April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

April CET statistics 

__ the most recent 43 values are shown in three groups (14,14,15) -- bold warmest, italic medium values, underlined coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics. All data now v2.0.1.0 CET. 

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

11.9 ... warmest April (2011)

11.3 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)

10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)

10.5 ... tied 4th warmest April (2020) and 1943 (5th in 2 decimals)

10.3 ... t6th warmest Aprils (tied 1798, 1893, 1987, 2014) (order 6, 8, 9, 7 in two decimals)

10.2 ... t10th warmest 1794, 1796, 1944 (order 12, 11, 10 in two decimals)

10.1 ... t13th warmest 1783, 1869, 1945 (order 15, 13, 14 in two decimals)

10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009) which is 16th in two decimals

 9.9 ... 2018

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.5 ... 1999

 9.4 ... 1993, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.2 ... 2019, 2022

 9.1 ... 1995, 2015

 9.0 ... average for 1991-2020 (8.96) ...1997, 2017 ... also average 2001-2023 (9.03).

 ... ... also mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) ... 1991-2020 is also highest 30-year average

 8.9 ...  2005, 2010  and average for 1994-2023 

 8.7 ... 1992, 2006, 2023

 8.6 ... 1982

 8.5 ... 1996 ...  average for 1981-2010 

 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... 1984 ... and average for 1971-2000 (8.06) (and 20th century 1901-2000) (8.05)

 8.0 ... 1990, 1994, 2008 ... also average for all data 1659-2023 (7.954)  

 7.9 ... 1991 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 (7.907) and 19th century 1801-1900 (7.947)

 7.8 ... 1981

 7.7 ... 1998, 2000, 2001 

 7.6 ... 2013

 7.5 ... 2016 

 7.3 ... 2012 ... and average for 1659-1700

 7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702)

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 6.5 ... 2021 tied 40th coldest (placed 49th in two decimals), and second coldest since 1941 (6.4)

 5.8 ... 1986 tied 18th coldest and coldest since 1922

 5.7 ... 16th coldest (tied) 1784 and 1879

 5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years (1922 placed coldest of them at 9th in two decimals)

 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799

 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809

 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)

--0.4 ... coldest April daily mean since 1799 (2nd 1917)

--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (3rd, 1799) 

_________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2024 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Sunday 31st March)

... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

EWP contest for April 2024

The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2023.

Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2023 

142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

 64.8 __ average 1981-2010

 63.2 __ average 1991-2020

 59.2 __ average 1994-2023

 58.4 __ average all data 1766 to 2023

 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2023 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2023 

 

recent April EWP values ...

2023_76.8 mm, 2022_31.0 mm, 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,

2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

Good luck!!

Edited March 19 by Roger J Smith

[Dancerwithwings]

9.3c & 84mm cheers

[B87]

7.9c and 120mm please. Cold and wet

Edited March 19 by B87

[Addicks Fan 1981]

8.9 as things stand with 110 mm of rain.   

[Typhoon John]

10.1c please

[WYorksWeather]

Far too early for a guess in my view, but as usual, my graphical representation of the CET data, and with thanks to Roger as usual for the thread and info in the main post.

As usual, the cyan line is the 10-year average, and the darker blue line is the 30-year average. The points denote actual observations, and the lines indicate the averages ending in that year (e.g. the 2000 average is 1991-2000 for the 10-year, and 1971-2000 for the 30-year).

Hard to know what to make of the 10-year and 30-year patterns - it almost looks like there is some sort of sinusoidal pattern, with a superimposed warming trend visible since the latter part of the 20th century. The sinusoidal bit could have a physical reason, but it could also just be noise. Interesting nonetheless I think to see it in chart form.

The latest 10-year average is 9.0C to one decimal (2014-2023), and the highest ever such average was the 2002-2011 average at 9.6C.

