April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw I suppose another point is when was the last time we had half a month that was below average on 1961-1990, if we split each month in two. First half of January this year misses out by a very small margin, and of course the second half was above average.

Before that, July 2023 was a very balanced month but the second half was slightly cooler and might have been just below average, but it's within 0.1C.

Looking further back, the last half of a month as far as I can see to be significantly below the 1961-1990 average would be the first half of March 2023, which was 1.4C below 1961-1990 to the 15th, and 1.2C below to the 16th.

Absolutely bonkers really that we've managed to go that long without even a half month notably below 1961-1990, let alone a full month.

[Summer Sun]

10.3c to the 21st

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

 damianslaw I know but it's more sad that April isn't as warm anymore like it used to be, i don't see anything that will take us back to the 00's aprils.

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, Dare i watch the GFS 06Z said:

 I know but it's more sad that April isn't as warm anymore like it used to be, i don't see anything that will take us back to the 00's aprils.

I don't know how you can conclude that from the graph you posted before?

2011, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020 all appear to be just as warm as the warm April's in the 2000s with 2011 record breaking.

Looks like the 30 year running mean(?) is almost at an all time high. You aren't going to get warmer April's with every single passing year. There will be variability.

Climate change means I'm pretty sure you'll see those kind of April's more regularly unless atmospheric circulation fundamentally changes.

Edited April 22 by Derecho

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

 Derecho Still the 10-year average is going down  which is quite telling and it's not only april also may had a peak just a decade ago, july must be the most shocking one with no trend at all since the early 00's which anyone can see on this graph

 

atmospheric circulation has already changed for Sweden only winds from the north and east last couple of years, the rest of the world may continue to warm but not this part of the world.

[Derecho]

 Dare i watch the GFS 06Z 10 years is too short to define a climate, you need at least 30 for it to be statistically meaningful. If you took the 2001-2010 average for December in the CET series, it only came out at 4.0C, nearly a degree lower then the 1971-2000 average.

Yet 2011-2020 had an average CET of 6.0C for December, 2 degrees warmer then the decade prior...

The longer term means, including the ones you have posted for Sweden are heading upwards...

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.3C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall 69.9mm 124.6% of average.

Could end up being average temperature wise which is quite a feat considering how far above we were.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho wonder if the SSW we have had has scuppered our chances of a record breaking warm april? Whar we are having currently is troposphere effects of it.     

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

 Derecho Then you obviously can't read the graphs it's trending downwards and the peaks have already occurred, the black line should go slowly upwards not stabilize or go down.

[Derecho]

15 minutes ago, Dare i watch the GFS 06Z said:

Then you obviously can't read the graphs

I'm very capable of reading graphs thank you and my comment still stands. The solid black line is only a 10 year running mean and is too short. The dashed line is a more appropriate long term average that is still increasing on almost all the graphs you posted.

Edited April 22 by Derecho

[Dare i watch the GFS 06Z]

 Derecho Nice straw-man argument i have never even mentioned that the global average temperature hasn't increased i have always talked about single months and season, single months and seasons can and will still cool in places despite a general increase in global average temperatures.

[Derecho]

 Dare i watch the GFS 06Z Fair enough, it wasn't a straw man argument however, it was just based on logic and what the graphs show. I agree that we can still see cooler weather in a warming climate, I don't think anyone can argue that.

Though all we know at this stage is that global temperatures will increase (barring a big volcanic eruption) but atmospheric circulation determines how that extra heat is distributed. What that means locally I wouldn't want to guess. You could see 10 years of very warm April's in Sweden the next 10 years, maybe not. The long term means however will paint the best picture for changes and global temperatures will very likely carry on increasing regardless.

What we are seeing is more frequent warmer extremes and shorter cooler / cold episodes. These can still be extreme as March 2018 shows but will be compensated by greater warmer extremes elsewhere. The ease of tapping into very warm airmasses is what is making colder then average months harder to come by these days but April 2021 shows it's still possible.

[Derecho]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Easterly winds are most frequent during April and May so it's hard to distinguish whether an SSW is responsible here

[Summer Sun]

10.1c to the 22nd

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.2C +1.0C above average. Rainfall up 74mm 131.9% of the monthly average.

[Don]

Mid 9's the likely final CET for the month?

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 23rd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

 Don We are looking at 9.4C to finish the month

So that would bring the CET for the second half of April to 7.7C. The chilly uppers are hanging on longer then expected with winds very slack later this week allowing for chillier nights.

If this came off, the CET for the second half of April will be colder then the first half of February....

Also I wonder how many Aprils have recorded their coldest running mean on the 30th? Odd for a month that typically warms as it progresses. It really has felt like a backwards April and a poor one...

Edited April 24 by Derecho

[Metwatch]

I feel a 9.5 or even 9.6C finish is possible as the last 2-3 days will see a slight warmup. Given that I'd say the 3 entries highlighted below will have best combined as the EWP is looking to finish somewhere in the 85-95mm area with another dumping of rain forecast this weekend. The three 9.4C entries have all gone for an EWP of 110mm or higher. Pretty happy with my entry as well although have overestimated the rainfall a bit, that is the first time I have done so after underguessing many months.

 

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

It would be quite interesting to plot 2 graphs, one for daily CET values, and the other for the running mean to better see a neat observed cooldown from mid month.

Edited April 24 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

 Metwatch My 9.6 looks not far off, first time in ages I might be at least 0.5 degrees within final figure. Certainly a contrasting month CET wise.

[WYorksWeather]

Yep, definitely quite a big fall. The main reason being the persistence of the pattern rather than anything spectacularly cold, like a genuine late snowfall or something. But a very different feeling month to what it could have been - if the pattern from the first half had persisted instead it could have been near record territory.

Still won't be too horrendously off with my 10.4C, I guess. Glad I didn't go too absurd with the mildness. 110mm for rainfall is also slightly overdone but again, not dreadful.

Still need to decide on my May forecast...

[Dancerwithwings]

I must admit my 9.3c mid month was looking miserable, but if now I’m at a 0.1 or 0.2 away….Ill be over the moon

[Don]

7 hours ago, Derecho said:

We are looking at 9.4C to finish the month

Excellent as that would mean I will only be 0.1C out with my guess.  Earlier in the month, it was looking like I could be amiss by as much as 2C!

Edited April 24 by Don

[snowray]

Looks like I could be too high even at 9.8c then? What a turn around.

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 24th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average