Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Dennis]

GH forseen 

[Cloud 10]

Possibility of a historic storm event for Northern Scandi next week with +100mph gusts easily.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=90

 

Some GEFS down to 915mb.

 

[dryfie]

With regard to the name of this thread;  overnight output was suggesting absolute maxima of 15c for NE Scotland today (particularly Moray), with cooler weather to the NW.  In the event it has been only around 10c in the NE whilst a new UK record approaching 20c has been reported in the NW Highlands.  Any thoughts on how the models could have been so far out (they know about foehns)?

[MJB]

Different looking GFS 

[northwestsnow]

6z v 12z 

Laughable

[WYorksWeather]

GFS going a bit silly season again with the storms. Think we'll need another few days to get a handle on this.

Scandinavian windstorm 1:

2:

3:

Then a potential UK windstorm at day 10:

 

Again, this is just one GFS OP run, so not to be taken at all seriously on this. But just illustrates the areas of uncertainty the models will have to grapple with over the next 7-10 days.

I therefore don't think anything about the evolution into mid-February will be foreseeable until we get past this period.

[northwestsnow]

GEM 

oh well  we might see some cold by April..

Horrid 12zs so far.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks similar to GFS  168

GFS = mild wet and windy .

You have to LOL,nearly 20deg in parts of Scotland..

 

[feb1991blizzard]

  @northwestsnow

Do not panic, 10th earliest cold to arrive - GFS out to 9th, more importantly, ensembles only just started.

Edited January 28 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

  @feb1991blizzard

You  never know .

I think the volume of posts says it all,the public have voted with their feet

[Ice Day]

  @northwestsnow

You're not wrong, absolutely abysmal 12z's so far.  Mind you, it's probably down to the weekend and lack of flight data! 

The GFS does at least have the common decency to give a crumb of comfort... by day 15 

#

 

[Battleground Snow]

Control looking quite wintery.

As @feb1991blizzard said earlier I don't think we can expect a high lat block until mid February.

Some pm shots would be welcome before that though.

[AO-]

  @WYorksWeather

Where the 06 was wrong with not deepening  the shortwave near the eastcoast of Canada correctly at 168h (imo), the 12 is very progressive. It seems like the GFS is struggling. I'm not sure what is causing this, but I wouldn't pay too much attention to GFS at the moment. The huge difference is caused by how it deals with that particular shortwave. 

[nick sussex]

A poor start to the evenings outputs .

The UKMO the best of a poor bunch with a chance the upstream troughing is held back long enough and the Atlantic shortwave could cut se helping to pull some colder air se .

Over to the ECM which hasn’t done much to fly the flag for coldies over the last few days .

Hope springs eternal .....

 

[Chesil View]

I'm sure people were giving up on winter on 28th Jan 2018 as well.

Edited January 28 by Chesil View

[mountain shadow]

  @SLEETY No reason to be dis

We shouldn't be expecting until mid February anyway, that's still 17 days away, so I'm personally not expecting to see decent model output until at least this time next week.

[Kasim Awan]

Yeah a very strong Iberian high on model output clearly deflecting away any northerly pushes in the next 10 days.

[SLEETY]

  @Chesil View 2028? 

[Dennis]

soon 1 febr 

lets wait for 3-5 febr first , 

 

[Chesil View]

  @SLEETY corrected to 2018. Fat finger syndrome.  

 

[Tim Bland]

One for south coast crew …. Probably end up in Spain

[Sweatyman]

  @Tim Bland no probably about it !

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

I'm sure people were giving up on winter on 28th Jan 2018 as well.

No, we weren’t.  If I recall correctly, we were avidly following the build up to the (well predicted in advance) SSW, with good reason to expect a favourable outcome - which, of course, there was.

There are three good reasons why this chase is not gathering momentum:

• There are no really decent charts showing consistently on the operational models.  
• While there are hints from teleconnections and the 46 of wintry potential from mid-February, we are all very well aware from the January chase that that is only at most half the battle for an island in our location.
• The stakes are lower.  The January chase held the chance for a prolonged cold spell with reloads for the rest of winter.  The upcoming spell cannot, time is already running out.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all, ECM showing some better hope of colder weather in a better time frame than it’s competitors still uncertainties on how this well advertised colder period will establish itself but I feel some better idea will show up in next 24/48 hrs patience is the word it will happen.

[Blessed Weather]

Please don't respond to off-topic posts such as "winter's over" and "can't be bothered anymore". Those posts have been moved to the Model Banter & Emotions thread where they belong. Thanks.