Moans, ramps and banter

[markyo]

 Freeze please read what i put again, i wasn't sure. That is clear but that is one month!!!! Doesn't that fully prove my point!???

[Bristawl Si]

 Freeze March 2013 was our coldest month of the 12/13 'Winter' (even though meteorologically it wasnt/isnt a Winter month).

However, frustratingly IMBY, it was basically bone dry esp when the really cold weather set in during that month. Almost everywhere else saw some epic snowfalls.

[Freeze]

 markyo tbh I agree there hasn't been barely any wintry months since 2010, I was just commenting on it but I could be wrong of course.

[ANYWEATHER]

The desperation on the mod thread ,showing ten day away  snow charts. Those charts rarely come right 24 hrs away let alone 10 days....

[Chesil View]

 Freeze

Jan and March 2013?

feb early March 2018?

[raz.org.rain]

 ANYWEATHER if we get into May without seeing any cold snaps or snow, it's fair to say this winter has been the biggest flop in a long while.

[ANYWEATHER]

 raz.org.rain probably get a really cold Spring, often the case when we get a sketchy winter like this.....

[raz.org.rain]

"Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts", we're only a few weeks away from spring...

[SollyOlly]

 raz.org.rain Hope so! The seasons seem to be totally out of kilter, so if we're getting ridiculous mild in winter, who knows what the impact might be on the other months. 'Climate change' doesn't just mean 'global warming' in a uniform way...it's likely to be much more nuanced than that. Predictability and the 'old' teleconnections seems to be the first casualty. So for those who love 'mild' in winter, there could just as easily be a knock-on in other seasons which are less agreeable, depending on preference. 

[raz.org.rain]

 SollyOlly general rule of thumb is that there's an overall bias for above average, I find. And then we get the freak events such as SSWs.

[WYorksWeather]

36 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

"Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts", we're only a few weeks away from spring...

And not a popular drum for me to be banging on the model thread, but the ensembles are very sceptical. It just shows how low expectations have got when days of 7C by day and 3C by night are thought of as cold 

In terms of time ticking away, think probably two or three more weeks of model watching before I'll be hunting for the first 20C max of the year (who knows, maybe in February at this rate!). I'm really not interested in cold beyond mid-March as it virtually never delivers anything that stays on the ground more than 24 hours. Usually slush that turns back to rain at my location, at best.

[Metwatch]

30 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

general rule of thumb is that there's an overall bias for above average, I find. And then we get the freak events such as SSWs.

All months are warming but the ones that have warmed the slowest in terms of the CET are March and December.

December is mainly due to 2 freak cold ones which are 1981 and 2010. Then for March it might be due to the late season SSW's, which could be getting more common but i'm not as sure on that. Quite a few chilly Marches last few decades, but mainly in the 80s and 2013. 2018 with that very cold start and middle as well. There are a few more in there i'm sure.

 

Edited January 30 by Metwatch

[Daniel*]

11 hours ago, SunnyG said:

Looking forward to the day when people will stop wishing for snow 4 weeks to go more or less, so not too far away, phew!

Us hardcore snow enthusiasts will take it any time of the year!….

[SunnyG]

 Daniel* I like your spirit

[Wingman Blue]

 ANYWEATHER Don’t fret, as I posted earlier, the jetstream forecast shows a cold spell from 10th Feb, has done for four days now.

currently -1C in West Devon. Forecast this evening was +2C at this time.  After five years at looking at ‘the models’, I now believe they are no more accurate than some of those Covid models.

one input error early on quickly shows up as a completely false prediction.   I go with the Jetstream as that has less room for error ( not that it’s never wrong it often is!)

Edited January 30 by Wingman Blue
Spelling

[cheese]

35 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

All months are warming but the ones that have warmed the slowest in terms of the CET are March and December.

December is mainly due to 2 freak cold ones which are 1981 and 2010. Then for March it might be due to the late season SSW's, which could be getting more common but i'm not as sure on that. Quite a few chilly Marches last few decades, but mainly in the 80s and 2013. 2018 with that very cold start and middle as well. There are a few more in there i'm sure.

On the other hand, I find that 20C+ days in March are becoming more common. There was obviously March 2012 which was exceptionally warm, but here we also saw 20C+ temps in March 2021 and March 2022. Before March 2012 I don't think I had ever even experienced a 20C+ day in March.

[East Lancs Rain]

5 hours ago, markyo said:

Sorry but your just quoting months with a negative cet figure, as far as i can see none are more negative than 2.5 if that, December 2010 was far more, a proper winters month, the last one. look at the summer cet figures for the last decade and a half, totally different. 

