February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.8C +2.2C above average. Rainfall at 63.7mm 97.7% of the monthly average.

Should be a big bump up for tomorrow when today's max gets taken into account. Certainly going to be the 2nd warmest Feb on record for us can it become the 1st is a bit of an ask.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, on 70 mm (approx) and looks set to add 45-50 mm to end of Feb, for a total of 115-120. 

CET estimate on 12z GFS guidance is very close to a record 8.0 C. It will certainly be above 8 a week from now, possibly close to 9.0 by 22nd. Last seven days of Feb appear likely to average about 4 or 5, at 4.5 outcome from 9.0 is between 7.9 and 8.0; it would be odd if leap year day ended up denying a record. Also usual caveat about cold GFS guidance in week two (past performance not encouraging). 

[Roger J Smith]

In the analysis of warmest 31-day intervals for 366 days of year, this is a count of how many days each year took down (first entry, not counting one-dec ties) ... intervals ending 1-30 Jan overlapping two years are given to year with 16 or more of the days. This takes 14 entries ending 1-14 Jan 2016 and places them with 2015, and one entry for 15 Jan 1975 goes back to 1974. 

List is in chronological order. Values in brackets are adjustments for ties in one dec. 

1779 _ 11

1796 _ 3.5 (2.33)

1803 _ 0 (1.5)

1822 _ 4 (4.33)

1828 _ 3 (2.5)

1833 _ 22 (21.83)

1834 _ 0.5 (0.33)

1846 _20 (19.83)

1869 _ 4

1872 _ 1 

1893 _ 6

1903 _ 1 (0.5)

1915 _ 0 ( + part of 11)

1916 _12 (12.5)

1921 _ 2

1945 _ 7 (6.0)

1947 _ 6 (7.0)

1949 _12.5 (11.83)

1957 _15 (15.0)

1961 _ 1 (1.08)

1974 _ 1 (1.5) ( + part of 5 (5.5))

1975 _ 5

1976 _23 (23.5)

1990 _ 9 (8.0)

1992 _ 1 (0.33)

1994 _23

1995 _27 (26.5)

1997 _ 5

1998 _ 1 (1.25)

2001 _ 6

2002 _15

2005 _10

2006 _12 (13.83)

2007 _ 0 (1.08)

2011 _24 (24.0)

2015 _24 (23.0)

2016 _ 1.5 (0.83) ( + part of 14 (13.5))

2017 _ 4 (3.5)

2019 _ 5 (4.08)

2022 _20 (21.0)

2023 _ 19 (18.17)

(If no adjusted value, no ties ... if adjusted value is equal to two-dec total, probably based on equal shares gained and taken away)

BY INTERVALS of 31 YRS

1772-1802 _ 14.5

1803-1833 _ 29

1834-1864 _ 20.5

1865-1895 _ 11

1896-1926 _ 15

1927-1957 _ 40.5

1958-1988 _ 30

1989-2019_ 167.5

2020-2023 already 39 (on a pace to take a lot of the above away)

 

 

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 15th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[BruenSryan]

Yesterday was provisionally the mildest February day on record for the Central England Temperature with a daily mean of 13.7C beating 4th February 2004 which had 12.8C. Also the mildest of any meteorological winter daily CET on record.

[Scorcher]

 BruenSryan Incredible- it's absolutely smashed the previous record as well.

That 2004 record was remarkable in itself in that it came so early in the month.

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I think we have reached the tipping point now to be honest. All records are under threat.  Warmest winter, warmest Feb, warmest year. If a bookie offered me evens odds on any of those three occurring, I would lay a £100 wager. I'd happily take their money.

So I can see this new record in context, does anyone have access to the top 10 mildest daily mean Feb days on record? 

Edited February 16 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[snowray]

Does anyone know what yesterdays max temperature was in the UK, I saw 17c for Heathrow and a few other locations up into the Midlands.

I can't see anything on the Met Office site for max temps yesterday, it's not what it used to be, the web site does not update half the time.

Edited February 16 by snowray

[The PIT]

Kaboom huge jump today which wasn't a surprise.

Sunny Sheffield at 7.3C +2.7C above average. Rainfall 65.9mm 101.1% of the monthly average.

2nd warmest Feb on record. The weekend should produce some more big rises as well then it will taper of a little then perhaps fall a bit depending if any cooler air actually reaches or not.

