Moans, ramps and banter

[raz.org.rain]

Fingers crossed there's no nasty surprise at the end of winter that dumps an Arctic plunge when we want spring to arrive.

[January Snowstorm]

It's back to the drawing board after this Winter. Its been obvious last few years that lrfs are really just a waste of time. The Met were really caught out this year, always so conservative they seemed to almost break rank this year when going for cold. You can argue we were unlucky and perhaps we were but in the end of the day we had the 2nd warmest Christmas eve on record, a snowless Dec and Jan with early Feb also for the scrap heap.

I much respect those who post about the Strat and background signals. But maybe it's time to admit it's use is very much limited as a forecasting tool. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised that it's this made the Met Office inaccurately call a cold Jan and Feb.

Folks it's only the weather but for kids it's so disappointing that they may grow up seeing little or any snow. At least we all saw our fair share as we grew up..

[raz.org.rain]

  @January Snowstorm I'm just hoping that this bias for abnormal warmth continues throughout the year, rather than us ending up with winter synoptics in high summer yet again.

[WYorksWeather]

45 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's back to the drawing board after this Winter. Its been obvious last few years that lrfs are really just a waste of time. The Met were really caught out this year, always so conservative they seemed to almost break rank this year when going for cold. You can argue we were unlucky and perhaps we were but in the end of the day we had the 2nd warmest Christmas eve on record, a snowless Dec and Jan with early Feb also for the scrap heap.

I much respect those who post about the Strat and background signals. But maybe it's time to admit it's use is very much limited as a forecasting tool. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised that it's this made the Met Office inaccurately call a cold Jan and Feb.

My view on that is that the whole thing is probabilistic. The larger scale patterns may be more favourable than usual. But let's suppose the normal chance of a very significant cold and snowy spell that brings widespread snow in winter is something like once a decade now. If we have the perfect background signals, analogues etc., you might argue we have say triple that chance, or 30%. But that's still not very good odds, and still means it's more likely to be a bust.

So I don't think the teleconnections are particularly limited or flawed in any way really. It's just that all they do is increase the chance, and don't guarantee anything.

[SunnyG]

  @raz.org.rain Let's not jinx it

Jokes aside, we usually get one decent summer and a cr*ppy one. This should be the decent one

[SunnyG]

What really annoys me of the Met website is how over-dramatic they are. For today they have "blustery"weather in London, while the BBC simply describes is as breezy. When your language is over-the-top, I know you aren't to be trusted.... (not that the BBC app is much better).

 

Edited January 28 by SunnyG

[StingJet]

Probably the worst 24/36hr spell coming up of the "winter" thus far, for me from tonight and through Monday, Heavy Rain ,  gusty F6 and a "feels like" temp barely above Oc


 

[Summer8906]

Is it me or has this weekend turned out colder than expected?

Yesterday felt distinctly chilly, colder than any day in the past week except Friday. Air very dry too, felt like somewhat continental air was getting in. Not sure what the temp was, but I'd have guessed about average, around 7-8C.

This morning first thing also felt chilly but more damp, presumably due to the wind veering and the airmass becoming rather more maritime in origin.

Both days brighter than the cloudy forecast I saw yesterday.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

  @raz.org.rain Too ruddy right!!!

[East Lancs Rain]

BBC Weather app currently says, 10°C, sunny.

 

The reality…

 

Oh well, at least it is dry and feels fairly mild at around 8°C as the winds are fairly light.

[marky810]

Mmm, not quite the day forecast for here only a few hours ago. Currently overcast and 8.7c which makes it cooler than this time yesterday. All in all not a bad day though at least it’s not lashing it down or gusting to 50mph. 

[AWD]

  @Summer8906 I did wonder that myself.  Although 2m air temperatures over the last couple of days have been milder than average for sure ( 9.2c Friday, 12.4c Saturday & so far 11.6c today), it just hasn’t felt particularly comfortable personally, with a nagging chill still.  Thought it was just me so kept quiet about it.  Today, with the sun out, has actually been quiet pleasant but yesterday, predominantly cloudy for the day, was definitely fresh.

Got to remember though it is late January still & even mild temperatures this time of year (low teens) are still relatively cool feeling, as they would be considered at any other time of the year.  Probably me expecting too much too soon.

