Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[phil nw.]

There looks to be an ongoing trend to ridge heights later in week 2 but as yet no sign of troughing getting underneath.

[johncam]

Think the back loaded winter is a busted flush unless the models show something soon. With the great background signals what's happened other the unmentionable CC I wonder.

[Bricriu]

 johncamthe story of the winter really. Any cold that does try to make it gets cut off, but for the spoiler Iberian High this could have been a winter to remember . Well and truly sick of it now. I was hoping we'd get a noticeable late February  cold spell to rescue this winter but it doesnt seem likely now

Edited February 9 by Bricriu

[WYorksWeather]

16 hours ago, Daniel* said:

You say that but Northern Europe/Scandinavia is expecting coldest winter since 2009/10. The deep cold has been persistent in upper Europe, potentially accessible to wider Europe things have just not aligned at least yet. Again an illustration in a warming world… persistent cold anomalies can occur regionally. I personally don’t see the value in looking at entire Northern Hemisphere you need to look at areas with relative proximity to UK where the cold originates to our north and east. I don’t see why for example a very warm Canadian winter means much to us.  

Yep, it has been very cold there. The problem is where we are now, though. A lot of runs show the cold over Scandinavia dissipating except in the far north, which leaves virtually no noteworthy cold anywhere within about a 500 mile radius.

[WYorksWeather]

I'll be back with the usual look at the 12z ensembles later on. First off though, here's the latest CFSv2. Which I'll admit, isn't worth much at the best of times. But just nice to have another long range model to look at alongside the EC46.

The weeklies are going for above average temperatures in weeks 1 and 2, especially so in the south. By week 3, we have average conditions prevailing everywhere, then below average in week 4.

Unfortunately no real drying trend. Rainfall slightly above average in weeks 1 and 2, then near average. No sign of the prolonged spell of settled weather we need to dry out the ground and hopefully mitigate any further flooding issues.

[MJB]

CFS = Can't forecast snow ............about as reliable as EC46, both are great when showing eye candy but in reality not much clue beyond 7-10 days.........................like most models I guess 

[nick sussex]

You almost aren’t surprised anymore .

The ECM now drops its more interesting morning output. Even when you have better background signals it just seems we’re more likely to see a manned mission to Mars land before we   get a decent cold spell .

No doubt the perfect synoptics will land in the Spring .

 

Edited February 9 by nick sussex

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 Cambrian

Thanks for this post @Cambrian I'd like to highlight a few points with the 1st being the tendency for Scandinavian trough developments, this is a common feature of El Ninò using these from some of my recent posts

And focusing in on February tendencies with El Ninò 

You have no idea how much I appreciate your optimism as my interest in this thread overall was dwindling somewhat with endless pages of moany vibes which should really be for the moans thread but hey ho, I get the despondency of those yet to see snow however there HAVE been events fitting of winter during both winter months thus far. 

We continue to see excellent representation of exactly what you'd expect given recent, current and probable upcoming MJO progression

Taking the CFS weeklies as a great example the surface temperatures are again corresponding with what is common with El Ninò overall & El Ninò in February 

Accompanying precipitation anoms are also where you'd expect to be in Feb

With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall.

Factor in the +PNA its what I'd expect 

[Lukesluckybunch]

And there goes your ecm run right there..at 192..under the influence of mild southwesterlies!what a joke!..I was really looking forward to the ecm..after seeing that ukmo

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Addin

[TEITS]

 Lukesluckybunch +240 ECM may surprise you!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

+240 ECM may surprise you!

Oh a nice day 10 chart..most likely!haha..absolute horror show at 216

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Lampostwatcher]

Another good run from ECM 

Hopefully the 00z will be similer ❄

[CoventryWeather]

 frosty ground let's narrow it down. 

I'd just like a week or two of dry sunny weather. Is that too much to ask? 

Consistent gloom and rain is an awful way to end the extended autumn. 

Edited February 9 by CoventryWeather

[nick sussex]

 TEITS

Sadly even the surprises at day ten don’t go anywhere . 

Time to put this winter out of its misery . Even worse that we didn’t really have a strong PV for most of the winter which makes the fact it was generally woeful even more disappointing.

We might get thrown a few scraps towards March but once again it’s been a winter to forget .

[johncam]

 TEITS I take it you were being ironic.

[WYorksWeather]

Whilst we wait for the ECM ensembles, just a quick word on the GFS.

