Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[johncam]

So according to latest model runs the cold spell is happening now again. EC46 been poor again as no sign of heights to our NW 

[Chesil View]

Nwp ops showing a real disconnect to all the available background signals.  Must admit I was expecting something better this morning in view of ecm clusters etc in the medium/longer term.

We shall see how things pan out but it's going to take a big and sustained change and soon in the medium/longer range nwp to convince me that this winter is going to offer anything better than we've already had. 

Which away from the usual suspects is in reality. Not much at all

[nick sussex]

A sorry bunch of outputs this morning barring the UKMO .

The Gold Model for awfulness goes to the GFS , a horror show for coldies .

The ECM less awful but still too much energy spilling over the top with the high to the east orientated poorly .

The UKMO is the best at day 7 with a likely high to the ne building but at that timeframe I’ve never known it trump the others if it’s got the best solution for coldies .

The GEM similar to the ECM .

Overall no real progress in terms of cold prospects in the medium term and with winter ticking down very little time now to salvage another woeful winter.

If you get some snow over the next few days make the most of it !

 

Edited February 7 by nick sussex

[Purga]

Record breakingly mild February on the cards if GFS 00z were to verify. A few odd cold stragglers only.

Typical example below pretty much sums up the entire run!

 

ECM not a great deal better although the Russian High is 'slightly' more favourably placed for a coolish SE waft if we're very lucky.

PS: I seem to recall a year or two ago, when UKMET kept suggesting a cold February in their extended forecasts much like now. This was always being put back and we ended up record breakingly mild. Déjà vu ?

Edited February 7 by Purga

[ANYWEATHER]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. UKMO charts for tomorrow shows a bit of resistance against the milder incursion. Will be a cold day across the North with temp struggling to get above freezing , say north of the Humber.Could be a fair bit of snow, especially above 200m. Looking further a head , GFS op seems to be on warm crusade presently but generally against its own mean runs .. Of course could be on the money ? The longer term trends seem to be a rise in pressure to the east.

Gfs performance has been great as of late ,in fact it's had many triumphs,  for many it's throwing in the towel time as regards anything resembling classic winter conditions.  As regards tommorows mish mash ,most of any wintry weather will be on high ground in the North ,and even that will be quickly washed away! Looks like Southwesterly winds will be with us for a while now....

[MJB]

 weathercold Just a reminder Winter hasn't finished and March can really deliver.

 

 Djdazzle As above

[E17boy]

Well I think from this mornings horror show on the models the writing on the wall is getting darker and darker and the alarm bells are getting louder and louder. Once again the heights further south have added salt to the wounds. I have been saying all along unless those heights in the south are rid of then getting a cold pattern established is a challenge in itself. I am no expert at all but through my years I have seen many winters where outside drivers have been very favourable for cold but Iberian heights have put brakes on any cold pattern. I think there is a lot of learning still to do as to why these heights are really persistent , maybe as our location these will always be there. Anyway nothing to write home about on the output as I said last week I will give it until this Friday when it may be time to draw curtains on this winter. There’s me still hoping. For a drastic turnaround. No doubt if the output stays the same I expect a huge change in the Met outlook.

regards 

[bluearmy]

37 minutes ago, johncam said:

So according to latest model runs the cold spell is happening now again. EC46 been poor again as no sign of heights to our NW 

Week 2 eps …….torquay hotel window ???.

[bluearmy]

I did say last week jan that I had concerns that feb could be a v frustrating month with patterns that bit too far north for the U.K. to benefit 

it is panning out that way atm but with a notable reversal of upper flow likely just beyond  mid month we can expect the modelling to struggle and flap around a bit now as it looks beyond day 10 

as @feb1991blizzard has noted, the gfs op modelling of the strat looks somewhat strange over the past few runs. 

Edited February 7 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 2 looks decent with a block to the north.  Not quite sure how this happens, though, because it is against the run of play, which the other clusters show is for mild weather, clusters 2 and 4 with high pressure nearby at T240.

