Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Chris.R]

 The Northern Ramper Oldham: 3 H light snow followed by 2 H heavy snow (to end of forecast).
T850 -4.0°C at 12Z. 

[Dark Horse]

It just doesn't look cold enough for me for anything significant. We'll see. Always on a knife edge isn't it, never simple lol. Are they still ramping up a SSW in the mad thread too for later this month? it'll arrive in March like last year, too late.

[wrightc23]

 Empire Of Snow Fuming over the lack of coverage for the south of the country on Thursday and annoyed that most of the models are not evolving in the way they'd hoped to something colder and the easterly they'd wanted.

Edited February 5 by wrightc23

[Chris.R]

 iand61 if I do I think I'll need more than an email address to log back in!

[Had Worse]

Unlikely to see any significant snow South of the central Midlands- reason is a push of high pressure from the Azores which pushes the cold northwards quickly. Making blizzard preparations here though, expecting a significant event.
 

 
 

Nice one @Kasim Awan

 

[Empire Of Snow]

 wrightc23 , afaik Thursday's event wasn't even on the cards until later last week especially for Midlands south. Now Midlands have a chance. It's one thing discussing each run even at 300h (absolutely fine with me, this is why it's a models thread) but it's another taking for granted charts after 96h and having a meltdown because they don't verify. 

Professionals are struggling even at 24h forecasts in all countries, especially in Europe. USA and Japan for many reasons are completely different and the meteorologists there have more tools on their hands plus the setups and patterns are a bit more straightforward. 

[Dark Horse]

The snow shield almost resembling a lobster claw squeezing the life out of Manchester or that "cool" hand gesture. But it ain't cool at all lol. When I see charts like this I can't get my hopes up. What do you think @Kasim Awan? is the Manchester area going to get a shield?
 

 

[Cheese Rice]

UKV seems to have upgraded somewhat looking more knife edge scenario for low ground where as at one point it was a none starter. 

[Joe Bloggs]

 Dark Horse if the winds are from an easterly quarter we’ll be looking at a dry slot or very light precipitation at best. 
 

Low heights (looks unlikely) or very very light winds/calm would perhaps save the day (also unlikely).

If you live in Manchester it’s not worth torturing yourself , we see this over and over again. 

[Cheese Rice]

Probably going to be another everywhere but the area stretching from Liverpool to Manchester (nothing knew there). 

The second front is looking like rain across the board but hopefully the first one brings some wintry flavour. 

[Cheese Rice]

With snowfall like this its impossible to call, a lot of varying factors, wind direction, evaporating cooling, intensity of ppn etc. Much harder to forecast than your standard NW'ly flow. 

Will be a nowcast situation for anyone below 150m, no doubt there'll be some surprises along the way.

[Slidergate '17]

I remember many moons ago first encountering the infamous "snow shield" and scoffed thinking that's just so ridiculous its completely impossible to verify... 

20 plus years later and I scoff and think the same .

[Weather-history]

Cumbria received a big snowfall back on the 9th February 1900, a day or two before the south of the region was hit by a big snowfall

[Joe Bloggs]

7 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:

 

I remember many moons ago first encountering the infamous "snow shield" and scoffed thinking that's just so ridiculous its completely impossible to verify... 

 

I didnt realise it was a thing until 2013. I saw a snowy frontal chart with a SE’ly and was told by Tom C on TWO - that setup doesn’t give snow to Manchester because of the peaks and he was spot on of course.

There will be occasions when snow has fallen and settled but I think it is very rare, either an EXTREMELY active front, very low heights and/or very light winds. 
 

I think Feb 1996 was a southerly ? And was a very active stalling front. 

[Spah1]

 Weather-history How on earth do you get charts from 1900 ???

[Day 10]

 Weather-history

Interesting read as always.

[Weather-history]

 Joe Bloggs

 

I posted a few months back of early March 1965 where incredibly there was hardly any snow around these parts whilst other areas were being buried by snow

Seems incredible looking from that chart

[Weather-history]

 Spah1

Wetterzentrale

Reanalysis archives

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

 

[Chris.R]

If when people say low heights they mean low geopotential heights then you can't get much lower than what's coming up.

Edited February 5 by Chris.R

[Joe Bloggs]

 Weather-history bonkers! 

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

If when people say low heights they mean low geopotential heights then you can't get much lower than what's coming up.

I’m sure it was @Kasim Awan who said to look out for the darker blues (lower 500 hPa geopotential heights) for signs of the shield effect being overridden. I could be talking rubbish.  

[frosty ground]

 Weather-history

Makes you think how the west of the region was affected by snow in that setup

[Chris.R]

 Joe Bloggs yeah it's probably true I'm not aware of why that is the case but if he says that is something to look out for then it will be. 
They seem quite low to me anyway.

Edited February 5 by Chris.R

[Kasim Awan]

I'm afraid there will be a fairly strong sheild effect in place but not as strong as a more SE flow as the flow is ESE this time.

500mb heights aren't particularly low, lower 500mb heights means frontal convection is less affected by surface interaction, but heights aren't quite low enough for this to take place. My take is a sleety mess for lowland Manchester / Cheshire with some temporary accumulations West Cheshire / Wirral, then a slight covering South / Eash Cheshire & >150m Greater Manchester, sharply increasing to 10cm+ above 250m.

[Day 10]

Back on phone but icon looks ok.