April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* It should be noted though that the ECM's model climatology is based on the last 20 years, and therefore skews higher even than 1991-2020. For 1961-1990 averages, only Tuesday to Friday look like they'll come in below average.

Certainly a fair bit cooler than what we've seen of late though.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday ran into fairly robust records and was below all, next two are a bit easier to crack: 

11 Apr 2024 18.3 _____ 13.3 __________ 8.4

CET records:

11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981)
12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49)
13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)

[Metwatch]

Still difficult to say for sure what the CET may end up as, but a finish below 10C seems quite unlikely and anything below 9.5C virtually no chance. So a good bet right now is in the 10-11C area depending on what the high does later next week. If the more colder but at current least likely GFS run did happen then a finish in the high or maybe mid 9s would indeed be possible.

EWP shouldn't rise too much now as it turns drier, although it won't be completely dry so that will probably head to around 70-80mm towards the end of the month. Another wetter than average month now a given, but not significantly so, maybe a similar depature from average as January was.

First 10 days of this month in the north west of England has been one of the wettest.

Edited April 12 by Metwatch

[Don]

 Metwatch Yes my guess of 9.3C was dead in the water pretty quick! 

[WYorksWeather]

 Metwatch Worth mentioning that there's also the last 5 days or so of April still very much in completely unknown territory. Still time for a second cold push or for the high to move east and drag in something much warmer from the south. Definitely agree that the 10-11C range is the best bet, but I do think that being fair anything 9-12C is also a chance. Outside chance of an unremarkable month by 1991-2020 at one end, or a new record at the other.

[Derecho]

The latest EC control has the CET holding up to 10.3C on the 23rd. Next week looks average at worst and the 21st and 22nd on the control actually return daily means above 10C so not much of a drop in the CET overall to be honest.

Edited April 12 by Derecho

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho Yep, I think next week overall will be below more modern averages, especially ECMs use of a past 20 year average which skews much warmer than 1991-2020 usually, let alone 1961-1990. But compared to 1961-1990, daily returns for next week averaging in the 8C range or thereabouts, pretty much bang average, seems to be a good bet.

[Don]

2024 is significantly ahead of 2023 so far for the CET, so will need a fair few months ahead to be cooler than last year, if it's going to be a sub 11C year!

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather Another problem is you have got warmer then average SSTs around the UK so that is going to moderate cooler airmasses. If we get a retrogressing high to Greenland you might get a few daily CETs in the 4s or 5s but I don't think that will happen.

Remember at the start of April the models were expecting cold at one stage but that remained further north and we ended up with cyclonic SW winds instead.

It wouldn't surprise me if the high ends up closer to the UK tbh

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Remember at the start of April the models were expecting cold at one stage but that remained further north and we ended up with cyclonic SW winds instead.

That seems to have been a key theme so far this year, with most cold spells never quite materialising!

[Derecho]

 Don Yes some cooler weather is certain for next week but milder weather seems to occur far more effortlessly these days. It won't take much for it to return.

[Don]

 Derecho Yes, April 2011 maybe safe, but little to prevent this month from being significantly above average!

[Sun Chaser]

I hope this month doesn't even sniff April 2011 or even 2020/2007 in the CET rankings. Most undeserving month ever. Wherever this "exceptionally mild" start to the month has hit, it hasn't been here! 17 hours of sunshine out of 12 days is not enough for this to be even considered anywhere near the same league. 

To think I thought May 2022 being near the top was undeserving. This is a whole new level!

[summer blizzard]

 Sun Chaser Sadly I think its easier this time of year. April 09 was a cloudy and humid month here. March 17 and 24 were both unexceptionable. All have very warm CET's such that people probably won't question them in a few decades. July 22 is another example, for Yorkshire and Manchester barely more than a 2 day wonder. 

[Summer Sun]

11.4c to the 12th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Don 11.9C is safe. I would bet my mortgage on it. The bigger question is if we are going to finish with 11.1C?

That is the temperature that would beat 2007 to make 2024 the warmest Jan-Apr on record.

Edited April 13 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.2C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[WYorksWeather]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see Depends on the odds. The odds of 2011 being beaten are probably less than 10%. But I don't think they're less than 1%. There are still outlier runs towards the end of the month that would give daily means of 15-17C for several days in a row.

Suppose we reach the 20th at 10.5C running mean (on the warmer side of current estimates, but not insane), then an average of 15C for the last 10 days would get us there. That would probably be nearly unprecedented, but in this day and age I hesitate to put the chance below 1%.

In short, if someone offered me to bet £10 to win £1 that the record isn't broken, I'd take it, maybe even £20 to win £1. But not £100 to win £1.

On your other point about the 11.1C, I think I give that about 1 in 3 odds at the moment. Feeling quite good about my 10.5C actually.

[Shillitocettwo]

What bothers me currently is that the CET is in the 11.something zone in the first half and its not like its even trying particularly for a record....you would expect something spectacularly anticyclonic driven by SE winds for this....when in fact we have had fairly banal weather patterns with the odd Southerly...if it actually tried there is now the potential for absolute destruction of CET monthly and daily records

The only way my original temp prediction is coming off now is Yellowstone to erupt imminently....even then its not a certainty!

[Don]

 Shillitocettwo That's the thing now, synoptics do not have to line up perfectly to achieve well above average temperatures!  I think that whilst the SST's remain as warm as they are, it will be a challenge to get a month below the 1991-2020 average, let alone 1961-90!

Edited April 13 by Don

[Metwatch]

38 minutes ago, Don said:

I think that whilst the SST's remain as warm as they are, it will be a challenge to get a month below the 1991-2020 average, let alone 1961-90!

I'd say a little too much emphasis on SST's as if the pattern was almost non stop northerlies, we would still get a cold or very cold month with warmish sea temps; April 2021 a case in point.

This month has had constant southerlies to southwesterlies so not too surprising the CET is where it's at currently, synoptics matter a lot; nights have been especially been mild for April.

Once we get that pattern change next week with high pressure just to our west, nights should cool down a fair amount and the overall CET back to something closer to average I reckon.

Edited April 13 by Metwatch

[Roger J Smith]

EWP scoring for contest year and April  (based on est 95.0 mm)

In tables below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March.

Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 1.5+5 = 6.5. 

Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [   ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season.

Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 75.0 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each,  so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). 

Using an estimate of 95.0 creates a number of tied errors (e.g. 85mm and 105mm). Rank is currently not indicated as tied, higher forecast is ranked ahead of lower forecast.  At end of scoring, these equal-error situations are ranked as ties, unless one is above and other is below normal which would separate their points totals although not scoring levels. 

<<< TABLE WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED >>>

__ a first version 75.0 mm is now deleted __

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err]

now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo  (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter]

_01 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (01) __ Feb1991blizzard_____10.00 __ 36.22 ______0.0 __ 31.22 mm _ 5 _ (8) ... ...  [9, 9]  ___

_02 _ 02 ___111.0 (28) __ summer18 ___________4.87 __ 34.86 ____ 16.0 __ 29.34 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... ...  [3, 2] ___

_03 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (31) __ Jeff C _________________ 4.30 __ 34.76 _____17.0 __ 33.62 mm _ 7 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] ___

_04 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (05) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.33 ___34.68 _____ 2.0 __ 37.62 mm_ 13_ (26) ... ... [23, 33]  ___

_05 _ 04 ___111.0 (29) __ DR(S)NO _____________4.77 __ 34.13 _____ 16.0 __ 34.62 mm_  8 _ (t9) ... ... [10,15] ___

_06 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (02) __ February1978 ________ 9.81 __ 32.78 ______1.0 __ 35.02 mm_  9 _ (18) ... ... [11, 11] ___

_07 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (41) __ Weather26 ___________ 2.40 __ 32.30 _____28.0 __ 37.70 mm _14 _ (12) ... ... [5,16]  ___

_08 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (35) __ J 10 ___________________3.54 __ 32.13 _____ 20.0 __ 33.34 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] ___

_09 _ 17 ___100.0 (08) __ methuselah __________8.67 __ 31.90 _____ 5.0 __ 39.34 mm _ 22_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] ___

_10 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (18) __ Polar Gael ____________ 6.77 __ 31.67 _____ 9.5 __ 38.54 mm_t18 _(23) ... [25, 31]  ___

(10.5)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 9.81 __ 30.58 _____ 1.5 __ 40.12 mm_23.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5]

_11 _ 14 ___110.0 (26) __ Frigid ________________ 5.43 __ 29.48 _____15.0 __ 28.82 mm _ 1_  (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] ___

_12 _ 19 ___108.0 (23) __Metwatch _____________5.82 __ 28.68 _____13.0 __ 36.74 mm_ 11_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] ___

_13 _ 06 ___130.0 (45) __ Emmett Garland _____1.60 __ 28.67 _____ 35.0 __ 41.22 mm_ 27_ (17) ... ...[17,23] ___   

_14 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (39)__ virtualsphere _________ 2.59 __ 28.11 _____ 25.0 __ 36.54 mm _10 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] ___

_15 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (20) __ dancerwithwings _____ 6.39 __ 27.90 _____11.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_(t39) ... ... [21, 36] ___

_16 _ 08 ___127.0 (43) __ snowray ______________2.00 __ 27.71 _____ 32.0 __37.82 mm _15 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] ___

_17 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (34) __ godber 1 ______________3.82 __ 27.46 _____18.0 __ 37.22 mm _12 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5]  ___

_18 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (04) __ Mulzy _________________ 9.43 __ 26.42 _____ 2.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (47) ... ... [32, t46] ___  

_19 _ 23 ___110.0 (27) __ jonboy _______________ 5.33 __ 26.27 _____15.0 __ 43.34 mm_ 34 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] ___

_20 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (07) __ rwtwm _________________8.86 __ 25.98 ______4.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] ___        

_21 _ 15 ___125.0 (42)^__ Don _________________ 1.90^__25.84 _____ 30.0 __ 38.22 mm _16_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] ___

_22 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (51) __stewfox  _______________ 0.40 __ 25.46 _____50.0 __ 38.38 mm _17 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] ___

_23 _ 26 ___110.0 (25) __ WYorksWeather ______5.53 __ 25.45 _____ 15.0 __ 43.46 mm_ 35 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] ___

_24 _ 31 ___104.0 (17) __ Stationary Front ______6.96 ___25.29 _____ 9.0 __ 46.42 mm_ 56 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61]  ___

_25 _ 27 ___110.0 (24) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _____5.63 __ 25.14 _____15.0 __ 38.54 mm _t18_ (20) ... .. [40, t26]  ___

_26 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (13) __ weatherforducks ______7.90 ___24.93 _____ 5.0 __ 40.62 mm_ 25 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] ___

(26.1)_(16.4)_59.2 (46.1)__1994-2023 average__1.38 ___24.87_____35.8 __42.70 mm _30.9_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] __

_27 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(6.5) __ 30.72 mm _ 4 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] ___

(27.7)(20.4)_ 63.2 (42.9)__1991-2020 average__ 2.02 _ 23.97 ____31.8 __ 43.46 mm_ 36.0 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] __

_28 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (37) __ Reef ___________________ 3.16 __ 23.78 ____21.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] ___

_29 _ 20 ___133.0 (48)__I remember Atlantic252__ 1.00 __ 23.77 ____38.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] ___      

(29.9)(21.2) _64.8 (42.1) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.18__ 23.40 ____30.2 __ 44.58 mm_44.3_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8]    

_30 _ 29 ___112.0 (30) __chilly milly ______________ 4.49 __ 23.34 ____ 17.0 __ 38.62 mm_20_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] ___

_31 _ 28 ___113.0 (32) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 4.09 __ 23.29 _____18.0 __ 43.82 mm_ t40_(34) ... ... [37, 41] ___

_32 _ 37 ___107.0 (21)^__seaside60 _____________ 5.90^__21.90 _____12.0 __ 45.42 mm _ 49_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54] 

_33 _ 22 ___135.0 (49) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.80 __ 21.55 _____40.0 __ 42.22 mm_ 30_ (16) ... ... [30,t20]  ___

_34 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (16)^__davehsug ______________ 6.85^__ 21.47 _____ 8.0 __ 46.22 mm_ 55_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] ___

_35 _ 32 ___115.7 (36) __ Roger J Smith __________3.35 __ 20.91 ____ 20.7 __ 43.22 mm_  32 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] ___

_36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(6.5)__ 43.52 mm_ 36 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] ___

_37 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 _____ 6.0 __ 51.42 mm_ 67 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] ___

_38 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(6.5) __ 30.52 mm _ 3 _  (t4) ... ... [45, 10] ___

_39 _ 48 ___100.0 (10) __ syed2878 ______________ 8.47 __18.34 ______ 5.0 __ 60.22 mm_ 76 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] ___

_40 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (40) __ The PIT _________________2.49 __ 18.07 _____25.0 __ 52.22 mm_ 68_  (62) ... ... [27, t48] ___