[weatherforducks]

 snowray 18.1c at Pershore College as per Met Office 

[SqueakheartLW]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see

Warmest year for 2024

Maybe but as we are only in Feb it's far too early to say really but based on how the year is starting I wouldn't rule out yet another 11C CET mean year again. Depends if we maintain this ridiculous mild, warm or hot weather throughout the year or not or we do something similar to 2007 where we start well above average then fall away later in the year.

Warmest winter for 2023/24

I think that may be a bit of a long shot now. The early Dec cold and the Jan cold spell I think have probably ruled out us beating the 2015/16 record of 6.762C now with us provisionally running at 6.313C up to 15th Feb and with only 14 more days of official winter to go it would take an average CET mean of 9.24C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 6.762C record by 0.001C

Warmest Feb for Feb 2024

This one I feel has the best chance of falling since we are so close right now (Provisionally 8.147C up to 15th) and would only take a running mean of 7.64C for the 16th to 29th to beat the previous 7.9C record by 0.002C

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 SqueakheartLW thanks. I would agree with your points. I hope the warmest year doesn't happen. This Feb is going to be a close thing. It does still look like the end of the month will drag it down below 7.9C, but I will be very surprised if it goes below 7C

Edited February 16 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[WYorksWeather]

Probably another 11C or so day today, so I think we'll end up at around 8.3C tomorrow, depending on rounding.

I actually think we may be well into the upper 8s before we see it begin to fall. Dare I even say 9.0C by the 21st?

[snowray]

 weatherforducks Thanks WFD.  I was sure somewhere hit 18c yesterday.

BTW, do you have link where I can find official max/min temps at Met office, cheers.

Edited February 16 by snowray

[snowray]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Yes we are too high now, any cold spell would have to be rather extreme for us to go under 7c, possible with some severe frosts, but not likely.

[weatherforducks]

 snowray UK daily weather extremes - Met Office

[snowray]

 weatherforducks Thanks for that. Seems to be under "climate"... now, what a nightmare to find it.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday also set daily max (16.3) and min (11.1) records. Daily max compares to 16.4 on 13 Feb 1998, and was lower than several from later portion of Feb 2019. It was also an all-time min, previously 10.8 on 4 Feb 2004.

Top ten (eleven due to ties) Feb daily means (all were daily records) before yesterday were:

 1. 12.8 __ 4 Feb 2004

 2. 12.2 __ 3 Feb 2004

 3. 12.1 __12 Feb 1899

 4. 12.0 __29 Feb 1960

 5. 11.9 __12 Feb 1998

t6. 11.8 __18 Feb 1945

t6. 11.8 __ 5 Feb 2004

t6. 11.8 __23 Feb 2012

t9. 11.5 __23 Feb 1998*

t9. 11.5 __27 Feb 1828

t9. 11.5 __24 Feb 2021

_______________________________________

I checked data base to see if any warm days were hidden (in top 20) on same dates as these ten records. Two were behind 23 Feb 2012 (1846, 1998) and one was behind 24 Feb 2021 (1846), otherwise no second warmest values on these ten days would have been in top 20, and 11 to 22 are as follows, second warmest (11.3) for 28 Feb was also included, and also two days tied records on 12 and 16 Feb are included, so top 22 includes record(s) for only 16 different dates (and also 16 different years): 

t12. 11.4 __ 9 Feb 1831 

t12. 11.4 __24 Feb 1846*

t12. 11.4 __ 9 Feb 1903 

t12. 11.4 __ 11 Feb 1939 

t12. 11.4 __ 28 Feb 1959 

t17. 11.3 __ 23 Feb 1846*

t17. 11.3 __ 12 Feb 1878 

t17. 11.3 __ 28 Feb 1960*

t17. 11.3 __ 20 Feb 1990

t17. 11.3 __ 12 Feb 1998

t17. 11.3 __ 21 Feb 2019

t17. 11.3 __ 17 Feb 2023

 

* not daily record

 

[WYorksWeather]

 SqueakheartLW After this February, the annual CET is likely to be on track or slightly ahead of pace for a record-breaking mean CET. However, as you say, it's so early in the year there's not a lot we can say. A couple of near average months or one significantly below average one is all it usually takes to scupper these things, and we have no way of knowing how things will evolve later in the year.

In terms of a record-breaking February, the key will be how high we climb by the 21st, and then we have eight days to drag the CET back down. I've done these calculations on the basis of 8.0C exactly being the target - for a record break in one decimal you can reduce the target for the month by about 0.2C since 7.95C rounds up, and for a tie in one decimal reduce by around 0.5C since 7.85C rounds up.

If we reach 8.5C by the 21st, we would then need to achieve 6.7C for the rest of the month. That looks to be on the upper end of possibilities.

