Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Day 10]

 cheshire snow

Not looking past Thurs, I still think it's not quite settled yet but somewhere is going to get pasted.

[cheshire snow]

 Day 10 indeed mate

not a done deal by any means it’s has been an okay day but need some upgrades tomorrow.

[itsnowjoke]

Still wild out can hear it over the tv

[cheshire snow]

BBC weather on just now graphics very similar to the ECM,obviously as always stated the uncertainty but did say it was the likely outcome,and with temperatures south of Brum at 9c you would think it won’t be far off.

[Thunder Snow]

Thursday is back to looking good rather have it sliding across instead of marching north 

[Joe Snow]

If Thursday's snowfall comes off it might be one of those now quite rare Midlands northwards battleground snow events - somewhere could get some significant snowfall (a dumping) from it though as it looks currently, really don't envy the pro forecasters having to make the call between heavy disruptive wet snowfall over most Northern & Midlands Cities - MCR, Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Stoke perhaps as far south as Birmingham and a Peaks & Pennines event with a wintry mix largely of cold rain to lower ground. We could see a slight further shift south and north too lots to keep an eye on and we won't really know till Tues I am guessing. 

[Chris.R]

18Z another improvement Wednesday – Friday. A bit dodgy after that but things seem to be improving as they come closer.

[Chris.R]

Biggest improvement is cold air digs further south before the low on Thursday and is mixed out slower.

[WillinGlossop]

Latest xc weather 25cm here.. very much doubt that… would be happy to have a foot of snow… but that’s going to be 5-10cm when come to fruition at best… 

[East Lancs Rain]

Another overcast and windy day here like so many have been this winter. Haven’t had any rain though, which makes a change… The high was 11°C. 
 

Looking like it’s just going to be lots of cold rain for most next week, the worst kind of weather, unless you are at elevation. High of 3/4°C and heavy rain all day on Thursday here. Luvly…

[severe snowstorm]

The symbols have upgraded further for my location on Thursday on the metoffice website, now have several sleet symbols and one snow symbol. Not to be taken literally of course, but nice to see the increasing potential.

[Had Worse]

 severe snowstorm The BBC automated forecast has heavy rain for Glossop and just a bit of sleet for Buxton .

[severe snowstorm]

 Had Worse  Heavy snow showing for Buxton on metoffice site. I think we'll stick with the pros!

Seriously though, some parts of the region could be absolutely plastered on Thursday, even to low ground. The likes of @WillinGlossop and @iand61 can certainly be very confident at this stage with their elevation.

[Day 10]

 severe snowstorm

Same here, gone from heavy rain to heavy sleet. Another little tweak and this could be brilliant. I'll get some charts up later.

 severe snowstorm

I've found the met apps to be more accurate than most

[severe snowstorm]

 Day 10 Yeah, agreed. I'm assuming the metoffice output is just the raw UKMO model data?

Things are still evolving in terms of the position of the low on Thursday. I'm assuming the met will wait until tomorrow before issuing any warnings for Thursday until confidence is higher on the track.

[Day 10]

 severe snowstorm

No time, quick one...

[Joe Snow]

Lots could still change but we are seeing upgrades as we get closer to the event - still think lower ground in the south of the region & on the coast will see a wintry mix of sleet & heavy wet snow but even here accumulation. Peak District, Pennines into the N Midlands look the sweet spot this AM. 

[cheshire snow]

A very interesting update below for Thursday,possibly an early warning.

wording suggests a lengthy spell of snow before turning back to rain during Friday at lower levels.

[severe snowstorm]

 Joe Snow Yes, things have been upgrading as we get closer to the event which is not normally the case and only 72 hours away now so confidence on the track will be ever increasing.

[severe snowstorm]

 cheshire snow Should I start waxing my sledge in anticipation!?

[cheshire snow]

 severe snowstorm No

seriously though I do think the track of the low is coming into view now maybe a bit more North/South saga to come,but overall I would now back the ECM as been about correct position at such short range.

[severe snowstorm]

 cheshire snow ECM looks good. However, we just have to be mindful that there is a lot of will power being used in the mod thread to suck everything South, which I don't think has been programmed into the models

[Had Worse]

 cheshire snow Avanti, LNER and X-Country trains will be packed as the Southern contingent head North to our regional hoping to see significant snow.

in the meantime,  breezy,  grey and actually dry.

One place I can guarantee that will be white is the walls and ceiling that I'm painting. 

[Spah1]

I might go and rent a house up a big hill. 

[frosty ground]

freezing rain still on the menu.

met office app has a day of snow with temps slightly above freezing.