Moans, ramps and banter

[raz.org.rain]

7 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Hopefully that ends the fears of a 2007 repeat or the like, nothing is currently pointing to that.

Good, already sick of hearing about 2007 and 1998 when we've already had an equivalent 12 months of that turd weather.

[TwisterGirl81]

 B87 so true, it didn’t warm up until mid May last year but what a beautiful 6 weeks it was. I also hope we don’t have to wait until then either for a long settle warm period, not especially after the past several months have been. It was showery this morning and wind was howling whilst I was at my allotment this morning but currently sunny but feels very cool, wind has finally died down.

I’m so desperately hoping we have a nice latter part of spring and a decent summer. I keep reading different things one way or the other. It’s times like these where I really starts to envy not living on a continent and having a continental climate where you know it’s going to be have guaranteed decent sunshine amounts, like 2000+ hours annually

[cheese]

From the BBC: 

The Met Office predicts that by 2070, winters in the UK will be up to 30% wetter than they were in 1990 and that rainfall will be up to 25% more intense.

Summers will actually get drier overall – with more heatwaves and droughts – but when rain does come it will be heavier, 20% more intense than it was in 1990.

Wetter winters always likely as I mentioned recently, but it looks like summers might actually get drier. You’d hope with wetter winters that our reservoirs would be full enough to prevent water shortages during hotter, drier summers. That might require our government(s) to properly invest in our ageing infrastructure though. 

I also personally wouldn’t mind wetter winters in exchange for warmer, sunnier and drier summers. That’s basically a Mediterranean climate.

Edited April 9 by cheese

[Scorcher]

 raz.org.rain Both years were miles better up to this point with a superb sunny February in 1998 and a very sunny March and record-breaking warm sunny April in 2007.

[Scorcher]

 cheese A growing population is a problem for the reservoirs, even with the extra rain.

I personally think it's irresponsible for the government to be encouraging further population growth on an already overcrowded island while not investing in new reservoirs and other infrastructure.

[ANYWEATHER]

15 minutes ago, cheese said:

The Met Office predicts that by 2070, winters in the UK will be up to 30% wetter than they were in 1990 and that rainfall will be up to 25% more intense.

Well there we are then,  everything they predict fails to materialise. ...

[Scorcher]

 B87 That sounds more like summer than spring. Spring is known for being cool in the shade, warm in the sun. If it's 15C, it's not really going to feel warm in the shade.

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese pretty much a Csb climate, which isn't far off what we have now. It's very similar to what we've seen over the past two years, and regions like northern Spain have a Csb climate. It is considered Mediterranean under the Köppen classification. The UK could easily achieve that climate so yes, the UK can turn Mediterranean (it's unlikely to turn into Andalusia or Greece though)

 

[cheese]

 Scorcher even if our population started declining we would still need significant investment in our infrastructure to make up for the last 50 years of under-investment.

[cheese]

 raz.org.rain it would be a warm-summer Mediterranean climate like Seattle or Portland, as opposed to the hot-summer Mediterranean climates like Athens or Seville. 

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, cheese said:

Wetter winters always likely as I mentioned recently, but it looks like summers might actually get drier. You’d hope with wetter winters that our reservoirs would be full enough to prevent water shortages during hotter, drier summers. 

Depends if it makes up for the change in overall evaporation rate year-round. Winters will also be getting a lot milder in that time so the small evaporation rate in those months will increase, especially if my prediction that overall rainfall days will decline and the rainfall itself will become much more intense, so the Sun will appear more often. Of course the vast majority of the change will be in the warm six months of the year, and in that time it's going to become significantly warmer. London and the home counties are already over 24°C average max in the latest 10 year period for July, by that measure it'll be more like 26°C by 2040-2050, possibly pushing 27°C and could be pushing 28°C by 2060-70 depending on the emissions scenario. These sort of temps would lead to much higher rates of evaporation than today and there is a decent chance of them overwhelming the increase in annual rainfall. Not to mention that spring will get significantly warmer in that time too and May 2070 could be more like the average July or August today, so spring is going to become a far more dangerous time for reservoirs when they previously didn't really experience high enough temps to be a significant threat without a dry year before them in the first place.

You also have to consider that not every winter will be wetter, there will be that one year where the autumn-winter period is a lot drier than average, in which case the nation will quickly drop into a water shortage the next summer, especially if it's warm, yet alone hot by the standards of that time. The averages are important considerations but so are the plausible extremes in making decisions with these sorts of things.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Scorcher Indeed, that along with the long term seasonals, and the Nina flip now being cancelled, would suggest that such an outcome is highly implausible. There is no indication for a cool, wet summer right now.