However, if the CET climbs to 9.0C by the 21st, we would only need to achieve 5.4C. That looks much more achievable.

 

[Derecho]

Looking at the output this morning from the 00z's, the GFS has the CET at a peak of 8.4C on the 21st whilst the EC has a CET of 8.6C. Oddly, even at short range the EC has milder minimums then the GFS.

Is the GFS cool biased? After that it turns cooler but not for long on the EC and the CET holds out to 8.2C by the 29th. GFS has a longer run of average temperatures and the CET drops to 7.3C at the end of the month.

So a record very much a possibility if the cooler maritime flow on the 23rd is only a blip. 

Edited February 17 by Derecho

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho I think GFS and ECM usually come in a bit under, apart from two exceptions - overestimation of minima under snow cover, and overestimation of maxima after long, dry, hot spells. Neither is present here, though.

A simple estimate based on yesterday means we should expect the CET to come in at around 8.3C (depending on rounding) when today's update is posted, and Pershore has already reached 13C today and Rothamsted over 10C as of 11am. If minima barely drop back into single figures tonight, around 8C, then that's only going to cause the CET to shoot up again tomorrow.

We then have Sunday to add in as well. I think the ECMs 8.6C is likely closer to the mark, but could still be a little under if anything, in my view.

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather Agreed, yesterday's CET is likely to have come in at around 9.9C according to the obs at Stonyhurst, Pershore and Rothamstad (though I calculated midnight to midnight mean). Both today, tomorrow and the 21st at least should see a daily CET in double figures (again).

The 13.7C for Thursday was truly remarkable.

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 16th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

 Derecho

One way to gauge that 13.7°C value is how many times during March that CET mean was exceeded? 

Edited February 17 by Weather-history

[Metwatch]

Have been holding off in posting a update in here until this weekend to get closer to when the cooldown should begin mid next week, following this longlasting winter blowtorch. Just an incredible value the CET is at currently, and even the minimum CET is a whole degree higher than the previous records of 1903 and 1926 up to today! Also 0.5C higher than the 1991-2020 mean of 5.0!

My guess of 5.4C is definitely too low, and even anyone below 6.0C to even 6.5C will likely still be too low. Somewhere in the ballpark of 7.0C - 7.5C is a good guess as of today to where February could end up. Likely to be warmer than 2 warmest Febuaries of recent times which are 1990 / 1998, but I think 1779 still has a chance at standing.

 

On 12/02/2024 at 09:26, Roger J Smith said:

Top 20 Running CET values 1-14 Feb

Rank __ YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ 1-15 Feb __ Rank 1-15 __ (1-20) __ (1-28 or 29) *leap year 29d

_ 01 ___ 1869 ____ 8.76 _____ 8.73 _____ 1 __________ 8.25 _______ 7.49

_ 02 ___ 2002 ____ 8.16 _____ 7.89 _____ 4 __________ 7.35 _______ 6.97

_ 03 ___ 1914 ____ 8.10 _____ 8.23 _____ 2 __________ 7.39 _______ 6.82

_ 04 ___ 2004 ____ 7.99 _____ 7.91 _____ 3 __________ 7.06 _______ 5.40*

_ 05 ___ 1918 ____ 7.89 _____ 7.72 _____ 6 __________ 6.41 _______ 6.50

_ 06 ___ 1877 ____ 7.85 _____ 7.75 _____ 5 __________ 7.27 _______ 6.20

_ 07 ____ 1779 ____ 7.76 _____ 7.68 _____ 7 __________ 7.99 _______ 7.87

_ 08 ___ 1946 ____ 7.67 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 7.54 _______ 5.91

_ 09 ___ 1948 ____ 7.60 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 6.12 _______ 4.70* 

_ 10 ___ 1903 ____ 7.46 _____ 7.47 _____10 __________ 7.15 _______ 7.11

I've quoted this from Roger as the only year in that top 10 list for highest 1-14 values that had an increase from 1-15 Feb to 1-20 Feb is 1779, and this year will be the second to join that as we continue to see a continued slow rise to possibly 8.5 - 8.6C by next Wednesday!

 

A quick checkup on the EWP following further rain this week and it is at 76.8mm up to Thursday. More to come tonight and through next week. A 100mm month is very likely, and my 105mm entry might still be too low as well. I think only 6 or 7 of us went for 100mm or higher.

An unprecedented month, and it will come down to what the cool down from next week will do to lower the CET and potentially stop this month from dethroning 1779!

Edited February 17 by Metwatch