Moans, ramps and banter

[johncam]

 *Stormforce~beka* join the club Becca , that's us all year 

[Summer8906]

Still seems to be a bit less mild than forecast, somewhat chilly both yesterday and today, only Monday of the past few days has felt really mild.

However unexpectedly damp today. I'm sure it was supposed to be dry.

Also very gloomy this week. The gains in daylight we had at the weekend have been wiped out, looks like the final 12 days of January will be really seriously dull.

2023's gloom continues for now, and the GFS paints a not terribly encouraging mix of anticyclonic SW-lies (at first) and cyclonic weather (later) for the first 10 days or so of Feb.

Maybe in two weeks we'll have some brightness. A dull Feb is a real killer of any feeling that we're getting towards spring, so I hope things improve soon. Last few days have felt like one step forwards, two steps back and today could easily pass for an afternoon in mid-Dec, despite apparently gaining 55 mins of evening daylight.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 jtay What a dismal forecast. It just seems to be endless dull, dull, dull since the end of June last year. Even that Sep hot spell was only sunny for about 7 days. We must be looking at one of the dullest 9-month periods on record for the 9 months beginning July 2023, unless March is very sunny indeed.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 hopefully the rest of 2024 will compensate with wall to wall sunshine, but we never seem to get a constant stream of good weather...

Edited January 31 by raz.org.rain

[East Lancs Rain]

47 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

It was sunny yesterday, drizzle and overcast the day before, and sunny the day before that. Something along those lines anyway.

Yesterday was mostly sunny here, heavy rain and overcast the day before, and dry and overcast the day before that. Weather’s definitely worse up here… Today overcast and windy but dry up until now.. Just started raining and it’s currently 8.8°C.

18 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

probably get a really cold Spring, often the case when we get a sketchy winter like this.....

Not really, mild and wet winters are often followed by good springs. Winter 2019/20, winter 2016/17 and winter 2013/14 good example. Cold springs are usually preceded by cold winters. Winter 2017/18 and winter 2012/13 good examples.

23 hours ago, SunnyG said:

How do those poor people bear it? Heroes that's what they are.

Probably better than what you think. Back on that record breaking hot day in July 2022, when most of the country was sweltering, Lerwick had rain and 14°C… However, the people didn’t seem too bothered by it, they were just like “meh, were used to it”. One woman even said she liked it lol. Felt a bit sorry when the woman said “it’s sad really because we haven’t really had a summer”.
 

The heat was widespread across England on that day though. I didn’t have a weather station then but I put an anologue thermometer outside and at one point it was showing mid 30’s. It didn’t feel quite as hot as that though due to the very low humidity on that day. I remember I had a day in July last year where it was raining all day with a top temp of about 14°C.. Typical Lerwick summer day. Liquid sunshine lol.

 

On 30/01/2024 at 12:15, Metwatch said:

I remember I went for 2 days in mid October back in 2022, got very lucky with largely clear skies in what was a wet month, that is normally already one of the wettest in the year! I think it was only 2 of the 3-4 dry days in that whole month.

Shows how bad the climate is up in the Lake District! ️️️

 

Anyway, only a month and a day to go until the start of meteorological spring. Let’s hope it’s a warm, dry and sunny March this year.

[raz.org.rain]

7 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Not really, mild and wet winters are often followed by good springs. Winter 2019/20, winter 2016/17 and winter 2013/14 good example. Cold springs are usually preceded by cold winters. Winter 2017/18 and winter 2012/13 good examples.

I hope so, the past few years have felt like a real mixed bag. At some point I'm hoping we'll get a really good spring followed by a really good summer, I can't remember the last time we had a really warm and dry spring followed by a proper summer with plenty of sunshine and heat. Sod's Law of climate change says it has to happen eventually.

[Metwatch]

A part of me doesn't want March to be too mild and dry as that can mean the rest of spring and a lot of summer aren't good. 2012 a prime example, But I think there are others like 1998 and 2017. The exception would be 2022 and maybe 1997, although spring 2022 wasn't superb, the March wasn't that bad especially the second half, then summer was a hot one. 1997 summer sounds alright but with a poor June. 2014 another one.

Edited January 31 by Metwatch

[cheeky_monkey]

 Metwatch March 1990 was very dry and very mild..summer 1990 was decent 

[raz.org.rain]

 Metwatch I'm not expecting March to be a warm one, realistically. I get the impression that whatever it giving us these signals for a cold second half of February will end up getting pushed into March instead. However, I'm not convinced it will be anything more than around average temperatures with a very muted colder bias. Basically a repeat of what we had in early January.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain Hopefully. Nonetheless it looks like February "could" be the 8th poor-ish month on the trot depending on what happens mid month. This is certainly the longest streak of months I would consider "below average" for weather "quality" (not temp!) for a long time, perhaps even in my remembered memory. Just constant dull, damp, unsettled weather streaming in off the Atlantic now for 7 months and counting, broken only by two short 2-week interludes in early Sep and earlier this month, and the first half of February seems to be offering more of the same. About 7-10 days of dull with risk of a repeat of today's conditions, followed by perhaps 5 days of extremely wet, on current GFS runs.

