General summer chat

[Downburst]

Not sure if anyone posted. But the long range ECM is suggesting probability exceeding the mean temp on the high side, no surprise there given what is ongoing. What about precipitation? Not a bad signal there. Lets hope for a good one anyway, even come hail or shine we will soldier on.

Edited February 9 by Downburst

[raz.org.rain]

 Downburst I've spotted that too, although if I'm not mistaken we usually get the same charts for most of the year these days? They usually go for a certain % above the mean. It's still a promising sign! Hopefully they're demonstrating a persistent Iberian influence there, certainly seems to be the case for France.

[CryoraptorA303]

19 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

These recent summers have impressive-looking CET but this is only down to mild nights and short heat spikes. A lot of the days in a typical contemporary summer struggle to much exceed 20C by day and struggle even harder to achieve 50% of the max sunshine.

With all due respect, I have no idea what you're talking about. Many days in these summers reached average and above average temps outside of heatwaves.

As for sunshine, 1961-1990 summers were duller than today so this has always been the case. I don't know what else you expect.

A summer with notable dry periods and above average temperatures is a good summer by the standards of a mild, dull archipelago. I don't think people are remembering how dull and mild our nation is supposed to be.

People are simply looking at previous summers with rose-tinted glasses and ignoring all of the summers pre-1990 that today would be almost impossibly mild and dull.

As for this whole 2007 cutoff thing, this coincides with the start of the 2008 financial crash (as well as the 2007-2012 aberration). This country's living standards have declined significantly since then and our mental and physical health as a nation is poorer. I believe this is leading us to only remember the bad things about summers post a certain date and ignore the good parts.

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

With all due respect, I have no idea what you're talking about. Many days in these summers reached average and above average temps outside of heatwaves.

I'm talking about July and August 2023, which thankfully I missed, but they did in this area appear to be cool by day (but warm by night, I am focusing on daytime temps here).

I'm talking about the long run of cool and dull weather from mid-June to late August 2021, broken only by the July heatwave.

I'm talking about the cool and dull conditions of the first 10 days or so, and final few days, of June 2020, the first half of July 2020, and the second half of August 2020.

I'm talking about the cool and wet conditions of most of June 2019, and the middle two weeks of August 2019.

I'm talking about the diabolically dull, cool and wet period in summer 2017 from July 19th onwards.

I'm talking about the atrocious excuse for a summer month that was June 2016, and the frequent overcast, cool and breezy westerlies of the first half of July 2016.

I'm talking about the unsettled and dull weather of the last two thirds of July 2015 and the majority of August 2015.

I'm talking about most Julys and Augusts nowadays lacking any sustained periods of settled weather, particularly Augusts. 2022 was literally the only notably good one in the past 15 years, but in the period from 1975 to 2003 we seemed to be getting good Augusts every 3 years or so on average.

I remember the normal maxima in this area in these spells was around 19-20C, at least 2C down on what it should be. Not record breakingly cool by day, but cool enough for it to not feel "summery". And generally accompanied by overcast and often a nagging damp southwesterly breeze.

To be fair I think coastal southern England with its onshore winds has fared particularly badly in recent summers.

As for pre-1990, well I remember 1983, 1984 and 1989 for starters. All three very, very much better than these recent summers. Then there was August 1981, exactly coinciding with the school holidays, a much-underrated warm sunny month.. And the rest - yes, they were cooler - but they were no more unsettled. At the end of the day is 17C and wet (more common in the 80s, I'll grant you that) a lot worse than 19C and wet in summer? Probably not.

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

19 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

if you grew up prior to the 1990s then summers today are something you could only dream of back then..+30c days were a rare beast 

Maybe (and I do remember the summers of the 1980s) but for me it's not the number of 30C days, it's the number of days with average or higher maxima and mostly sunny skies.

These have been very much notable for their absence in most recent summers, particularly July and August.

I'd much prefer a summer with plenty of sunshine, a mean max of 23C, and an absolute max of 27C than a dull, damp and dreary summer with heat spikes like 2023, 2021, 2020, or 2019.

To illustrate what I mean when it comes to "good" and "bad" summers, we could take summer 2017. Was it really that much different to summer 1986? Both had a good-ish first half and dire second half. Granted the second half of 2017 wasn't as cool as that of 1986 but it was almost as unsettled (though I will grant you that there was no Charley, of course). And June 1986 was notably hot, dry and sunny - sunnier (IIRC) than June 2017.

