Moans, ramps and banter

[Arctic Hare]

Certain people elsewhere getting excited over the possibility of an easterly. They're welcome to it and I won't criticise anyone for their weather preferences. But although E'lies are usually fairly *dry* this far west, and tbf that's the important thing, I really am not going to get excited about them in March! Ready for spring now, not winter-after-winter, thanks!

[raz.org.rain]

 Arctic Hare if I understand correctly, easterlies can be warm depending on which way they come.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain At this time of year it becomes a question of the exact wind direction and air source. At this time of year I would say as a rough guide, relative to recent climatology:

Colder: long-fetch easterly from Ukraine / Russia, any north-easterly

Average: straight easterly from central Europe

Warmer: south-easterly from far SE Europe, e.g. Italy, Greece

 

[baddie]

Imagine if we get a March 2012 style warm spell after the equinox, as it could possibly happen. March so far is looking similar to the first half of March 2012, with anticyclonic gloom. The high pressure was based over Scotland too during the warm spell (as well as the Met Office 30 day forecast for March), so I hope this does lead to that kind of month

[al78]

 baddieI remember March 2012 being a month of large contrasts between the start and end of the month. The first weekend I was playing bridge and it was sleeting outside. After the equinox I was sitting outside in warm sunshine in short sleeves during my afternoon tea break.

[raz.org.rain]

 baddie as long as we don't get a 2012 style summer I'd be up for it. Although, I do believe we could have a pleasantly warm spring followed on by a legendary dry and hot summer this year.

[johncam]

Up in Inverness,  two lovely sunny days 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 johncam Greedy bugger. As per 2023 I'm only allowed 1 ...

[johncam]

 *Stormforce~beka* If i had stayed at home i would have had only the 1 ,been a real bloody cloudy crap winter , grrrrrrr

[Arctic Hare]

 raz.org.rain That's the concern. Yes, of course I know pattern matching is not a reliable method of prediction. But it would be yet another kick in the teeth to have a "summer" like 2012! I would frankly happily put up with a cold March to avoid that.

[raz.org.rain]

 Arctic Hare as far as I know, that late 2000s/early 2010s period of cold and unsettled summer was a very unusual occurrence. I think @CryoraptorA303might know more about it. Ironically it was connected to a more powerful AMOC at the time as a stronger North Atlantic current promotes cooler and wetter summers in Europe, hence why the 2010s completely flipped to settled dry and warm summers once the "cold blob" became more pronounced.

[CryoraptorA303]

 baddie Careful, you don't want March to be too warm. That almost always leads to a mild summer.

 Arctic Hare  raz.org.rain I think it was something to do with the AO, a similar disturbance occured in the 60s and we all saw the result of that. A summer like 2012 won't happen again for a very long time, if ever in the same form. June in particular was one of the abnormally coolest since the 70s, I think there's maybe only one or two others in the 80s that might have been comparable. A July like 2009 or 2023 is rare enough, about every 15 years or so. I can't really think of any ultra coolwet Augusts to be honest, does 2006 count? 2021 was mild and dull but very dry and I wouldn't say it was exactly cool like June 2012 or July 2023 were. None others come to mind. It must be something that isn't thermodynamically possible in August, for whatever reason that may be. August 2010 was wet and a bit dull but it wasn't on the scale of the mentioned Junes and Julys that saw widespread extreme rainfall and prolonged low temps. August 2017? Seems generally very rare to get an August like that anyhow.

I don't think we're going to see an excessively warm March (or spring in general) anyway, that seems to be a La Nina exclusive. That's not to say temperatures can't significantly rise later in the month, or that we won't get a May heatwave. Those are definitely on the table, if anything I'd bet on a May heatwave or at least a hot spell.

Edited March 7 by CryoraptorA303

[baddie]

 CryoraptorA303 March 2003, 2014 and 2022???? Werent they warm and sunny but lead to decent summers

[CryoraptorA303]

 baddie Yes but they weren't excessive. The really warm Marches like 2012 have a bad habit of leading to mild summers.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well ... Look at that... A completely blue sky now ... How very 2023 ...

[Methuselah]

 CryoraptorA303 I guess that, just like all the other 'warm month, cold month = blah' correlations, warm Marches presage precisely nothing as to how the following summer will turn out. . . 

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303  my current guess it we'll see an overall average to above average spring in terms of temperatures, I agree that May will see the warmest weather. I can see spring being dry which will lead on to a dry summer, with some very notable hot spells.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

roll on warmth now! can't be doing with freezing cold with absolutely no chance of snow

[stainesbloke]

Turned out quite nice in west London today with some sunshine but quite a chilly, raw wind spoilt it a bit

[Sun Chaser]

This time of year I'm usually very optimistic, even last year. But I can't seem to ignore how boring the weather has been essentially since mid October. The outlook is boring, cyclonic and pretty gross and anything dry just comes with heaps of cloud. I'm so far away from the spring mindset that usually takes hold this time of year.

I think on a personal level this winter has felt so cold and grey because it was my first living outside the south west. Here the late autumn/winter/early spring period is slightly colder so it has felt like a fairly cold and long winter by my standards. November was the coldest I've experienced since 2010 and January was the coldest I've experienced since 2011. March so far has been fairly cool. Missing the coastal mildness for sure!

[raz.org.rain]

It's looking more likely that we'll see a warm spell in the second half of the month, a plume pattern seems to be gaining momentum in the ensembles. It's also looking like the SSW could help to deliver this warm spell too.

[reef]

 raz.org.rain

The ensembles show nothing like that. They're just a few degrees either side of average right out until the end. In London, there are only five members that go above a 2M temp of 16C for the entire run and none show below freezing. Its about as boring an outlook as could be. Thats the GFS. The ECM actually shows a few colder members below -10C 850hPa after the 19th. None really trouble the +10C 850hPa isotherm on either.

[stainesbloke]

A lovely day here with mainly clear skies, that wind is a bit chilly though

[Racer]

Wife suggested cutting the grass today, first time since October, before it rains again tomorrow. First cut is always a bit of a battle, which I expected, but despite all the rain it was pretty dry. 
A couple of dry days, sun and a breeze has worked wonders.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cold finally loosens its grip today as it gets above freezing..this after 2 weeks of -20s and -30s and lots of snow.