Moans, ramps and banter

[baddie]

 Sun Chaser As for the Easterlies, Im hoping the "cloudy" forecasts are wrong. Sometimes an Easterly forecast has a tendency to flip from overcast to wall-to-wall sunshine, particularly if it is mild rather than cold as Easterlies often are

Edited March 2 by baddie

[markyo]

Starting to get that bad feeling.  Doing the miles i do a week i see a lot of the country, never seen the land so saturated, ever. We need a dry spell, 3 to 4 weeks, let the ground drain. Nothing on offer though. This could become a big issue for farmers very soon, i've seen the activity already in attempts to drain fields. This is not just one location, it has effected the main arable production areas worst.

Edited March 2 by markyo

[baddie]

You know what would suck, If we end up with yet another month was less than 75% of average sunshine. We had it in March last year, July, December, February. Also SW ares in August and NE areas in October

Just excruciating and I would be surprised if we even get average sunshine this March (118 hours in my area)

 markyo Exactly. I would love a March version of January 2024 right now. Even that would mean a mild, dry and bright weekend (around the 23rd-25th) resembling 26th-28th January

Edited March 2 by baddie

[raz.org.rain]

 markyo oddly enough I've seen some wx accounts on Twitter calling a wet summer due to the ENSO flip. I'm not convinced though, there's a higher potential for a drier year.

[stainesbloke]

 East Lancs Rain West London. Though lots of flood warnings in Czechia, too. 
Would be nice get a more ‘normal’ weather pattern with fine weather interspersed with the odd unsettled day or two

[baddie]

 stainesbloke Im thinking a repeat of Storm Babet would be more likely than a 2 day dry spell . Wonder what kind of flooding that would lead to (Even worse, the 60mm rain day on my birthday, March 25th)

Edited March 2 by baddie

[ANYWEATHER]

February's Warmth leads to cooler March temperatures.....the forecast was put up by Ian Simpson, who used to work for that not lovable organisation called the Met office or perhaps he still does!  Firstly the terminology is incorrect. It has not been warm in February ,yes above average temperatures but not bikini weather! Secondly,  it's not cool now we are into March ,it's actually cold ,and yes a number of places have seen snow. But ,I can understand  terminology like this from anyone who has to do with the met office , sadly the days of great weather forecasters are long gone ,and that includes the BBC crew etc. Bring back Rob McElwee !☺

[stainesbloke]

'We're really struggling': British farmers pushed to brink by 'shocking' levels of floods

APPLE.NEWS

---

By James Gray, ITV News Multimedia Producer

Getting rather serious

 baddie Meteorologically, that’d be very interesting. In reality, a complete nightmare! Hopefully won’t happen

[Cheshire Freeze]

 stainesbloke A wet summer would though pretty much ensure a drier and colder? next winter. It would be unprecedented otherwise.

[stainesbloke]

 Cheshire Freeze Perhaps? Though winter is when precipitation is more useful for ground water stocks, etc. We’ve just had a lot of wet months in the last 12, so a drier period is desperately needed

[al78]

 Cheshire Freeze No. The weather and climate does not try to balance out, it responds to forcings. If those forcings point towards pushing the jet stream over the UK, the UK continues to get unsettled weather. I don't think there is any correlation between summer and winter precipitation, although if the next 12 months were wetter than average it will likely be horrendous for flooding and agriculture.

[Methuselah]

 al78 Indeed, and we don't know what many of those forcings are. So, how anyone pretends to be able to forecast our weather, for six months' time, is beyond me. @Tamara's posts are about diagnostics and not A+B=C predictions. . . 

[raz.org.rain]

I wonder where the cold is supposed to be coming from?

[Don]

 raz.org.rain Your freezer!!  

[WYorksWeather]

 Arch Stanton Just doing a bit of maths on this. The total atmospheric methane concentration is 1.9 parts per million at the moment. The entire atmosphere weighs 5.5 quadrillion tonnes - so the atmospheric methane weighs something like 10 billion tonnes. The annual increase in atmospheric methane is about 0.01 ppm, which would be something like 50 million tonnes.

So the Nord Stream leak, even at the upper bound of 150,000 tonnes, is less than 1% of the annual increase. It's clearly not a major factor - the maths doesn't really work.

[SunSean]

Another sunless day in Essex. Colour me shocked.

The long wait since 2015 for a sunny start to March continues. Maybe 2025 yeah?

[baddie]

 SunSean The first week of March is always dull and often cold, whether its dry or wet. Shocking that even the sunny March of 2022 had zero sunshine in the first 6 days. I wonder if we will have a big respite after the equinox like 2020 and 2022 did (Also they came after mild and wet winters like this one), making this March one of the sunniest on record 

Edited March 3 by baddie

[SunSean]

 baddie Yeah it's such a baffling anomaly as we've had many sunny periods in all 3 thirds of February & even the last 2 thirds of January but the first third of March? Doesn't happen! So strange & annoying.

[AWD]

10 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

 

I wonder where the cold is supposed to be coming from?

 

I don’t know but considering I still have remnants of yesterdays snowfall on the ground here, cold must have found its way to me from somewhere, (SW England)!

Getting a spring like March down these parts seems to be a right slog in recent years.

[baddie]

 SunSean At the moment, Im starting to see shades of March 2021. Dry and dull start, Unsettled middle and Warm and Sunny after the equinox (Not quite because the wet first 2 days). If thats the case, I look forward to an April 2021 redux (CET would be lower than February)

Edited March 3 by baddie

[East Lancs Rain]

5 hours ago, SunSean said:

Another sunless day in Essex. Colour me shocked.

The long wait since 2015 for a sunny start to March continues.

March 2021 had a nice start here: 

 

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Yeah it's such a baffling anomaly as we've had many sunny periods in all 3 thirds of February & even the last 2 thirds of January but the first third of March? Doesn't happen! So strange & annoying.

But yes the weather does have those strange anomalies. Like how Easter is often cold and the first week of September is often warm, dry and sunny.

[CryoraptorA303]

 baddie April 2021 was the third coldest on record which likely translates to coldest or very close in the pre-1990 climate, so a repeat of that isn't expected for a very long time, probably 50 years or more.

It's literally the third day of March, anything can happen yet. March has historically had very little bearing on the year ahead, owing to how naturally turbulent it is. It's easy to believe that every month from now will be dull, wet or cold, but things will get better.

[reef]

 SunSean In my own figures on the most recent 30 years (1994-2023), the first 5 days of March are actually colder than any point in February. Its a rather odd anomaly.

[baddie]

Met Office forecast for 18th March - 1st April

"During the second half of March, pressure is likely to remain higher than average to the north or northwest of the UK, which would push the focus of unsettled weather further south than usual (especially early in this period), although there are signs that changeable weather patterns may return more widely later in the month. The greatest build-up of rain is therefore most likely to be in the south, with northern areas rather drier compared with normal. Temperatures will probably be near average overall, with some colder interludes most likely in the north and east."

If this results in NW winds that just bring in cold and cloudy conditions then that can F off. I am craving Easterlies that bring in wall-to-wall sunshine and 15c temperatures, though we are still getting Easterlies anyways in a few days, but not really sunny ones

Edited March 3 by baddie

[baddie]

 CryoraptorA303 It was only near "record breaking" by minimum temperatures. Daytime temperatures were still warmer than 2012, 2013 and 2016

Edited March 3 by baddie