Tonight's 12z just looks like a continuation of a generally boring pattern, frankly. It looks mild in the south, nearer normal further north, until at least the 18th or so. Beyond that, a slight cooling trend, and by the time we get to 22nd and beyond, something possibly a little colder. However, a real lack of notably cold ensembles means I'm not seeing any reason to get overly excited at this stage. Need to see if that signal intensifies or not in the days ahead.

Now a look at the ensemble mean for days 5, 10 and 15.

 

You can see that we have a bit of blocking at day 5, but by sod's law we end up pumping up some Iberian heights again that scuppers any attempt at anything particularly cold, and by day 15 it's just a very flat pattern.

At all times as well, the nearest very deep cold (-12C and lower at 850hPa) is kept locked away no closer than far northern Scandinavia. Which is yet another problem to be overcome, unfortunately. We almost need a two stage process from here - something to bring deep cold a little closer to the UK (across Scandinavia again or eastern/central Europe), and then the right pattern to send it our way from there.

And time is definitely not on our side...

[nick sussex]

We seem to have had a general pattern this winter where any amplification even at closer timeframes tends to get watered down .

Also it’s been a real struggle to get energy to head se .

We can see it with the output . We have that wedge but everything runs more ne .

 

[WYorksWeather]

About the only positive from the end of the ECM is at least it looks dry and mild rather than wet and mild, perhaps more so for the south, but still.

If it's going to be like that I hope it goes the whole way and we get a couple of spring-like days with temperatures widely into the mid-teens out of it. It'd be better than cold drizzle.

Probably not worth commenting further until we see where the ensembles have gone.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Time to put this winter out of its misery . Even worse that we didn’t really have a strong PV for most of the winter which makes the fact it was generally woeful even more disappointing.

Yes, another poor ECM - will wait to see what the ensembles say, but I would not be surprised to see a down turn after promising clusters this morning.

You’re right about the PV - there has been an extremely weak strat vortex all winter (since the Canadian warming, in fact), which another time could have produced an epic winter, but as far as the trop patterns were concerned this year what can go wrong has gone wrong.  For snow in my location, and barring a major turnaround in the next 20 days, it has been the 4th consecutive 0/10 winter.  

Never mind, next winter model watching will be much easier.  My predictions are:

• Westerly QBO winter.
• After brief northerly tease, rampant PV sets up shop over Greenland in the first week of December.
• Safe to declare winter over on 7th December and we can go and do something more productive instead.

[swfc]

 nick sussex yes nick its been a hard slog esp for the members on here who put a lot of time and effort on the thread. A lot of great background signals, synoptics "at times" but the heighths etc to the south seem to be an  insipid winter feature.

[nick sussex]

 Mike Poole

A rampant PV whilst depressing means you don’t get false hope .

Theres also an issue this winter with ensembles and the ECM 46 which I’m beginning to loathe .

Anyway I’m sounding very moany and will likely receive one of those action taken against .....

You know it sounds like you’re going to be hauled away and chucked in a cell, but in reality you just were a bit moany and the mods moved your post ! 

 

[Met4Cast]

I can’t say i’m surprised by this evenings ECM in all honesty, although little point in analysing individual deterministic runs when we’ve got ridiculous amounts of ensemble spread, it’s virtually impossible to pick out a route forward using NWP modelling alone. 

Teleconnections aren’t providing much in the way of clarity either, equatorward fluxing of AAM anomalies are I suspect, helping to strengthen/maintain heights to the south of the UK whilst MJO through phases 7 & likely into weak amplitude 8 suggests blocking of the higher latitude type, two evidently opposing signals & an occasion when the tropics & sub tropics are not aligned towards the same potential outcomes, i.e opposing signals playing havoc with both NWP modelling & our ability to forecast in the medium-extended range with any clarity or confidence. 

A potential SSW in the mix too only further complicates the picture. I think getting cold into the UK is going to be difficult, particularly further south and particularly during February. 

It’s a case of waiting & seeing how things transpire at the moment, not much hope can be offered in terms of cold outcomes though. 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,UKMO and ICON the best charts for cold while ECM goes on one of its walk about still lots of chopping and changing for next weekend,but I remain quietly confident of northern blocking showing it self on the charts as we progress into the coming week.

[Lukesluckybunch]

That ecm run really is a shocker!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 nick sussex ok so why do you think this is? Because its been uncanny this winter. Where's the jet stream surely it's straight over us lol