Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

we all know the damn thing will end up in France, to leave many low areas snowless Crewe/Staffs

[Day 10]

 WillinGlossop

Amazing pics there Will

 Rush2019

You need to get your toy snowman & penguin out for good luck

[damianslaw]

A non-descript day for first day of February. Indeed struggling to pass comment..

[Joe Snow]

Gorgeous Sunset tonight lots of nice pinks & burnt orange colours. February might bring some surprises but I’m really not believing any snow charts till at least 48hrs out - as a region we’ve done well from the scraps of snow this winter has delivered both in early Dec & Mid January, will it be a case of third time lucky?  

[iand61]

Bright but a chilly raw feel just about sums up todays conditions with some lovely pink colours in the sunset tonight.

as for the excitement building about next weeks snow chances.

thankfully we are into February with the noticeable lengthening of daylight so, while I’m not in full blown spring mode, I am at that point where I can take or leave a snowy spell so no major disappointment from me if a threatened blizzard ends up being downgraded into a 14c southerly breeze at the last moment.

that said though, the charts look good but if a week is a long time in politics, it’s a lifetime in current UK forecasting.

 

[Dark Horse]

Not getting sucked into beyond 5 days. Going to give it a few more days and if these narnia charts get closer it might be time to pop the cork. One thing I like about Feb snow is I enjoy it better as we have a bit more daylight to see it longer but it's not stupidly late in the season, like March, that the sun destroys it in no time. That was the case during the mini beast in 17th-18th March 2018. 5 inches of snow but most of it was gone by the evening. The sun definitely has a bit of strength to it by then. I notice this every year not the case at the start of the month but by mid March and you know proper spring is close with that higher sun.

[itsnowjoke]

Lovely skies tonight but was a cold afternoon I thought a bit if wind nothing to speak of and dry 

[Rush2019]

 Day 10

5 hours ago, Day 10 said:

You need to get your toy snowman & penguin out for good luck

Snowman, penguin and your garden gnome are out   we need all the support we can get, a week is a very long time in weather world.

[Had Worse]

 Rush2019 I can see why the snowman is blushing,  that must be painful. 

[Rush2019]

 Had Worse   oh so that was why the penguin was laughing.

[Ghost of winters past]

Wishing on a star...wishing on a.....: Damn scrap that !   Need snow

[iand61]

BBC forecast mentioned it getting colder next week and talked about snow but then put more specifics on the geography and gave much of England a kick where it hurts by saying less cold here and probably cold rain and this is backed up by the Met app for here which hasn’t got a flake in sight as far as it goes out.

can’t beat a bit of cold rain

[Had Worse]

Peeps jumping the gun on the Mod thread. 

ECM and UKMO have the boundary much further North at the moment.  You only have to look at Edinburgh and that has one sleet period. 

The met office do mention the boundary but were unsure where it was going to be positioned. 

[Weather-history]

July 2023-January 2024 is around 1015mm for the region. Total has gone up, thanks to the downpours of the evening of the 31st January.

That's an average of 4.7mm per day.

Compare to Jul 1995-January 1996 which was 374mm with an average of 1.7mm

Considering those rainfall totals, we have been pretty lucky flooding wise. 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Were on  

[Day 10]

Morning all.

The Met update - Tues 6th - Thurs 15th

Most likely unsettled at first for much of the UK. Turning colder across northern areas with showers, which will turn wintery at times especially over higher ground but to lower levels at times too. Cloud and rain being pushed in from the Atlantic may well be forced to track further south across the south of the country where it may remain milder but with more persistent rain, especially in the west. Exactly where the boundary between these two regimes lies is still rather uncertain at the moment. However, there is a chance of wintery conditions developing more widely across the northern edge of this boundary through the second half of next week for a time.

A couple of charts from the latest GFS & ECM.

A perfect illustration of how difficult the up and coming cold spell is going to be forecast, someone could well end up with a few days of snowfall here. Obviously this will chop and change quite a bit yet but this looks far more interesting than the last cold spell.

[Had Worse]

 Iceaxecrampon The way to the toilet?

[Rush2019]

Morning .  Looks quite foggy on the tops.  Nudging 7°C, 9am,  clear and dry at lower levels.  The birds were very vocal this am, so put extra food out.

[WillinGlossop]

Foggy 6.5c starting to lift to low cloud hugging hills… brighter… off for walk after second coffee ️ 

[A Face like Thunder]

A bright rather than sunny start here this morning. Nice sunrise and hopefully not a 'warning' of things to come.

[Scuba steve]

 Rush2019 pretty damp and miserable here off down  to your neck of the woods soon 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Overcast Breezy. 
Winds picking up later apparently 

Tebay or Roanhead for a head clearer with terriers later after a difficult week. 

[Rush2019]

 Scuba steve   Ah, paying Bollington, the 'Happy Valley' a visit are you?  I can see White Nancy just about from an upstairs window, I'll give you a wave.  Please bring some snow, if not, cold sunshine will suffice

[Had Worse]

 Rush2019 and some Kendal mint cake

Edited February 2 by Had Worse

[Rush2019]

It's  groundhog day, forget the models, let's see if the groundhog sees his shadow or not.  Apparently he will be out in just over an hour in Pennsylvania.