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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

  @feb1991blizzardSome record breaking cold late Feb you said last night with some -10 flat liners where is this as i don't see any evidence 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

T240 I look at these each morning to see if there’s a way forward to cold. I’ll keep looking but it’s not great viewing at the moment but we live in hope.😄

IMG_1231.png

IMG_1230.png

IMG_1229.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T240 I look at these each morning to see if there’s a way forward to cold. I’ll keep looking but it’s not great viewing at the moment but we live in hope.😄

Yea awful output at the moment..but the longer term outlook is to hp to really take hold further into february..perhaps the models will start to pick the signal soon!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)

the fun is just to start

im I'm disgusted by the 500hpa charts....

image.thumb.png.c4c3b79192b2f48800ca1a5faa72e51d.pngimage.thumb.png.bac4564dd8b3a37208b99a7493ca9ebe.png

Edited by Dennis
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

  @winterof79

It hasn't come into range yet, we need the MJO that little bit further (7/8) ish, anyone expecting E'ly's to pop out of nowhere in modelling were always likely to be wide of the mark, - very earliest 10th feb for start of transition, very latest 25th.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

MOGREPS ensembles show some astonishing warmth for the start of Feb

image.thumb.png.ea42ebaff9dcaa76a75a5c8c6a9e8e44.png

May as well chase spring as chasing winter is a complete and utter waste of time! And 15Cs and 16Cs are surely possible this time next week. Incredible. I want cold and snow this time of year but, even so, it's going to be interesting to see what temps we will experience. It does look quite windy so that will take the edge off but if the sun breaks out anywhere in the east temps could rocket. Night time temps are going to be potentially record-breaking

Feb really is turning into a spring month (although I still suspect there will be some cold in the 2nd half of Feb) but I still didn't think the above was possible, so early in Feb, despite what's happening climate-wise

All those positive signs and this winter still looks like being another huge fail. It's been October or March-like conditions for most of the first 2 months

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

Its getting quite ridiculous how Scandi trough never managed this winter to correlate with anything meaningful down below. Its been on and of cold Up north with very little revenue down south. This is appearing again during this period for which some would say "hopefull switch to something colder" while Iam looking at Meteogram and its showing double digits here 😞

In general i am now very confident that this winter will end up quite difficult to distinguish from past two. The odd week here and there of coolish weather and thats about it.

IMG_20240126_085703.jpg

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

There's no doubt the weather pattern will change ,the unseasonably warm weather sooner or later over Spain for instance will come to an abrupt end ,with dramatic flooding and cold as the current jet stream profile changes and delivers cold to the UK,  it's not about If but when!  Meanwhile ,the search for Winter cold continues.....😨😩😲

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ecmt850.240.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted

image.thumb.png.fc1c9781ccef315282fe1fbaa05b8df6.png
00z look at the scatter from the 05th from years of studying and learning this model that’s a pattern change coming up which way? Is the question 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

Good Morning,

Well, there is not a lot to add to the dreadful output this morning and what has already been said. There still is a small chance here for more seasonal weather from the fifth onwards, but winter is far away atm. We have a choice between westerly and southwesterly winds. It seems like the Iberian high retrogresses towards home at the Azores, but that is all. 

eps_pluim_tt_06280 (4).png

eps_windrichting_kanspluim_06280 (2).png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

  @feb1991blizzard Cheers Feb didn't read back enough

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
29 minutes ago, AO- said:

We have a choice between westerly and southwesterly winds.

Or, in other words, between a rock and a hard place

This is a ridiculously warm chart from UKMO

image.thumb.png.59ce26ea340fb3cea4132b91bacddb59.png

Less than a week away

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Sickening 00z runs.

What happened to a  Nino / eQbo back loaded  winter?  this one is getting worse the closer we get to Feb.

image.thumb.png.fae95a46264d37999fad2e9148765201.png

Yet again promising background drivers amount to nothing for Europe.

You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict masses of high latitude blocking come April...

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

  @northwestsnow I think the gurus aren't expecting any changes until mid February at least which is pretty much outside the model range.

Of course we can expect unknown unknown to topple the positive teleconnections, but that is par for the course.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

  @northwestsnow Northern blocking has always been more common in spring than winter.

Some people swear by the background signals - but as time goes on, I pay less and less attention to them because the only time they seem to be reliable is when they show zonal!

As the days lengthen, my mind now starts to wander towards spring. We're talking mid-February for any chance of cold, and by then the synoptics need to be that bit more special as the sun is strengthening.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM clusters from T192 onwards:

IMG_8580.thumb.png.bd6320d3fd5bdaf06150234da9500175.pngIMG_8581.thumb.png.de7de75a94c32541b447e020422ee530.png

There is interest to develop an Atlantic ridge of some sorts from day 8, but the evolution thereafter is a bit of a mess.  I’m not seeing a clear signal for a Greenland high here, rather the possibility that some clearer signal might develop once the trend to a more amplified pattern gets underway.  Maybe a little soon for a response to the MJO.  But time is tight now, particularly for the south, as the period of interest is now mid February.  

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
2 hours ago, Dennis said:

suddenly 😃

3-5 febr

 

image.thumb.png.5576a3751b7498712c83e59a0e83c378.png

Doesn't really mean anything, just a function of the westerly moving Canadian high, a break from the Canada PV lobe for a time, perhaps more Euro ridge building so milder and drier but not much else.

image.thumb.png.1f95ad7da90760484164d57efb1e3595.png

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted

Corker inbound.

image.thumb.png.6b8739874fc7627fcd51b23661cb93e5.png

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

GFS doesn't have 850 temps as high as MOGREPS and this morning's UKMO run. But still time for, er, 'upgrades' if you can call it that

image.thumb.png.eda605d8dfc7796d3bace07ae4e6319a.png

Hope we do get some kind of cold spell next month as, unscientific observation though this is, I always feel we pay for Feb warmth with crap March's and April's. A cold March I can just about live with but after the clocks go forward, it's warm, warm, warm all the way please (well, until late Sept)

  • Like 1
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