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 it's a tall order asking for a summer that's consistently hot and dry in a maritime climate such as ours. That oceanic element will inevitably have an erratic effect resulting in cooler and wetter spells. Although, I'm a firm believer that we'll eventually hit the bingo card of hot and dry summers, with a pretty persistent spell of heat and a notable absence of precipitation. Under such conditions, I wouldn't expect any cool anomalies to arise. Given the strength of "heat domes" and atmospheric blocking alongside phenomena such as split jet streams, it's probably only a matter of time before such a summer occurs. Given the right ingredients, it certainly is possible, but I'd imagine it would be too intense even for the most ardent of heat fans. We're unprepared for such an event, our infrastructure would show signs of strain.

A summer of persistent heat and sunshine and a drastic absence of cooler weather will likely be the next warning bell/milestone of the signs of change for our climate. Only question is when will all of the right synoptics fall in place for it to occur.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain to be fair I'm not asking for a consistently dry, sunny and warm summer, just one which is dry, warm and sunny around 50% of the time and "mixed" rather than poor for most of the rest of the time. Most recent summers have failed on that front, with any warm sunny spells decidedly transient. A good example of a summer I would reasonably expect most years would be something like summer 1996, which was far better than all recent summers bar 2022 and 2018.

More subtly, most summer unsettled spells nowadays seem to be SW-lies with frequent frontal systems, whereas I'm sure we used to get more frequent weaker slack lows and N-ly/NW-ly airmasses which would produce cooler nights and comparably cool days though lower-DP air and less damp humidity, and therefore more pleasant conditions. Summer 1987 for example was like that for much of the time, if I remember right.

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

11 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

A lot of the days were very cool though, I remember one day it was around 14C and raining all day. Came across a video on YouTube of walk through the streets of London in fairly heavy rain and it was filmed on an evening in July 2023. The temperature? 14°C… I would have expected London to be warmer than that on a summer evening in July, even if it was raining, considering the average max in July there is 24°C. Rainy summer evenings with temps in the low teens are fairly common up here but I would have thought not very common down in the Capital.

Yep, my point was just as a general rule that July 2023 scraped into just above average means (compared to 1961-1990, below average compared to 1991-2020). And the reason for that is that even though the weather for the most part was horribly unsettled, temperatures held up just slightly better than you would normally expect. So yep, there were a couple of absolutely terrible summer days - no more than mid teens by day and very heavy rain. But there were a lot of days that were rainy but closer to 17-18C. Still not enough to feel summery, so it didn't really 'feel' any better.

I think in order for light rain / drizzle to actually feel summery, it has to be accompanied by temperatures in the low 20s.

[Frigid]

 raz.org.rain A summer that's entirely hot and sunny would be impressive, but incredibly hard to achieve in our climate. All of the hottest summers we've endured have had their fair share of cooler spells. In Summer 22, it was cool for the majority of June, July was cool and damp in the north for the first 10 and last 10 days. August 2018 was predominately cool, especially the final 10 days. June 2013 was quite chilly, June 1995 also.. I can go on. There hasn't been an instance where the entire summer was warm, but individual months completely devoid of cool weather yes. Recent examples such as August 2022, July 2018, June 2023 etc. 

Interestingly, if we put June 2023, July 2022 and August 2022 together we could be quite close to a summer without cool and wet weather.. so I wouldn't say it's impossible. That combination would be wild though, easily being the warmest on record. 

Edited February 9 by Frigid

[WYorksWeather]

 Frigid Not to mention the fact that by coupling three such months together, by definition you'd make them hotter. You can't just take the CET averages / record maxes from those months and just add them up. If July 2022 had followed a month as hot and dry as June 2022, that heat spike might have reached 41-42C. Ditto for the August heatwave, which might have peaked at 36-37C. So we would have had a month that combined the hottest June (UK wide, not CET), with an absolute smashing of the all time temperature record, followed by another extreme heatwave in August.

[East Lancs Rain]

 Frigid What about the summer of 1976? I think that was pretty much hot and sunny all the way through. I definitely think it’s possible to get a summer where all three summer months are significantly warmer, drier and sunnier than average. Take May, June and July 2018, three exceptionally good months. If the hot and dry pattern was postponed just a month later, we would have had a summer with three classic summer months.