Not really. The only summer months that have come out more than 2.5C above average is July 2018 with a CET of 19.0C and June 2023 with a CET of 17.0C, both around 3C above average. I agree we have had a lot of warm summer months in recent years though. 

11 hours ago, cheese said:

Parts of Norway are much worse in the winter imo - I'm thinking the SW coast, around Bergen etc. They mostly just get lots and lots of cold rain. 

Just looked up the forecast for Bergen. Rain or showers forecast every day, one 10C day but raining heavily all day, the rest all in mid single digits, with some days forecast to have sleet at times. Pretty much the worst climate you can get in winter, becuase if it was just a bit colder all that cold rain and sleet would be snow… So even though it would still be cold and overcast, at least the snow would look pretty and brighten things up a bit. A climate with winter highs of 4-7°C and lots of cold rain is the worst you can get in winter really - not quite cold enough for regular snow but nowhere near mild enough to feel remotely warm.

10 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Another sunny day with clear blue skies here. Very fair weather too, no nasty breezes, somewhat cooler but still mild. Really feeling like early spring. Hoping this continues until spring proper arrives and then we can get some proper warmth in preparation for a nice long and hot summer.

What do you mean another sunny day….? Did you not get any rain yesterday? 

16 hours ago, cheese said:

because most of the population lives in much drier areas.

That makes sense to be honest… Most people don’t like rain.. And mountainess/hilly areas are more challenging to build on. But why oh why did people have to colonise such wet and gloomy places like Lancashire, The Shetland Islands, The Outer Hebrides, The west of Scotland, West and South Wales etc? We should have just used those places for farmland. 

[Atmogenic]

Well this dry weather here has been crap, the past 3 days has been nothing but overcast skies

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 East Lancs Rain

10 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

But why oh why did people have to colonise such wet and gloomy places like Lancashire, The Shetland Islands, The Outer Hebrides, The west of Scotland, West and South Wales etc?

I can't attest to this from a historical source perspective, but my hunch is that it's most likely because they were unpopulated spaces, with little challenge from invaders, and far less risk of encroachment neighbouring tribes / cultures etc. For certain risk-taking / pioneering cultures, that was precisely the draw...

It's not a coincidence why some of the more favourable areas of our country for climate and farming (the South-East) always had the most contest and it's where new invaders tended to want to settle. Danes, Jutes, Saxons, Celts, as well as the Romans and Normans, all favoured East Anglia (at least initially). You can apply this at large as well - there are key areas in the world that have always been cultural 'pinch-points' and have constantly been settled, conquered, and changed hands. Such areas are unequivocally always pleasant, fertile and climatically benign. The Nile Delta for example, the Indus River region, or the Lower Rhine region in central Europe etc. These regions were very popular with pre-industrial cultures throughout history. However, settling your tribe / community / culture in such regions meant high risks alongside the easily reapable rewards - because other cultures/tribes also want to live there, and are prepared to work hard to take it from you, by force. On the flipside, not many people are too fussed about tying to live in a wet, windy, cloudy, cool bogland like North-West Scotland, or a hard, barren tundra like mainland Norway. So, if you / your community masters that environment and learns how to survive/thrive there against the odds, you're pretty much all set. The Picts in Scotland could not be conquered even by the Romans for instance, because the Romans just simply could not be bothered with the landscape, climate and the hardy people who lived in such a hard place. Indeed, they were only conquered when other equally as hardy people from an equally hard place arrived (Scandinavia) lol. 

Obviously this is a slight tangent, but I think it's super interesting to consider how weather / climate has affected human decisions and behaviour throughout history, and how it's also shaped different cultures and their unique tendencies / strengths and weaknesses. You can't divorce these two things, really! 

Edited January 31 by In Absence of True Seasons

[CharlieBear9]

 In Absence of True Seasons I think the majority of invaders throughout our history settling on the Eastern side is mainly due to that being the area in which they initially disembarked, due to the direction they had travelled. It seems unlikely that they'd possess any pre-emptive knowledge of the climate further West.

Edited January 31 by CharlieBear9

[*Stormforce~beka*]

stained glass window orf cloud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jtay]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

stained glass window orf cloud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 jtay Just awful!!!

[cheeky_monkey]

basked in wall to wall sunshine yesterday and +13c today another sunny day not as warm though at +7c ..this the kind of weather i would expect in Mid April not January 

[raz.org.rain]

12 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

What do you mean another sunny day….? Did you not get any rain yesterday? 

It was sunny yesterday, drizzle and overcast the day before, and sunny the day before that. Something along those lines anyway.