April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[LetItSnow!]

May edit this closer to the time if any changes show up in the models but I'll enter with 9.4C and 135mm.

I think the very unsettled weather will prevail through a lot of the month but I would be surprised if we don't tap into some warm or very warm air at some point during the month and I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere exceeds 25C this month. I would go warmer but I feel like exceptionally warm and exceptionally wet isn't very common in April so I'll be rather tame with the warmth. There is a plume of it to our south and I think even if we avoid it there'll be quite mild nights a lot.

Edited March 27 by LetItSnow!

[emmett garland]

9.9 and 130mm please Roger after the last few months that's got to be worth a chance 

[Shillitocettwo]

  Has there ever been a successive descendency of temperatures Feb, Mar then April? Actually think this year might manage it!

And has this ever happened?

[LetItSnow!]

 Shillitocettwo I'm not actually sure this might happen since if the winds do turn south-westerly then even if the days are relatively unexceptional, the nights will probably be quite mild + April is a rapidly warming month, though you can't rule out a very cold spell at some point and very mild winters do have a tendency to save their last laugh for April; see 2016, 1998, 1989 for example. I actually even saw heavy snow in April 2019 (and May) locally after that warm February.

[Relativistic]

Weather history pointed out in 2016 that El Nino years often feature April cold shots. Such an event did of course transpire in 2016 and led to a chilly CET of 7.5C -- colder than February of this year.

[MattStoke]

10.3'C and 85mm.

[WYorksWeather]

Going with 10.4C and 110mm.

An exceptionally wet first third or even half of the month and slightly milder than average, but with a much warmer and sunnier spell later on. Still coming out well above average on rainfall though as the first few days looks like an absolute deluge.

I'll come back and change this if there's any signal for the wet weather to decline after the first week - if not it looks like it'll continue at least two and hence I'll stick with this prediction.

[Roger J Smith]

Shil, scroll back to my previous post yesterday, a successive drop Feb to Apr has happened just once, in 1790. Otherwise, only a handful of Aprils colder than February. But I don't see how it can happen now to get march colder than Feb, even equal looks dubious. Quite a few Aprils have been colder than preceding march. 

[Frigid]

Part of me thinks this month will break the long stretch of exceptionally mild months, but the current model output says otherwise. 

Just to be safe, I'll go slightly above average.

9.4C and 110mm. Thanks

[NeilN]

7.8c and 77mm - the wetness carries on and on....

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I'm upping my guess to 10.2 on this.    

[Met.]

7.1°C, 153mm, super record cold and super record flooding.

[Don]

17 hours ago, Frigid said:

Just to be safe, I'll go slightly above average.

9.4C and 110mm. Thanks

Slightly above average.  You're correct of course going by the 91-20 average, but 9.4C would be 1.5C above the 61-90 average!  Stating the obvious I know, but just goes to show how much and how rapidly the climate is changing!

[Pulpstar]

9.2 C and 92 mm 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'm going with 9.6C.

That would mean Jan -Apr 2024 would become the second warmest opening 4 months to a year, behind only 2007.

[Summer8906]

8.5 and 130.

A horrific first week, which will contribute about half the total on its own. Perhaps 300% of the normal for the first week of April.

Second week could go either way though probably slightly wetter than normal, say 110% of the normal for the second week.

I'm assuming (hoping!) that the second half of the month will be slightly drier than normal otherwise I'd go even higher. The first half of the month to be the wettest first half on record.

Temps bang on average for 1981-2010, with cool days and mild nights, particularly at first though second half might provide warmer days and cooler nights. I can't see any mild/warm days in the first half as even when the wind is from a mild direction, it will be very cloudy; from April onwards warm daytime temps usually require sunshine and light winds. A lot of days around the 10-13 mark in the first half (i.e. much like Nov, Dec, Feb, March...)

Absolute max around 22 due to settled weather late in the month. The same spell which provides the 22C max will also provide the month's only sub-zero minima.

(Incidentally I've never known so much of a sense of despondency about a month before it's even begun!)

Edited March 29 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see What I think is a practical certainty is that we'll have the wettest first 4 months of the year on record. Even a dry 2nd half of April won't save us from that, I suspect.

[snowray]

9.8c and 127mm please. Mild, cloudy and wet.

[Polar Gael]

10.5°C and 85.5mm for me please.

Crud start, improving gradually. 

 

[Summer Sun]

10.1c for me please

[sunny_vale]

10.6c and 90mm please 

[The PIT]

Going for 8C and 70mm of rain.

[jonboy]

9.0 and 110mm

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Summer8906 It's looking like a rainy April (first half).  If this pattern continues into the 2nd half too, the record will be smashed.

[Summer8906]

Interesting a lot of people are going for above average CET, which is rare for wet weather this time of year. AFAIK, all other recent notably wet Aprils have also been below-average by CET.

Even if there are mild nights, I suspect that high cloud amounts would restrict daytime temps to the 10-14 range, so a degree or two below normal.

Edited March 29 by Summer8906