My feelings (read: hopecast) are for a fine sunny spring as surely this streak of poor weather can't go on forever? More sceptical about summer simply because on average we seem to get a decent summer about every 4 years, and the next isn't "due" until 2026.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[East Lancs Rain]

At least it’s going to be dry where you are and also be very mild for the time of year. Here is my forecast…. 
 

Oh well, at least it will be mild…

 

And as it has been so wet the last few months, I thought it would be a good time to post this.

 

https://youtu.be/PEddNAMvCig?si=EWdb1g64bLGZvSH_

[Downburst]

Thing about Spring is you can get great days on and off,  as the season rolls on and the sun gets higher. But the fact is it's just as cold in February as January and with cold seas the wind can be perishing (don't hear that word anymore) right through March. So I'm happy with February tomorrow, but keeping a close watch on the winter fightback.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain I'm not so sure. Mild and damp winters often precede mild and dry (and sunny) Marches.

Could be cold weather at times in April though.

Just gut feeling based on what's gone before, though.

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 as long as it doesn't ruin the chances of an actual summer I wouldn't mind. It's just the prospect of having another cool and wet summer when we've literally had that since September that depresses me.

[Summer8906]

 Metwatch Mind you March 1998, despite being mild, was neither dry nor sunny. Not a great March, certainly one of the poorest of the 90s. Largely dull and wet apart from about 10 days mid-month when it was dull and dry instead.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain Yes I wouldn't like a cool wet summer, on the other hand I don't want to have to put up with another 4 months of Atlantic-dominated dull wet weather before summer arrives. We need a serious break from it very soon, and to be fair, spring is by far the season most pre-disposed to blocking, so if we are going to get a break, it's probably going to be relatively soon.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

As I've discussed before, I feel like we'll get more and more years where these general patterns don't hold up. It feels like we've already crossed a certain tipping point with a notably long streak of above average CETs, at some point we should see a long spell of dry and very above average. It just feels like the logical outcome given how the rest of the world is going. 
 

It certainly does feel like we've entered the realm of a dominant bias for above average, but it's overshadowed by the persistently high precipitation.

Edited January 31 by raz.org.rain

[Metwatch]

 Summer8906

The flooding next month was devastating round here, also following a strong Nino like the last few months!

Edited January 31 by Metwatch

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain

4 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

As I've discussed before, I feel like we'll get more and more years where these general patterns don't hold up. It feels like we've already crossed a certain tipping point with a notably long streak of above average CETs, at some point we should see a long spell of dry and very above average. It just feels like the logical outcome given how the rest of the world is going. 

Mind you the patterns that gave the dangerous heat to the Mediterranean are the same patterns that gave us the cyclonic conditions last July. Europe was inundated with SW-lies which gave extremely hot Saharan air to the Mediterranean but dull damp Atlantic air to NW Europe.  It does seem to be the Mediterranean latitudes that are seeing the bulk of their warming in the summer (while winters remain relatively cold) while more northerly maritime climates seem to concentrate the really silly warmth in autumn, winter and spring.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Metwatch Yes, 1998 wasn't a great year weatherwise. Four goodish months in Feb, May, Aug and Nov (so three month intervals) with a lot of dull damp Atlantic-dominated weather for the other 8 months.

A good year to flip round! (see the "anti-2023" thread).

Back to now, looks like it'll be pitch-black in 15 minutes. Winter solstice, here we come (again)!

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[marky810]

Northern England getting hammered again by a band of heavy rain. It's beyond a joke now. Just not funny anymore.

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 a major contributor to that is the sea surface temperature if I remember right. It was unusually high last summer and contributed to the high rainfall, and also helps to keep the jet stream locked to the south. 
 

Past trends seem to suggest that cooler SSTs promote features like double jets that gives us the perfect conditions for atmospheric blocking and notably hot summers. As things stand, the SSTs around the British Isles are seemingly very low and I think the Atlantic AO is due to enter a negative (colder) phase? The Atlantic factor is a demonstration of why an ocean circulation collapse wouldn't cause widespread cooling too, as a colder North Atlantic results in hot and dry summers across all of Europe. 2018 demonstrated that nicely. The so called "cold blob" seems to have made a reappearance in temperature anomaly charts, so who knows? Right now, the right ingredients for a hot dry summer are there... but the same was said for a cold and snowy winter (but let's face it, the warmth will almost always win out against the cold).

[cheese]

 marky810 the heavy stuff isn't crossing the Pennines though, so I think we'll be fine.

Today is actually a pretty good example of the Pennine rain shadow in action:

Edited January 31 by cheese

[markyo]

 cheese Just crossed the Pennies west to east....i can confirm the rain shadow!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 jtay this country has such a beautiful climate wowww