Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Tim Bland]

Look at this temp anomaly in the states..always a good sign for us ! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Half Term whiteout

[damianslaw]

GFS 6z and 12z in natural synergy... a rarity.. we had a similiar evolution from ECM at the 10 day range on a couple of recent runs. Will be interesting to see if it reverts back to something akin to where GFS has been heading in the 6z and 12z. 

An observation is how the 0z runs tend to be far less progressive than the 6z and 12z runs.. 

[Mike Poole]

Good run from the GFS 12z, following on from the 6z earlier.  But the uncertainty with this is huge, the spread on GEFS at T228:

Spot the UK!  Not for the first time, it is the one place in the NH that the model hasn’t got a clue about!  This one is not getting resolved any time soon.

[Metwatch]

50 minutes ago, TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN said:

Where is Matt Wolves when you need him 

He seems to have migrated onto X / Twitter, his handle @MATTYWOLVES3

[syed2878]

 .Not really inspiring run at this moment no sign of any February cold here is the deep dive from the Met talking of northern storm this week and beyond.

 

[northwestsnow]

Better GFS but sadly UKMO going down the flat as a pancake route.

Lesson I've learnt, it's pointless putting any faith in GFS fantasy island charts when UKMO or EC disagree at day 6.

[SLEETY]

 damianslaw any reason why that is, regarding the 00z runs, Been happening for years. Excellent gfs run is this the signs of recovery just when the outlook for cold looked completely bust? 

Edited January 30 by SLEETY

[Gowon]

 Spah1 The UKMO is an improvement from this morning.

[Spah1]

 syed2878 What about the high pressure in the Atlantic  in week 2 and 3 giving us cold weather?

 Gowon I can’t see it. 

Edited January 30 by Spah1

[damianslaw]

 Spah1 There is a arctic high forecast on UKMO chart - or at least a build of heights direct over the pole, stretching and splitting the polar vortex. Its important to monitor changes over the polar profile as much as what is happening in near vicinity as this gives greater clues on upstream developments i.e. whether a more amplified wave takes hold, generally stronger heights over the pole increases chance of deeper troughs and ridges north-south aligned rather than flat zonal flow. 

Edited January 30 by damianslaw

[Purga]

 Gowon Are you easily impressed?

[damianslaw]

 SLEETY I don't know, and may be based on perception rather than fact, but it seems a singularity.

[Gowon]

 Purga Might be, but I'm not gullible

I'm more trying to be positive

[keithlucky]

Winter returns around February 10th

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN said:

Where is Matt Wolves when you need him

@MATTWOLVES 3

[Stuie]

ECM fancies a Greeny High attempt on this run.

[Battleground Snow]

Not a bad ecm at day 9.

Finally seeing some mjo effects

[Cloud 10]

Nice day 9 wedgie from ECM 12z.

 

[Gowon]

The ECM rounds off a positive afternoon:

[Tim Bland]

would be 10cm + widely by day 11!

Edited January 30 by Tim Bland

[Eagle Eye]

The GFS 12Z is a very familiar scenario for the south

In all seriousness, good set of runs. Perhaps a trend in the right direction. 

[Mark wheeler]

Ok the runs this afternoon have put my optimism up a tad . Nice trend  

[blizzard81]

 Gowon Gowon then!

[blizzard81]

The great thing about the 12z ecm is that there's also many more cold members on the gfs 12z at the same time - circa 9th Feb.