, whilst others are going for something stronger.

[Don]

15 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I wonder whether this summer might be consistently warm to hot (likely humid with very mild sea surface temperatures)

I hope not, that would be the worst scenario for me, hot and humid for long periods!  

I will go as far to say that I would rather a 2007 washout!  On the other hand, I would be reasonably happy with a 2018 redux, which for a large part wasn't too humid.

Edited May 3 by Don

[cheeky_monkey]

 Summerlover2006 as i no longer live in the UK i thinks the effects of La Nina on the summer are less pronounced than they are here where i am