T264+:

Much more uncertainty, so is the strong blocking pattern starting to disintegrate? (I’m kind of expecting it to, although for no good reason other than what can go wrong, will go wrong!)  Well, clusters 5 and 6 emphatically go for the Greenland block.  Cluster 3 does also, although it looks a little weaker, it is still well positioned.  Cluster 1 is also blocked, but very unfavourably positioned.  Cluster 2 high centered just north of UK at day 15.  Which just leaves cluster 4 (8 members) with no appreciable blocking.  So, as you were, the signal is still there, and we still have to get lucky re positioning of the blocking.

 

Edited February 7 by Mike Poole

[MJB]

But what I do agree with is, all the background signals were pretty good and the seasonal models were shouting about a back loaded winter and EC46 is still showing something promising around the corner and MET are still promoting cold. 

Maybe we are impatient and by the weekend we will have a magic moment and the models will show the MET and EC as being correct , I for one won't throw the towel in until the MET change their thoughts.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM / GEM keen in the 9 /10 day period building the Scandinavian high to start to influence the UK weather while GFS takes the fast forward option of Atlantic controlled S/westerlyflow.I do not normally predict in regards to the charts but I feel the end product after the weekend lows have resolved their final track and positioning is still very much up for debate,could be a surprise on the cards,we shall see.

[jamesthemonkeh]

CFSv2 has upgraded the high pressure anomaly for March to the north-west of the UK...but on the flip side, there is also a low pressure anomaly to the west of Spain/Portugal.  The former suggests cold, the latter suggests warm.  Interesting, if nothing else.

Edited February 7 by jamesthemonkeh

[Ice Day]

Well, a quite shocking set of overnight runs.  At times of desperation, I migrate to the ensembles in the hope of salvation there, unfortunately, this morning to no avail. 

In fact, between 129-288hrs, my location never has more than 2 of the 32 ensembles showing 850's of below -5. Thin gruel by any standard.  I did expect better having seen the GEPS last night, hopefully the extended set from the 0z will provide some cheer.

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS were never all that interested but the EPS have massively backed away from cold now too. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

PS: I seem to recall a year or two ago, when UKMET kept suggesting a cold February in their extended forecasts much like now. This was always being put back and we ended up record breakingly mild. Déjà vu ?

Yes, that was in 2019 and I'm expecting something very similar to occur this month.

[Ice Day]

26 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GEFS were never all that interested but the EPS have massively backed away from cold now too. 

A smidge better than the GEFS, but that's not saying much 

What's that saying.... 'it's always darkest before dawn'! 

[Don]

57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Week 2 eps …….torquay hotel window ???.

Familiar looking recent winter chart with pressure to the south scuppering cold reaching us?!

54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

as @feb1991blizzard has noted, the gfs op modelling of the strat looks somewhat strange over the past few runs. 

Everything seems to be strange at the moment!

[bluearmy]

 Don but high anoms to nw 

sadly the anomoly charts are a mean so will contain clusters 

To say there are no high anoms to our nw isn’t correct 

the problem (as ever) is to our south 

Edited February 7 by bluearmy

[Don]

 bluearmy yes, that’s what I said.

[nick sussex]

An improved GFS 06 hrs run from a very low base .

The limpet low doesn’t phase with vorticity to the nw so we don’t get the deeper low edging nw .

It’s a start ! 

Edited February 7 by nick sussex

[BarnetBlizzard]

It would seem more natural for the low pressure to disrupt southeast, high pressure to meet near Iceland and winds to veer from the East as per my badly drawn red arrows 

But the low pressure is absorbed north west (albeit less so than the 0z)

[IDO]

Look how cold Europe is at D9:

Even with a transient easterly flow there is little to tap into with a bloated Siberian high, as usual being a negative in setups like this. Could feel Spring-like between the frontal rain. In December this would be a hiatus, in mid-Feb this is a winter killer.

Watch the cold block to the NE be sucked north over 48 hours:

Edited February 7 by IDO

[MP-R]

 Don well if we’re going to do mild, let’s at least do it 2019 style, not just more dull southwesterly dross.

Wind needs to be more southerly or southeasterly really. Then again, if the latter, we may pull in cooler air the long way round.

[BarnetBlizzard]

 nick sussex  GEFS mean a slight improvement - more energy disrupting south east.  I understand I might be straw clutching...