I note the Met Office forecast for the coming week is more cloud, cloud, dull, dull days with sunshine at a premium again.  Some drizzly rain around midweek time too.

[raz.org.rain]

19°c recorded in northern Scotland, new January record.

[SollyOlly]

  @raz.org.rain Really quite extraordinary. Awful!

[Alderc 2.0]

19.6C in Scotland is extraordinary and 5C higher than I’ve ever seen in Bournemouth in January. Must be a huge foehn effect with strong winds funnelling through the western glens. Temps unremarkable everywhere else really only Altnaharra very very mild. 
 

Edited January 28 by Alderc 2.0

[SollyOlly]

Yep, Foehn at play. Utterly remarkable though, and of course a very interesting phenomenon. 

Somebody else posted that it hasn't felt as mild this weekend as the 2m temperatures suggested, an IMBY I can concur with that, and I'm 'sensitive' to warmth! 

[baddie]

With 73 hours of sunshine, it is already the 3rd sunniest January ever in my area. 3 very sunny Januarys in a row is just incredible

[WYorksWeather]

37 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

Yep, Foehn at play. Utterly remarkable though, and of course a very interesting phenomenon. 

Somebody else posted that it hasn't felt as mild this weekend as the 2m temperatures suggested, an IMBY I can concur with that, and I'm 'sensitive' to warmth! 

Tend to agree it's not been overly mild-feeling here. To be fair a lot seems to be location-dependent - it'd feel very spring-like if the sun was out, but it's been a very autumnal-feeling day here, a bit breezy at times and temperatures knocked back to only about 10C rather than the forecast 12-13C.

[markyo]

20 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

to be fair, you can imagine why warm weather fans were going so crazy back in July and August

Not really as it came off the hottest June ever recorded in the UK. One actual Winter a decade would be good, we aren't even getting that. Honestly can't see what warm weather fans can moan at, Scotland's all-time  record of this month has just gone, below average monthly temps are as extinct as a dodo now. Yet they still complain.

[Metwatch]

31 minutes ago, markyo said:

Honestly can't see what warm weather fans can moan at, Scotland's all-time  record of this month has just gone, below average monthly temps are as extinct as a dodo now. Yet they still complain.

Because of the low sunshine amounts and too much rain. Last year was just too wet... Warmth in April - October becomes less remembered if a lot of the time it's raining, cloudy and the nights are what are the most anomalous.

Last year was the 7th wettest year in the England Wales region since at least 1766. Notice a lot of years in the 21st century popping up in the top 20. More warmth = more available moisture.

Edited January 28 by Metwatch

[I remember Atlantic 252]

to me, always feels colder when it's dry especially with light winds, those wet and windy days feel almost balmy

[SollyOlly]

  @markyo totally agree mate, well said. 

[SLEETY]

Always warm records that go, how utterly depressing, given up in ever seeing prolonged cold in January again. 

Even the cold spell early in January has failed to give January a below average CET. 

I'm still in denial that I saw falling and lying snow here, even on the beach, and it stayed on the ground for 2 days,early in January. 

Wait  until winter ends and once again the perfect winter charts will appear on and off with robust Greenland  highs that don't just give away like a pansy to low pressure,exsctly how the cold-spell ended. 

Sick of seeing decent winter weather patters outside of winter

 

Edited January 28 by SLEETY

[cj114]

I probably won't be popular, but the lack of any upcoming cold is good news as far as I can see.

My monthly fuel bill for this month was £240. Ridiculous I know, esp as I have a good normally economical heating system.

Either you don't feel the Cold (which I do, due to m.s) or you are weathy enough to pay these extreme bills.

Rant over. Xx

[reef]

  @baddie Sunny Januarys have been a thing in recent years. Here, the top two are 2022 and 2023 and the other three in the top 5 are 2015, 2012 and 2020. All within the last 10 years.

Top 5 sunniest Januarys:

2022: 104hrs
2023: 103hrs
2015: 91hrs
2012: 89hrs
2020: 85hrs

The 1991-2020 average here is 61 hours but the last decade has averaged 76 hours.

February is similar, the last decade has averaged 100 hours compared to 86 hours for 1991-2020. Winters are definitely getting sunnier. We could end up in the bizarre situation soon where November is duller than both, as that has averaged 68 hours in the last decade.