Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

 stainesbloke not what I would have expected tbh but obviously true. Think I expected Central Europe to be mild but sunny atm as that's what normally happens when we get cyclonic SWlies here.

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Maybe but despite more 30C days there seems to be still a lot of sub-20 days during July and August in this area (less so in Eastern England), probably more than were typical in the 90s or early 00s. Basically when Atlantic weather gets in during the summer (most of the time) it gets stuck in this warm nights, cool days, dull and damp pattern. I'm sure in the past we used to get more in the way of pleasant Atlantic conditions in the summer with an Azores high. If I have to put my finger on the difference, it's more in the way of SWlies and less in the way of NWlies in the summer, and the onshore winds bring in cool, dull, humid air off the sea with frequent light showers and low cloud, at least in this part of the country. In summers with winds north of west, the air has a longer land track and is from further north hence drier.

I suppose the question is, which is better?

A July with 20 days of 19-20C max, 5 days of 22-25C max and 6 days of 28-32C max (perhaps the typical contemporary July or August), or:

A July with just 5 days of 19-20C max, 20 days of 22-25C max, and 6 days of 26-28C max, with 30 not achieved at all?

I'd definitely prefer the latter.

As I've said before I do get the impression that the south coast is doing particularly badly these days, perhaps due to increased onshore WSWlies and decreased offshore WNWlies in the summer.

Agree about Dec and Feb in particular. Jan does, to be fair, seem to be improving, in the past few years we've had very few Januaries which are wet and stormy all month (2020 was more or less, but that's the only case). Dec is almost invariably mild, wet and dull (aside from first half of 2022) whereas Feb is invariably mild (and mostly dull and damp, except 2019 and 2023).

So much for Feb being the least "Atlantic" of the winter months, which is what the weather textbooks always used to say and was in fact the case in the 80s (only 1980 and 1989 were Atlantic-dominated). "As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger" etc. More like "As the days grow longer, the Atlantic grows stronger"...

Edited February 14 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

This is probably the most Autumnal February I have experienced. It would be a crying shame if this pathetic excuse for a month ended up beating the amazing Feb 2019's record average max temp. Although I can understand Winter fans didn't enjoy it, Feb 2019 for me, was an amazing month with tonnes of sunshine. Complete contrast to this dark, dull, windy, wet pile of cack which may end up taking the record lmfao.

As I have said many times, temperature is irrelevant to me, just give me sunshine! 1 degrees & sunny is far superior to 13 degrees, wet & overcast!

[Premiere Neige]

 Tom Quintavalle I wonder if Nathan Rao is a real person being paid an actual salary?   If he is, he has the cushiest job ever writing works of meteorological fiction for this so call newspaper. He's been recycling the same rubbish for years. Give it 3 months and he'll be writing about how "Brits are set to bake!" Don't forget to change from Celsius to Fahrenheit when you start to write about hot weather Nathan. Looks more sensational.....as you know!!

[Downburst]

 East Lancs Rain Good point. Cork airport though is a little different to Cork city as its 500 ft above sea level. But I am from the east coast and even in that short distance there is a noticeable difference in climate. There is a guy on here from Cork chasing snow, I have no idea why he bothers. I have been in Cork in the winter and spring and it really feels noticeably humid and when the sun comes out in late Spring or Summer it can even feel tropical, if that doesn't sound far fetched.

Fact is precipitation total has increased 7% and is growing over the last two climate periods, with temps also increasing. No getting away from it.

 

[danm]

Pretty dire out there this morning, soggy and cloudy.

 

Some Spring-like weather coming for this area tomorrow though - 16c with sunny spells. 

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Frigid Interesting! For me personally, Southern English summers are just too unreliable and capricious to be something desired.

You know what you're going to get with a Finnish winter...you do not know what you're going to get with a Southern English summer - it could be similar to Barcelona one year (like 2018 or 2022) or similar to Bergen another year (such as 2021 or 2023). 

For me, the ideal lies somewhere between both these options. Probably somewhere in continental Europe like Austria or Slovenia - not quite as arctic as Finland in winter but nevertheless still decent cold conditions and snowfall, alongside reliably sunny and warm summers.

It's honestly not really the hot temps I care about, it's having a semi-decent level of sunshine hours throughout the year. Which we unequivocally do not get in modern Britain lol.

