April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.9C +2.8C above average. Rainfall 35.5mm 63.3% of the monthly average.

The CET zone seems to be too warm. Normally a 0.8C difference between us not 1.6C.

[damianslaw]

Certainly a notably mild start, but also wet and rather dull. The theme of very wet very mild and very dull months continues it seems, though April is rarely very wet with exception 2012... and there are signs the second half of the month could be a lot drier than the first half, if high pressure does come on the scene depending on location, it may well bring much cooler minima something that has eluded the UK for 3 months.

It does feel since the 19th Jan by and large we've seen the weather behave akin to a long broken record, one featuring a stubborn trough trapping mild moist air, its been thoroughly miserable. 

[Summer8906]

Looking likely (well hopefully) I over-did my rainfall estimate though I'd guess that due to the very wet start it will still end up wetter than average overall.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP already near 40 mm and suggestions of a similar amount to be added by near end of April, some previous runs were drier (and warmer) than today's run.

No new records on Sunday, min of 8.8 was a bit below and other two values (12.1, 15.5) were further below.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

11.6 to the 8th 

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 8th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.2C +3.1C above average. Rainfall 42.6mm 75.9% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

That 11.6 after eight days is now third highest running CET, only lower than 12.0 in 1926 and 11.7 in 2011, fourth place now goes to 1999 at 11.3 ... 2011 takes over the lead from 9th with a tie (1778) on 13 April and a couple of interruptions by 1945 around 18th to 20th. At this point it looks like 2024 could hang around the lead for a while but will eventually fall back into the 10s after possibly reaching 12 C by Friday or Saturday. 2011 only reached 12.0 for running CET values on 24th and 25th. 1945 got close in its brief flare up. 

Edited April 9 by Roger J Smith

[LetItSnow!]

Interesting question is where we go after the northwesterlies. A sustained cool(er) spell thereafter could give us a mild but mostly unexceptional CET in the 9s perhaps but another flare up could send us marching back to the 11s. Quite exciting. 

[Pulpstar]

Above 8 Celsius average now btw (For the year) - the earliest this has ever been achieved.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 9th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 9.9C +2.7C above average. Rainfall up to 45.8mm 81.6% of the monthly average.

[Derecho]

Evening all. Based on the EC 12z control we have a mild 3 days coming up which should lift the CET up to an impressive 11.6C after that. The northerly early next week is toned down here though the op and control are on the milder side of things. CET returns are still slightly above average but we don't get anything impressive after that.

High pressure looks set to build later next week but at the moment it looks like we will get increased diurnal temperature ranges which as it stands look to stop high CET returns.

Expect the CET to be around the high 10s though as we head into the last third of April. I don't think we'll beat 2011 but something above 11C is possible.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I'll take a 10.5C CET finish, if it means drier..

 

[Metwatch]

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 10th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

I don't think we'll be anywhere near 11C if the GEFS 6z is anything to go by. Could be a cool, anticyclonic second half.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.7C +2.4C above average. Rainfall 48.5mm 86.5% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

It does look like an extended period of near average temperatures to come, which will of course lead to a fair drop. Beyond the 20th or so is tricky to predict. A lot depends on the orientation of any further high pressure signals at this time of year.

My personal view is that guesses in the 9s and 10s are best placed at the moment. There seems to be no quick route away from a high to our west, which will probably mean maxima in the low teens and minima in mid single figures, with a mean flow from between W and NE.

However, the last week to ten days are still well beyond the reliable, so it remains possible that we get either a more notable cold spell, or a renewed Azores high forcing that leads to some very warm weather.

Edited April 11 by WYorksWeather

[The PIT]

I wouldn't put too much faith in the projection of cooler weather this has come a lot over the last few months and then quickly disappeared into more prolonged mild weather. If  a cool spell comes off the milder spell that followed as strong enough to offset easily.

[Derecho]

The 00z EC control did come in colder this morning but its also on the colder side of the mean. Early to mid 10s would be a good looking estimate at this early stage.

[Daniel*]

52 minutes ago, The PIT said:

wouldn't put too much faith in the projection of cooler weather this has come a lot over the last few months and then quickly disappeared into more prolonged mild weather. If  a cool spell comes off the milder spell that followed as strong enough to offset easily.

nonsense this benign/cooler spell is confirmed beginning shortly. Not unusual for April.

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 11th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Are we going to see a classic flip month - first half exceptionally mild, second half average or indeed a bit below.. we shall see. Remember we managed a 2 week slightly colder than average spell 5-19 Jan, more so in the north bookended by notable mild. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 9.8C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 48.6mm 86.6% of the monthly average.