Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Spah1]

Miles too warm

[Weather-history]

The complexities of snowfall can be baffling at times. I have seen snow falling when the 850ha is above 0°C. There was the snowfall during early February 2018 that wasn't even marginal and yet not one snowflake stuck or even look like sticking and  marginal snowfalls where it does stick.   I have seen rain, sleet, snow alternating. The start of March 1995 cold zonality started off as rain that suddenly turned to ice pellets and then to snow that started to stick. Late February 2005, when eastern parts of Greater Manchester were getting a dumping, the snow turned to rain on lower ground and it was mostly dry for the rest of day with no apparent change in the airmass. 

Edited February 5 by Weather-history

[Day 10]

Pleased it's the best model showing the best solution...

[Dan B]

It's supposed to be 9ºC and a breeze

 

In reality it feels about 4ºC and it's blustery as hell! 

[A Face like Thunder]

 Day 10 yes, that was one of two models shown on last night's 7 day forecast on BBC Countryfile. The other model had any snow further north. Understandably hedging their bets at this stage, but an interesting time ahead I think.

I was thinking back 28 years today to 5th Feb 1996 when snow was dumped in copious amounts in a thin line up the West coast including the Fylde where I was living at the time. This followed a sustained cold period in the area and I wonder whether the fact that this week (so far) has been mild will have any effect on the amount of snow (if any) that falls on the Region on Thursday.

A pleasant enough start to today, bright and calm but no sign of the sun. I can live with that.

 

[Day 10]

 A Face like Thunder

Yes, I remember that too, I was in 6th form at the time. We ended up with about 6 inches, I believe you had a lot more up there?

Edited February 5 by Day 10

[Weather-history]

 A Face like Thunder Remember it well

 

However it was all gone by that Friday, at least for low ground. The snow cover never even made it into the following weekend,  don't recall a snowy breakdown here. 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Kirkwood says yes  

 

[frosty ground]

Warning issued for Thursday 

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Spah1

Yes. Most probable outcome. 

[pip22]

A weather warning has been put out for Thursday and Friday for snow!!

[Iceaxecrampon]

 severe snowstorm

[frosty ground]

I would put the totals shown on some of these models in the bin, high ground mostly event 

A band of rain, sleet, and increasingly snow, will push north on Thursday bringing up to 2cm snow at lower-levels, 2-5cm on ground above 200m, and perhaps as much as 10-20cm above 400m. The snow will ease later in the day, and may turn back to rain or drizzle, especially in the south and east of the area. There is some uncertainty with respect to the rain/snow boundary, and the northern limit of the snow, and so details may change in the coming days as confidence increases in these aspects.

[Weather-history]

 pip22

Warning covers quite far south as well. As far south as Worcester

[Spah1]

2cm for low areas. 
 

Would be so excited if I lived in Rossendale! 

 

Edited February 5 by Spah1

[Day 10]

Always happy just to see everything white tbh whatever the depth.

I still think we need to wait until tomorrow eve before pinning down the track as I will never ever forget the one a few years back, amber warning vanishing 48 hours before the event that stayed in Wales and only skirted here after looking so good for a few days. We are well overdue a good one.

Edited February 5 by Day 10

[Spah1]

How can a massive low pressure system give 2cm. If its snow and not rain surely it should be a good dumping ????

[Day 10]

GFS still very progressive blowing the low up.

[frosty ground]

 Spah1 depends on how long the snow is around, if it’s only snow for an hour out of 10 then your not getting a lot of snow.

[pip22]

The weather warning is on the Sky News headlines as well.

[frosty ground]

 Day 10 yep, and the usual suspects in the MAD thread are declaring it right.

[cheshire snow]

Ah the warning debate,again a warning not a guarantee,I think they have used there own model for the warning and would expect the ECM to be more accurate,would not be surprised to see warning upgraded to amber by Wednesday.

very early estimates and not a ramp at this stage would be 5-7cm low ground before turning back to rain,anywhere 150m plus looking at a significant event here 15-20cm quite possible 

will wait to after the event to judge.

[Day 10]

 frosty ground

This time around I do feel the GFS is wrong, the ECM is normally very good in these situations about 3 days out plus the UKMO is more in line with it which adds more confidence.

I'm still not convinced yet, if we are seeing similar tomorrow then obviously confidence of a proper snow event increases.

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Spah1

Because you live in Chorley. And I’m on the Fylde.

[Day 10]

 cheshire snow

A good assessment mate and something I would agree with.