[Downburst]

Lowest temp I can see for me in the next 10 days is 4 degrees at the very end of the run at 06:00 am. Yet we can't discuss this on the mad thread. Has to be teleconnections and snow for the next month or so before that thread returns to discuss the long range weather based on the models with no bias. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunSean Awful month thus far. Usually by mid-Feb my energy levels are ramping up a little as there's a small increase in daylight hours and generally it's a sunnier month than Jan and Dec. But my body and brain feels like it's in the middle of December. We had that sunny, clear day on Monday (I think) but outside of that, it's been a seriously grim spell. 

I'm not exaggerating when I say we need a sunnier and drier than average March, April and May to compensate for the last...checks notes...5 months solid of wetter and duller than average weather. Not just for our personal wellbeing, but for our flora and fauna. 

[danm]

 In Absence of True Seasons Funnily enough, January was sunnier than average almost UK wide, which isn't saying a lot due to the low bar, but against what we'd expect there was more sunshine:

It was also about average for rainfall for most:

 

December was quite a bit wetter and duller than average though. 

[MP-R]

 SunSean Talking my language! Sunshine is paramount. I think for any true weather enthusiast, February 2019 was interesting. Granted, I am in a part of the country that had a major snowfall early on, thunder during the brief Atlantic spell shortly after, then of course we all know how the rest of the month went!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 danm interesting, thanks. Yes that makes thinking about it given the decently long cold and sunny/clear spell we had in Jan. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

If the models are correct the 2nd half of February is shaping up to be grim!...cloud and lots of rain, no surprise there - we can add that to the grim months of July, most of October and December of recent times. Shocking Winter.

[lassie23]

 Froze were the Days Has the cold end to February been binned then?

[Froze were the Days]

 lassie23 I'm sure there are many in the MAD thread who will not give up on the Winter and as we have an extra day in the month will see it as a 'bonus' 

Lets be honest not only has the Winter been fairly shocking certainly in terms of 'signals' (if you believe in any of them or there worth now days but equally bad forecasts from seasonals and some of the more experienced 'pro' posters on here, as I've always said can they forecast ahead any better than you or me?...if so they wouldn't be on this website but making a living from it.

[lassie23]

 Froze were the Days they would have subscription websites, but even those that do charge people for wrong long-range forecasts lol

[kold weather]

 danm that two week spell in the middle of January was indeed pretty sunny and very dry, it made a nice change.

Everything outside of that though has been this monotonous wetter/duller/milder mush with literally the odd nicer day occasionally thrown in.

As for the winter forecasts, the moment I saw el nino go strong as it did I thought we might struggle. 

[johncam]

The mid Jan spell for gave us 3 sunny days. Really needing a break from the constant cloudy conditions  

Edited February 14 by johncam

[East Lancs Rain]

Currently 11.4°C with 92% humidity with light to moderate rain here, yet another typical day in this mild, dull and wet winter. February has been pretty awful so far but I don’t it’s been quite as bad as February 2020 which was an absolute washout.. Yet anyway…

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons I count the bad weather as starting last March. It's not just the wet for me it's all the thick cloud!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Froze were the Days You mean March, April, May, July, etc etc

 johncam Hugs darling. Big big hugs

[Froze were the Days]

30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

As for the winter forecasts, the moment I saw el nino go strong as it did I thought we might struggle.

When did it go strong?...I asked about if El Nino had developed back in December and replied back that it hadn't developed no where near as much as expected and was weak to neutral, not that I put that much trust in such things.

[kold weather]

 Froze were the Days the peak was 2.0, well within strong category. Technically its still a moderate event but there should be enough trimonthly readings to be offically strong.

[sundog]

13c here , dull and damp.  The absolute pits.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 *Stormforce~beka* Yeah last March was effectively the start of this pattern.

We have had reprieves like June, part of Sept, etc but they've been few and far between when you look at the 12 months as a whole. 

The issue is the lack of variety. It'll be 1 sunny or partly sunny day then 6/7 days of cloud and/or rain, and then repeat. Typically our weather is much more interspersed, aka a sunny day, the a rainy, then a mix of rain and wind with some sun, then a sunny day, etc.

 

Edited February 14 by In Absence of True Seasons