Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Uncertainty]

Pub run contemplating the 2nd gfs Greenland push of the day?

[Big Gally]

Interesting

[Tim Bland]

Not sure why all the doom and gloom I’m here today. Might not be deep cold and snow for all on the horizon,  but at least the chance of a cold spell with some snow in week 2 is increasing now…

[damianslaw]

Sometimes its good to watch the models run and gain a sense of direction of travel from gleaning where the 'forcing' is coming from. No science involved, just lots of experience at looking at the models.. the 5-6 day timeframe is always key.. we aren't there yet, but I can see a change coming into this timeframe cementing in the days ahead and that is the scrubbing and shifting of euro / iberian heights west thanks to a sharpening of lower heights towards scandi.. this is the trigger out of the current westerly/ south westerly stalemate.. probably won't be until early next week this comes into that crucial 5-6 day timeframe i.e. next weekend.. and a likely slow evolution., all due to a shift and stretch east of core polar vortex positioning. 

Edited January 26 by damianslaw

[Don]

  @Big Gally there has been plenty of interest this winter but so far the UK has yet to really benefit.  Will February be different?!  

[Uncertainty]

Beyond the op fantasies, the best chart of the day for me is this one:

Even as recently as Thursday, the 46 had been keen to stall the mjo in phase 6. Today it firmly pulls it into phase 7 and even mulls a further advance into 8. @feb1991blizzardhas posted the composite already but it’s worth looking at again to see what could be on the line here:

 

Now how does that correlate with the anomalies later in feb on the 46?

 

Rather nicely, one would have to say.

On top of and related to all of this is the frankly ferocious +EAMT burst we’re presently seeing. Some of the +MT is from the rockies but even more of it is East Asian. Along with the tropical progression, It does all feel a bit 2018 but we’ve been burned before this winter and I’m still not fully convinced. The strat parking itself over the  Barents is another factor to consider, quite possibly  a favourable one too. Then there’s the matter of the downwelling waves from the teeny weeny ssw we had. Add in the IOD collapse, the sun, the moon and gravity waves and it’s all a bit much for my brain really. 

 

As ever, look out for the mean flow to shift away from the W directions on the sub 200hr ensembles before popping the corks. However, there has clearly been a positive shift for coldies in the outlook over the past few days and I think/hope some rather exciting charts are coming in the not too distant future…

[Uncertainty]

GEFS looking interesting too…

[northwestsnow]

Well I started the day feeling very despondent...

12 hours later and things suddenly look interesting.. 

Really hope we get a nationwide cold spell in Febuary..

 

[Uncertainty]

  @northwestsnow objectively, the evidence at face value suggests that we should. We’ve got to strike gold at some point nws. So many factors in our favour this time

[Allseasons-Si]

Ladies and gentlemen,..i bring you,...me,hey folks how ya doin

the 18z gefs mean is a significant step to cold than the 12z judging by these mean charts by the 7th of Feb

have a gander...

18z v's 12z

the mean is getting closer to the -5 line

sorry i have not been posting for a while because as you know, i have other personal things to attend to ATM with regards to my OH being ill so please forgive me and i will try and post when i can

thanks.

 

 

Edited January 26 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[blizzard81]

  @Allseasons-Si Nice to see you posting mate. Hope everything is ok at your end. I'm sending you my best wishes

  @Don looking really good tonight mate. Let's see if we can build on this now 

[Don]

  @blizzard81 

Indeed and at least it's January 27th and not February 27th, so we are not looking at March saving the day (yet!).

[blizzard81]

  @Don That's exactly what I'm thinking Don . We've got some time here. 

[feb1991blizzard]

  @Allseasons-Si

Absolute ripper of a GEFS.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

  @blizzard81 Thank you mate,much appreciated

my OH has been diagnosed with Colitis but is treatable thank god

as for the models anom's etc,...things are looking good from the first third of Feb>> but i hold judgement on that until further closer synoptic's

El nino's are back loaded winters and with a E based QBO and weak strat,..all to play for as we enter Feb.

[Allseasons-Si]

  @feb1991blizzard ,heading in the right direction as per the 18z

[Allseasons-Si]

I do like these from the 12th Feb to the 26th on the latest EC46,nice NW +ve height anomalies there.

[That ECM]

Going to be awhile before a clear direction of travel but there’s some nice possibilities.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not a lot going on with 0z runs..let's hope ecm brightens the mood!

[Dennis]

Good weekend all

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm really frustrating..you can see it's trying..but doesn't quite make it..looking at the 192 chart..the best we can hope for after is for a wedge type scenario in my view..let's see..the vortex over scandi just circulating like a washing machine..them Euro heights won't let it sink south!

Edited January 27 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[KTtom]

  @Lukesluckybunch yes, at first glance it looks pretty good at 192, then your eyes are drawn to the massive heights to our south and the conveyorbelt of lows moving west to east in the Atlantic over the top of the high  preventing any ridging. Still, building blocks in a better position for 1 last chance of something a bit more interesting later in the month.

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

yes, at first glance it looks pretty good at 192, then your eyes are drawn to the massive heights to our south and the conveyorbelt of lows moving west to east in the Atlantic over the top of the high  preventing any ridging. Still, building blocks in a better position for 1 last chance of something a bit more interesting later in the month.

Yes true..I suppose one positive is it looks half decent over greenland

[TillyS]

Nothing much of interest still in the models. A chance of a bit of a northerly later out in unreliable timeframe:

 

But the problem remains a lack of northern blocking and a persistent Iberian High. Any talk of pattern changes and telling us something is about to happen in mid-February is really little more than understandable straw-clutching at this stage.

Feet on the ground and eyes on the actual main models please.

 

[TillyS]

That fleeting pressure rise over Greenland, which is gone as quick as it arrives, is the wrong kind of high. You need greens, yellows and, best of all, deep orange. A proper solid block, which this isn’t:

 

There’s little of cold consequence in the main models for the UK in the foreseeable future. That may change, and probably will, but there's no real evidence of it for now.

Edited January 27 by TillyS