Edited April 9 by CryoraptorA303

[Scorcher]

 cheese Seattle isn't much warmer than London even now across the year. Only about 0.5C in it. Seattle has much sunnier summers and much wetter winters though.

[B87]

 cheese That is a Mediterranean climate. I assume the SE and the central south coast will be firmly Csb under that scenario. Some places are already borderline Csb now.

[B87]

 Scorcher Seattle does have sunnier summers, but all US locations have inflated sunshine hours on the order of 10-15% higher than neighbouring Canada, or even Europe. If Portsmouth or Shanklin measured sunshine the US way, they would have between 2100-2300 hours annually.

Yuma is not the sunniest place on Earth, the central and eastern part of the Sahara is.

Interestingly, although Seattle has slightly warmer summers than London, July 2006 and July 2018 were both warmer than any month ever recorded in Seattle.

Edited April 9 by B87

[Alderc 2.0]

 Scorcher not sure how the population is really growing given average children per couple is now only 1.6. Can only be net immigration. 

[CryoraptorA303]

12 minutes ago, B87 said:

Seattle does have sunnier summers, but all US locations have inflated sunshine hours on the order of 10-15% higher than neighbouring Canada, or even Europe. If Portsmouth or Shanklin measured sunshine the US way, they would have between 2100-2300 hours annually.

What's this about? I know the US is a bit silly with using rounded Fahrenheit (which we stopped doing from the late 60s), but do they measure sunshine differently?

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 They use a different threshold, in some cases it records sunshine with less than 100W/m2. 

Compare Seattle to Vanvouver, or the worst offender of the lot, Detroit and Windsor (effectively the same city with an international border running through it). Generally it's 10-12% higher when the US is recording.

According to Wiki, Boston MA averages 2634 sun hours per year using the US method, however they also have a Campbell-Stokes recorder there, averaging 2295 hours annually. The US method in Boston's case, records 14.7% more sunshine than the CS does.

[CryoraptorA303]

 Scorcher Seattle is much more coastal than London, so despite the lower latitude and subtropical ridge influence it struggles to get much warmer.

By the time the SE quadrant and the south coast is going Csb, London and the surrounding area will probably be overtaking Seattle in average temps. Barring the poles, Europe is the fastest-warming landmass in the world, so we can expect to see warming faster than places like the US and we'll probably see numerous European locations overtaking comparable NA ones in the next century.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 I could see London having the climate of current day Bordeaux by 2100, but with much drier summers.

[LetItSnow!]

Today was more “April like” than many recent days with a cool feel but a lot of sunshine. This is no dig and just a personal opinion but I think perceptions of normalcy are rapidly changing. It’s somewhat like the phenomena of people who’ll remark a certain decade as having fine summers in their memory but really they weren’t all that great. It’s not the same but definitely our perceptions of what is normal, particularly the younger, are very skewed, and I say that as someone born in 2001! 

Ponderings on the summer usually end up having a lot of personal opinion mixed in. Some users not wanting to hear about the prospects of a poor summer, some the same but with a hot summer. Probably a mixture of conditions with the usual threat of our new African plumes. A part of me thinks that another classic is more unlikely only due to the fact that 2022 was the last and that is relatively short a time ago. Really good ones tend to be spaced out by around 5 years give or take, though the die is not evenly loaded as we know. There are also some who may not think a summer like 2007 is possible anymore (not just for 2024 but in general) but as we saw last year, extended spells of low pressure can occur in the summer and I expect a sister of 2007/2012 will rear its head very soon, even if it weren’t as cool (Though see the first 20-25 days of July 2020 for a recent example of what would have been a chilly July) and with more moisture in the atmosphere it’s very possible that when it does come it may break the 1912 record.

 

Edited April 9 by LetItSnow!

[Scorcher]

 B87 Interesting if true on the sunshine. Places on the east coast of the US record similar figures to Seattle though and do seem a lot sunnier than the southern UK if you spend a lot of time there.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 cheese me too!!! I'll take it. Not that it'll happen ... We live in clagland now 

 Methuselah his face doesn't look it. I'm not watching 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunSean My heating is on

 B87 expect a change into the furnace from the fridge.come 1st June

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What's cab

 B87 what's csb