Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Cloud 10]

 phil nw.

 

The ECM control run delivers pretty much what you describe is needed for a decent March cold spell.

 

[phil nw.]

 Cloud 10

Yes just about the best solution for the coldest out come now.

The heights around Iceland there rather than Scandinavia.

We can see those uppers remain less modified by the shorter sea track from Norway.

[andymusic]

GFS 18z picking up where ecm came in earlier - fantastic charts

[Wilko999]

 andymusicnice to look at, wont happen of course.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 andymusic it seems as though a similar evolution of the weather is picked up by NOAA anomolies albeit there is only 2 out of 5 confidence rating for it which is below average.   

 

 

So a best idea not to trust the models as things stand and wait until more runs come, I'd say trust the MJO to be fair.   

[WYorksWeather]

ECM and GFS 12z ensembles going for average and above average temperatures respectively for the first half of March.

Chilly surface conditions still quite possible though under any sort of continental flow at this time of year. Temperatures probably close to average at the surface, especially with ECM, though GFS does have some warm outlier potential around day 10.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi guys,sorry for not posting,been a bit off it of late with my OH's illness

the synoptic charts from the models have every chance of verifying an easterly at this time of the year thanks to La nina(cold back end of winter) and with the SSW that has just happened recently would fit the bill too,of course we still have some milage to get it down to T-0 but i have been viewing the charts/anomalies etc for some time now and i do see some consistancy in them

here staight out of the blocks is the latest 500mb height anomaly from the EPS currently out to 336 hrs

you can see the trough undercut(-ve heights) to the south and +ve heights to the N/NW,this would fetch in an easterly

and the wind direction probabilities from De-built showing a strong easterly 

whether it will be cold enough for snow is yet to be decided for a while but i am keeping an eye or two on this

CPC in the same-ish ballpark.

i will add further in the coming days if this easterly gains traction

night all

[feb1991blizzard]

A GEFS lone straggler supports ECM solution.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Allseasons-Si funny how we posted the same chart in here, whether this gets traction or not will depend on the MJO as @Kirkcaldy Weatherhighlighted earlier in the thread.    

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

So a best idea not to trust the models as things stand and wait until more runs come, I'd say trust the MJO to be fair. 

How can you trust the MJO if you can't trust the models producing the forecasts?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho exactly, however i think the MJO currently is indian ocean based as things stand.    Then travelling through the maritime continent eventually to the western Pacific.   What weather will transpire I think @Kirkcaldy Weatherlatched onto to be honest.    

It's going to be an absolute nightmare forecasting the next two weeks and I think the final warming of the stratosphere will give ramifications on the NWP output and send the models into a meltdown.    

Climate Prediction Center - Daily MJO Indices

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited February 29 by Addicks Fan 1981

[andymusic]

 Derecho absolutely - at the moment the models all seem to be singing from a similar hymn sheet - so it could very well be the push from the ssw that's sending them this way via a reversal around the 8th/10th March

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 andymusic mind you did 1995 have a ssw? It may have done and march of that year was colder than February.    

[Derecho]

If we were to treat the MJO as gospel we should see an easterly flow around the 10th but the composites are weak:

 Phase 3

 Phase 4

Not much of a signal there at all. Phase 5 has a mild signal but we wouldn't notice the impacts of that till the end of the month. At that point the SSW may also be having an impact.

It's difficult to predict how March will turn out at the moment. The good news is it looks more settled after the low pressure clears away but we don't know if we will get a chilly easterly or a warm SE / Southerly wind.

It's all just random chaos at the moment but with westerlies receding as they usually do come spring.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho think March 1995 had some easterlies after what came in February, this year I feel maybe no different.

[Derecho]

 Addicks Fan 1981 March 1995 was dominated by a chilly polar maritime flow from the west or north-west rather then easterlies.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho did 1995 also have an ssw as well as that during the same spot of the year as we have now? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can’t say I’m surprised by this as March always looked nailed on for N blocking to take hold.

It would be hasty to rule out a cold pool pushing across the UK in the next couple of weeks.

Growing support for a post-SSW coldish E’ly IMO…what is it with March being the most wintry month these days?

Edited March 1 by Cheshire Freeze

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM and UKMO are also both cold this morning-

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS shows cold still coming in from the E well into FI

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo fantastic this morning..day 7 chart!

[KTtom]

The models having a final laugh at those of the cold persuasion now. The synoptics which had put the forum in hysteria mode now cropping up, before the SSW! A common theme these last few springs...talking of which, today is the first day of spring and we have big fat flakes of snow falling

[northwestsnow]

Some amazing synoptics on offer this morning.

It's after the Lord Mayor's show for me personally after another wretched winter but I can appreciate beautiful synoptics whenever they arise.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Let's make it clear that a cold and wintry March is still very possible these days...but the set up has to be absolute perfect!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm not quite as good as the rest at 144..but the lows out west are losing strength,undercut looks like trying to happen,I think by 192 we will have a decent easterly set up!let's see..not quite the fireworks of lastnights 12z run..but a trend for something colder from the east continues..hopefully the low will slide through now..and doesn't move north!

Edited March 1 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding