April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Daniel*]

Today looks coolest day in CET area not in north of it though, chilly night and daytime temps looking more suppressed than expected.

E.g. Rothamsted 0.7C low… 10.1C high… 5.4

[Derecho]

 Daniel* Yup I'd expect todays CET to come in at around 5.9C (due to minima at Stonyhurst being a bit higher from what I can see of the hourly obs).

Edited April 25 by Derecho

[Frigid]

On 24/04/2024 at 15:01, Derecho said:

We are looking at 9.4C to finish the month

Yes, my prediction is looking better by the day. Though I went a bit too overboard for rainfall. This cool spell has gone on for longer than expected, and doesn't look all that mild until the beginning of May. 

Edited April 25 by Frigid

[damianslaw]

Turning into a notably cool spell, and we could end below 9.5 degrees.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.0C +0.6C above average. Rainfall up to 74.1mm 132.1% of the monthly average.

Looking like we will get an average month now in regards to temperatures if the afternoon run is correct. 

[damianslaw]

Will be interesting comparing the 1-14 CET and the 15-30 CET.

The last couple of days will bring a warm up, but certainly the 15-28 mean will be comparably below the 1-14 mean. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So if Derecho's projected CET values come to fruition, the 2nd half of April (7.7C) will come in below the April 1961-90 average (7.9C).

It feels more like February just gone than April and we are heading into the final month of spring next week..

I'm starting to think I overcooked my estimate of 9.6C.  10 days ago I thought the opposite. What a contrast!

Edited April 25 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[damianslaw]

Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins.

A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 24th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Eskimo]

 Summer Sun jesus, this month has felt miserable...61-90 must have felt awful!

[Derecho]

 damianslaw Yesterday came in quite a bit milder then I was expecting at 6.7C. Perhaps they give more weight to Stonyhurst. My calculation was based on hourly obs so there may have been a higher max at one of the sites between the hourly obs.

Stonyhurst managed an air frost last night. Pershore College wasn't far off, though Rothamstad was less cold according to the hourly obs.

Expect a CET of around 6.0C today.

[Don]

 Derecho mid to upper 9's the likely landing point now, with the final days of the month milder?

Edited April 26 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Just popping in, today's CET report by the way should be 9.8 to 25th (not 24th) ...

EWP est 72 mm (was 68 to 24th) ... GFS current final value at least 95 mm as in our provisional scoring table (option 2 previously, I deleted option 1). Could nudge 100 or even 105. Will update around 2nd.

Back to vacation, popping in again on 30 April I hope. 

[Roger J Smith]

That scoring table was posted 13 April and is around page 8 of thread ... will of course move it (adjusted) to current discussion at end of April ... Feb1991blizzard at 95.0 mm for April would take top score and also be in first place in annual just ahead of summer 18. Looks like I will be going on a non-scheduled storm chase, we have been in Las Vegas NV since Tuesday, sunny and around 30 C each day here, going for that again today but we are now leaving LV and driving n.e. into the Utah scenic portion of our planned trip and will be driving through a cold front around late afternoon east of St George UT so I hope to get some storm pics with scenic backdrops later on. Except for this passing front our 12 days down here look dry as a bone and it will gradually warm up again after this frontal passage gives us one rather cool day on Saturday (expecting 15-18 C where we will be going).  It was a relatively wet winter and we are seeing a lot of cactus flowers as well as wildflowers in desert areas, very fortunate timing. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 8.9C +0.4C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Don]

Despite the much cooler/colder 2nd half of the month, it's not been enough to offset the warm 1st half and will still exceed all recent averages, significantly so the 61-90.

[damianslaw]

Probably be on 9.6 degrees for 26th, 9.5 or 9.4 degrees 27th, then a hold 28th, and possible 0.1-0.2 rise 29th and 30th. Finish likely 9.5 to 9.6 degrees I feel, outside chance 9.4 or 9.7. 

[WYorksWeather]

Key is going to be I think how warm we go on the 29th-30th. Latest UKV has a spot 20C in the SW not far from Pershore on the 30th with widely double digit minima almost everywhere, so could even be close to 14-15C daily CET for that day, which probably guarantees a 0.2C rise. I would probably err more towards 9.6C or 9.7C.

[Don]

2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I would probably err more towards 9.6C or 9.7C

No doubt I will get stick for saying this, but yet another above average month!  However, nowhere near as mild/warm as it was looking to be earlier on in the month.

Edited April 26 by Don

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 25th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield don to 8.8C +0.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun As expected another 0.2 degree drop, probably fall by another 0.1 or 0.2 degrees todays readings, then a hold tomorrow thanks to milder minima. 

[Shillitocettwo]

 Eskimo

 

  Ive been having the same thoughts.... Although this last 6 days has felt shockingly bad for late April, to a significant extent this is due to the 30 year averages creeping ever higher..... although these days I think when we get a cold or hot spell it persists longer now due to the blocking patterns in the jet stream exacerbated by a declining pole to tropic temp gradient

[Shillitocettwo]

 Don

 

  The abnormally warm start has beaten the cold spell now. Its like an FA cup tie between the Premiership side Climate Change vs the League 2 side below average temp synoptics, increasingly it requires a proper run of Northerlies and an absence of milder directions to even challenge a below average month (by any 30 year period) these days

[seabreeze86]

Wow I thought the CET would be below average haven’t checked all month. Been well below average up here recently struggling to get to 10 Celsius for the last couple of weeks and had some cold nights even some patchy frosts on the coast which we struggle to get in mid winter some years