_41 _ 49 ___100.0 (09) __ Leo97t _________________ 8.57 __18.01 _____ 5.0 __ 55.22 mm _ 72 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] ___

_42 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (50) ___ summer blizzard ______0.64 __ 17.58 _____ 42.0 __ 53.02 mm _ 69_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] ___

_43 _ 39 ___130.0 (46) __summer8906 ___________1.50 __16.13 _____ 35.0 __ 48.82 mm_ 63 _(t39) ... [41, 37] ___

(43.8)(40.5)_58.4 (46.9) __average of all data ____ 1.22 __ 15.65 _____36.6 __ 51.22 mm _66.8_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _

_44 _ 41 ___131.8 (47) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 1.20 __15.42 _____ 36.8 __ 44.90 mm _48 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] ___

_45 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 ______ 6.0 __ 55.54 mm_ 73 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69]  ___

_46 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (44) __ Bobd29 ________________ 1.79 __13.47 _____ 34.9 __ 56.38 mm _74 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] ___

_47 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____ (6.5) __ 40.64 mm _ 26_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] ___

_48 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (6.5) __ 40.12 mm_ 23 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] ___

_49 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (19) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 6.58 __12.88 ____ 10.0 __ 43.82 mm_t40 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] ___

_50 _(50) __120.0 (38) _ B87 _____________________ 2.97 __ 12.37 _____25.0 __ 40.60 mm_ 24 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) ___

_51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover __ --- --- __ 12.30 ____ (6.5) __ 38.92 mm _21 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] ___

_52 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (22) __ summer shower ________6.01 __12.26 _____12.0 __ 62.98 mm_ 77 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] ___

_53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(6.5) __ 48.12 mm_ 62 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] ___

_54 _(---) ___ 96.5 (03) __ Thomas Green __________ 9.61 __ 9.61 ____ 1.5 __  43.30 mm _ 33 _ (---) ... ... first entry ___  

_55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(6.5) __ 41.32 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [46, 28] ___

_56 _(---) ___ 92.0 (06) __ Pulpstar _________________ 9.05 __ 9.05 _____3.0 __ 43.60 mm _ 39_ (---) ... ... first entry ___

_57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __  John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____ (6.5) __ 45.92 mm _t53 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] ___   

_58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (12) __ sunny_vale ________________8.00 __8.24 _____ 5.0 __ 47.80 mm_ 61_ (60)  _ ... ... ( -- -- ) ___

_59 _(---) ___ 90.0 (11) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 8.10 __ 8.10 _____ 5.0 __ 44.00 mm _ 42_ (---) ... ... first entry ____     

_60 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____ (6.5) __ 42.72 mm_ 31 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32]  ___

_61 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (33)  __ Neil N __________________ 3.92 __ 6.51 _____ 18.0 __ 66.62 mm _78 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] ___

_62 _ 62 __ 40.0 (52) __ shillitocettwo _____________0.20 __ 5.44 _____55.0 __ 69.50 mm _79 _(72) ... ... [64, 71] ___

_63 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (6.5) __ 41.92 mm_ 29_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] ___

_64 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(6.5) __ 50.66 mm_ 66_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] ___

_65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(6.5) __ 44.44 mm_ 47 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40]        

_66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(6.5) __ 44.32 mm_ 46 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39]      

_67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(6.5) __ 48.92 mm _ 64 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] ___

_68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(6.5) __ 59.12 mm_ 75 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] ___

_69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(6.5) __ 45.44 mm_ 50_ (48)  ... ... [60, 44] ___

_70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(6.5) __ 45.92 mm_t53_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] ___

_71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(6.5) __ 45.52 mm_ 51_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] ___

_72 _ 67  __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(6.5) __ 45.76 mm _ 52_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] ___

_73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (6.5) __ 46.92 mm_ 57 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] ___

_74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 _____(6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

_77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(6.5) __ 54.32 mm_ 70 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] ___

_78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (6.5) __ 49.46 mm_ 65_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] ___

_79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 58.0 __ 54.60 mm_ 71_ (---)  _ first entry ... ___

-------------------

 

Edited April 26 by Roger J Smith
eliminated 75 mm option

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.3C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall 50.1mm 89.3% of average.

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 13th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer18]

It’s been the worst January - April I can remember weather wise. For this month to claim some sort of warmth record would be insane, it’s been dire!