Key questions are whether we're overdue another way above average April in the 11C range or higher, or whether we'll buck the trend entirely and see our first sub-6C April of the century. I wonder if anyone will be brave enough to take a punt on either of those options?

Food for thought anyway.

 

 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

April in the 11C range or higher, or whether we'll buck the trend entirely and see our first sub-6C April of the century. I wonder if anyone will be brave enough to take a punt on either of those options?

Erm, definitely not the later from me!

[Shillitocettwo]

  I'm thinking this April will undercut February with a chilly 7.4.C (well near 1960-1990 average but first below it in many months.) Expect a 'stuttery stally Spring' with a number of frosts, snow and a feel more like Winter than any of the actual Winter months just gone. Drier thankfully at 40mm.

[Thomas Green]

7.9C and 96.5 mm, starting cold and very wet looking like a record breaker in terms of rain for the first week or 2 of April with some winteryness but then the second half turning drier and temperatures back to average, not expecting any remotely warm weather in April.

[Bobd29]

 Roger J Smith 60.1C and 9.1mm for me please.

Let’s transpose that: amend to 9.1C and 60.1mm .

[Methuselah]

10.4C and 100mm please, Roger.

[Summer18]

8.6C and 111mm 

[summer blizzard]

9.2C, 53mm.

Relatively settled compared to recent months with a -AO and the UK seeing somewhat transient ridges between slow moving Atlantic and Scandinavian Lows. 

[virtualsphere]

9.5C and 70mm please.

[JeffC]

8.1C and 78 mm please

[stewfox]

9.7c 45mm

[SummerShower]

Wouldn't it be good if February March and April ALL had the same CET?

Let's go 7.8 with 83mm.  Settled and unsettled periods alternating.

[Don]

 SummerShower that's a realistic possibility and would certainly be unique!

[Weather26]

9.7C and 67mm please

[chilly milly]

7.2c and 112mm please

[Leo97t]

7.5c and 100mm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8.1C, 133mm

[BlueHedgehog074]

8.5*C and 90mm, please. Likely cool and wet at the start (perhaps with something wintry), but am hoping High Pressure will eventually give the Atlantic Lows a good pounding and bring a long spell of drier, warmer weather. Also with just the odd monstrous thunderstorm thrown in. 

[rwtwm]

Mild and damp continues. 

9.3c & 91 mm please

[Roger J Smith]

April is rarely colder than (or equal to) its preceding February, the only cases are shown below (with their March values) ...

YEAR __ FEB _ MAR _ APR ___ range of values Feb-Apr

1702 __ 6.7 _ 5.8 _ 5.8 __________ 0.9 (7th closest set)

(1713 _ 5.5 _ 4.5 _ 5.5) __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)

1739 __ 6.8 _ 5.8 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)

(1743 _ 5.4 _ 5.3 _ 5.4) _______ 0.1 (closest to all three values same)

1790 __ 6.6 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _________ 0.5 (2nd closest set, only one to include two decreases)

1809 __ 5.7 _ 6.0 _ 5.2 __________ 0.8 (6th closest set)

(1837 _ 4.7 _ 2.3 _ 4.7) ________________ 2.4

1903 __ 7.1 _ 7.1 _ 6.4 __________0.7 (t-4 closest set)

 

These also contain the two closest sets of Feb-Mar-Apr values by total range, cases that are also close (all within 1.0) but with APR above FEB are

1849 __ 5.7 _ 6.1 _ 6.4 _________ 0.7  (t-4 closest set)

1918 __ 6.5 _ 5.7 _ 6.7 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)

1990 __ 7.3 _ 8.3 _ 8.0 __________ 1.0 (t8 closest set)

1998 __ 7.2 _ 7.8 _ 7.7 _________ 0.6 (3rd closest set)

These two lists then supply the full set of eleven three-month cases all within 1.0 C. 

All but one of the eight April-colder-or-equal cases joined that list. 

Edited March 30 by Roger J Smith