Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[frosty ground]

Looking like a washout for most tomorrow, shame really because it had the makings of a memorable fall

[WillinGlossop]

Yummy salmon encrout late lunch… 

just been out for an hour leaf blowing/tidying… chilly but so much nicer having a sunny dry day today… the light makes so much of a difference to your mood temp should drop tonight with clear skies -3/-4c 

 

[Day 10]

 frosty ground

Yes it seems to be quickly going backwards, gfs just started so lets see what that comes up with.

[damianslaw]

A slight dusting above about 600m, and very slight.

Hopeful for at least a temporary cover tomorrow provided the precipitation is heavy enough. Could be quite patchy in nature with pulses of light sleety/ snow interspersed with moderate or heavier bursts that puts down a cover but melts on contact.. feel we need sustained moderate to heavy outbreaks as per 16 Jan. As 16 Jan whatever lies will sadly thaw quick, but at least we then had a hard frost early hours and a couple of ice days after. It will all be gone by late Friday away from high ground. 

[Day 10]

GFS, maybe a few hours of transient snow. Looking a definite backtrack with the 12z's so far.

Hills will prob still do ok.

[Backtrack]

This event was always going to be a transient affair for ground below 400m, I can’t see any meaningful downgrades or anything to get too stirred up about. 
 

Plenty of moisture hitting colder air, starting as rain, colder air undercuts for a few hours turning it wintry before turning back to rain around 2pm for all of us away from high ground. 
 

In this particular battleground, the mild, sub-tropical air wins out. It was always looking like a wintry mess at lower elevations. However, get the intensity and you’re going to benefit.  
 

That warning map from @Kasim Awan’s Facebook page is silly though. You can’t have an immediate rain shadow for JUST Manchester and no where else. Too many memes and stuff on that page mate, you could have that as the best and most informative non-government meteorological page in the UK. 

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

This event was always going to be a transient affair for ground below 400m, I can’t see any meaningful downgrades or anything to get too stirred up about.

I disagree, yesterday and this morning where looking a hell of a lot better for certain areas than the latest 12z's.

[Backtrack]

 Day 10 I don’t think much has changed regarding low levels. At this range it’s hi-res modelling that interests me!

[Day 10]

 Backtrack

I do but nevermind!

[Kasim Awan]

Thoroughly knackered today so no update.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Definite lessening of the snow risk in general.

This winter has been crap, for want of a better word.

[Geordiesnow]

Said a few days ago, the air coming down from the north is just a wishy washy type of polar airmass, it's not true cold unless 850s are -8 or below and only Scotland gets that type of air.

I don't think there will be barely a frost tonight which rather sums it up.

So apart from high ground, then it's looking like a cold damp miserable day with a raw easterly wind. It was always a transient event in anycase so even the hills in this region will be going from snow to rain.

I think one thing to learn from this winter when looking at the models, a cold Scandinavia with low heights does very little to help our cold prospects, if anything it could be a hindrance but the lack of true blocking apart from that brief period which actually resulted in a true Arctic blast means we are always fighting against the odds.

[frosty ground]

 Geordiesnow 

well done you! You told everyone so. You are a winner high fives all round people.

Then again you only every highlight the negatives so no prizes this time.

at 300m I should see some snow ️ 

[Day 10]

 frosty ground

There are a few who pop up mate when it goes wrong or look like going wrong, they need to get a life or another hobbie! Yes it doesn't look great now but there have been times over the lat 24 hours particularly it looked a lot better.

[Harsh Climate]

 frosty ground

Such a shame, 2 days ago there was the possibility of Thursdays low pulling away back SE with a colder NE flow in behind for 24 hours.. Bringing the chance of round 2 with the precipitation heading back south or snow showers from North Sea. 

Instead we end up with that horrid Snow to rain event, we're you would be in ya class at school getting all excited at big flakes falling outside, only for the teacher to say 'It will turn to rain soon, get on with your class work!'... . That is my memories of winters as a child in the nineties...

This is a nineties winter so far!

[russwirral]

was saying to my brother before, this is an old school scenario of -  go to school, it snows and by the time you leave, its all gone.

 

Kids today need to learn all abut this kind of disappointment.  It hardens you

[Empire Of Snow]

 Harsh Climate , still better than nothing though. As it is very difficult/rare to get a proper snowmachine pattern I don't mind tomorrow's system. 

[Dark Horse]

 Harsh Climate your not wrong. I was born in 85 so most of my memories are from the 90s and after 96 in particular it was poor. Rarely did snow cover last even overnight. Funnily enough the heaviest snow that we had back then from 97-2000 was probably from the unusually cold April in 98. Had a really decent covering in that month. Decent winter overall in 2000-2001 but then for the most part rubbish until late 2008. Late Feb 2005 was ok though.

[russwirral]

 Dark Horse I was living in Ashton around 2002-2004 and there were plenty of snow events around those parts.  Christmas day and boxing day 2004 as an example.  There were a handful of snow events in that time period that put down 3-4" easily.  They werent bad years for snow.

 

Infact the more i think about it, 2006 wasnt too bad, and neither was 2008, I remember making a few snowmen with my son around that time, he would have been about 4 or 5

 

[Harsh Climate]

 Dark Horse  For me in the early 2000s some of my best snow falls came from North Westerlies! Potent showers feeding through gaps in the pennines down the wharfedale valley to Otley. Usually melted quickly but something else seeing snow rates of 3'' or  4''/hour dropping a few cm in half hour from horizontal snow! 

Whatever happens tomorrow my expectations are low so won't be disappointed if don't see much.

[Mark_p]

There will still be a nowcast element to this. The radar will tell us more when we see how substantial the precipitation is and how fast it’s moving north. I admit I am hopecasting

[Harsh Climate]

 Mark_p

Where there is real blobs of intensity that sticks around on radar locally that can be game changing and what throws many a forecaster. 

Evaporative cooling with high snowfall rates can put a lot down very quickly! 

[Dark Horse]

 russwirral I was living in Ashton funnily enough in 2004 going up towards Mossley. And yeah I completely forgot about the Xmas day snow, gave a few inches but didn't last all that long on the ground. Definitely wasn't part of a significant cold spell so just another fleeting event unfortunately.

[Backtrack]

GFS 12Z looks fine to me. 

[damianslaw]

Evaporative cooling will be the key factor tomorrow. Where precipitation is heaviest this will increase risk of snow rather than rain. Altitude as always plays its part, higher up you are higher risk of snow. Distance from coast, relief, aspect all key factors as well.

Upper air temps in these scenarios don't need to be low for snow, indeed close to 0 degree 850hpa air is enough, but of dewpoints are above 0 degrees it will be rain.

Await the radar early morning with interest..