 

I don’t remember June 2022 being too bad though, I remember quite a few warm and sunny days in that month.

 

 WYorksWeather It was probably a warmer month than expected due to the very warm sea surface temperatures anomalies, but that probably also made it even wetter.

 

To be honest I’d be quite happy with an average summer this year. A summer with a repeat of June 2022, July 2011 and August 2023 would be ok for me.

[Frigid]

 East Lancs Rain June 76 was quite cool at the start and middle. July turned much cooler in the last 10 days which stretched into the start of August.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, East Lancs Rain said:

To be honest I’d be quite happy with an average summer this year. A summer with a repeat of June 2022, July 2011 and August 2023 would be ok for me.

It shows how low our expectations have slid when such a combination is considered good!

[cheese]

 Summer8906 that would be a normal UK summer though tbf. Whether it’s good or not obviously depends on how you feel about average British summer weather (which for most of England & Wales is probably low 20s and partly cloudy - Scotland and NI obviously cooler). 

Edited February 9 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese an average English summer would likely be considered poor by today's standards, I guess it depends on which average we use... the past 30 years or the 1960-1990 bracket? I know most prefer to use the latter.

[cheese]

 raz.org.rain well in 2011 we were using the 1981-2010 averages. A normal summer using the 1961-1990 averages would definitely be seen as poor now, and to be honest I think those averages have very little relevance today (especially considering they coincided with a relatively cool period in Europe, at least in winter).

An average summer using the 1981-2010 averages wouldn’t be too different to 1991-2020.

Edited February 9 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese with an ever changing climate I find myself wondering if the likelihood of an average summer decreases over time. As time moves on, the effects of climate change become more extreme, and each successive year demonstrates greater anomalies as a result. Basically what the infamous hockey stick chart describes!

[cheese]

 raz.org.rain that's a good point. What constitutes an average summer is changing faster than ever. 

[reef]

I'm of the view that our summers haven't fundamentally changed other than they've become warmer on average. What was once a "cool" 14.5C CET summer would now be a 16C summer but the weather is similar, albeit with warmer extremes that are more easily attained.

With that in mind, I think a month like August 1986 is probably beyond us now, whereas a 1976-like summer might be well into the 18s for the CET.

I dont think any amount of background warming is going to make UK summers any more reliable. We'll always get those dreadful days with frontal rain and no sun - it's just instead of it being 14C it might be 16C or 17C eventually.

Edited February 9 by reef

[Frigid]

 reef I still think months like July 1988 are possible. Great example would be July 2020, was very cool for the first 25 days until the heat spike pushed it well into the 15s. That month in general reminded me of the cool summer months we had from 2007-12. Pretty sure the CET was hovering around the upper 14s for a while. 

[East Lancs Rain]

 Summer8906 Yes I think my expectations have been lowered after a very poor July and a mediocre August, as well as all the wet gloomy weather over the past few months. I just want a bit of warmth and sun! At the moment, even a partly cloudy and dry 12-14°C seems wonderful. 17°C and sunny would feel like a heatwave.

 

 

[reef]

 Frigid That's the thing, you'll still get spells that are as cool, but no longer months. We cant sustain cooler than average weather long enough these days. Its the same in winter with just eight sub-3C CET winter months since 1988 (1979 to 1987 had nine alone).

Between 1986 and 1991 we had a 11.9C June (1991), 14.6C July (1988) and 13.7C August (1986). The closest we've got to those values in the last 30 years are 13.5C, 15.3C and 15.4C.

My point is, I think those values are beyond us in 99.9% of cases, but the weather itself has not changed massively. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 East Lancs Rain  East Lancs Rain This is how I feel!!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Frigid depends on the sunspot activity, i beleive in AGW but there are people here who downplay it.  As things are at the moment i can see the summer coming up being a mixture of 1995, 2016 and 2019.   

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 2016 was mostly nondescript and benign if I remember right. 2019 was similar but had some heatwaves. But 1995, isn't that one of the summers of legend? I'm sure no summer fan would argue against a repeat of that. So far I've seen 2020, 2019, 2016, 2010, 2003 and 1995 thrown in as potential analogs. Personally I'm hoping for a 2003 repeat, so far we seem to be following a similar path.