April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[rwtwm]

There was a real cluster of forecasts around the consensus this month. And the consensus was a really impressive guess! (Well done everyone)

That means that despite a good (for me) delta with the real value, I'm quite a way down the CET table!

Edited May 1 by rwtwm

[Frigid]

 rwtwm A similar thing happened in Dec 2022 IIRC.

At 9.4C I was 0.2 away, not bad tbh. Well done to those who got it spot on. 

[Pulpstar]

England, Wales HADCET data:

I make it the wettest first 4 months of the year since records began (Beating the previous wettest of 2014)

 

&

 

Despite the recent cool(ish) snap the second warmest since records began, only 2007 ahead at this point.

 

Running average 12 month temp I have at 11.32C and 1319.73 mm of rainfall which although both are historically high aren't record breaking.

 

We need *chortle* 80 mm of rainfall in May (Possible I guess) and an unlikely 17.2C average to break through the running highs respectively.

Edited May 1 by Pulpstar

[Roger J Smith]

Will edit table of CET rankings later (to 9.6 result), on road at present ... will look at EWP final tracker value also on 2nd. 

[damianslaw]

Yes I predicted spot on! 9.6 degrees.

[Don]

At 9.3C, I was only 0.3C out, so not a bad guess in the end.  Glad I didn't revise it at the beginning of the month when I thought I may have gone way too low!

[The PIT]

No comment on mine guess.

Sunny Sheffield finished on 8.7C 0.1C below our 1991 - 2020 average. Rainfall 84.5mm 150.6% of average. So we are well ahead of last years rainfall at the same point in time. Gap will probably close so far we never had two years on the bounce with 1000mm plus so if that holds true some dry weather should be on the way at some point.

 

[kold weather]

Well another month to add to the above 61-90 average. Takes us to 16 consecutive months above that normal...

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended up at 94.7 mm for month, would result in different scoring ranks for tied values using 95.0, but as we will get another possibly different final value on 5th, will provide final EWP scoring update then. CET scoring in table posted previously has been adjusted for 9.6 now. 

[Metwatch]

Thought it would be interesting to see this month of two halves on a graph.

The daily CET compared with running mean and the 1991-2020 running mean average. The second half averaged 7.9C!

Same graph but added on the 1991-2020 average running mean.

 

Edited May 2 by Metwatch

[J10]

Excel -> April 2024 CET.xlsx

Summary -> Apr 2024 Summary.pdf

Summary Overall -> Apr 2024 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly

As mentioned above 4 players got it spot on.
BlueSkies_do_I_see, damianslaw, Mr Maunder and Metwatch 

In total 29 within 0.5c.

Seasonal

All change in the Top 3,
Mark Bayley (1), Mr Maunder (2) damianslaw (3)

Overall

A few changes in the Top 3.
snowray 1st (from 3rd), Typhoon John (stays 2nd) Dancerwithwings (3rd from 6th)

But still wide open.

Edited May 2 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

EWP table value was 95.4 mm and it's likely that all tables (involving EWP scoring) will be confirmed with very minor adjustments. 

Once I get a chance to update EWP scoring I will move that table to end of discussion. The combined CET-EWP will stay where it was first posted a few days ago. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP scoring for contest year and April  (final value 95.4 mm)

In tables below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March.

Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 1.1+5 = 6.1. 

Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [ rank ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season.

Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 95.4 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each,  so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). 

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err]

now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo  (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter]

_01 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (01) __ Feb1991blizzard_____10.00 __ 36.22 ______0.4 __ 31.30 mm _ 5 _ (8) ... ...  [9, 9]  ___

_02 _ 02 ___111.0 (28) __ summer18 ___________4.87 __ 34.86 ____ 15.6 __ 29.26 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... ...  [3, 2] ___

_03 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (31) __ Jeff C _________________ 4.30 __ 34.76 _____17.4 __ 33.70 mm _ 7 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] ___

_04 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (05) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.33 ___34.68 _____ 1.6 __ 37.54 mm_ 13_ (26) ... ... [23, 33]  ___

_05 _ 04 ___111.0 (29) __ DR(S)NO _____________4.77 __ 34.13 _____ 15.6 __ 34.54 mm_  8 _ (t9) ... ... [10,15] ___

_06 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (02) __ February1978 ________ 9.81 __ 32.78 ______1.4 __ 35.10 mm_  9 _ (18) ... ... [11, 11] ___

_07 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (41) __ Weather26 ___________ 2.40 __ 32.30 _____28.4 __ 37.78 mm _15 _ (12) ... ... [5,16]  ___

_08 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (35) __ J 10 ___________________3.54 __ 32.13 _____ 20.4 __ 33.42 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] ___

_09 _ 17 ___100.0 (08) __ methuselah __________8.67 __ 31.90 _____ 4.6 __ 39.26 mm _ 22_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] ___ 

_10 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (18) __ Polar Gael ____________ 6.77 __ 31.67 _____ 9.9 __ 38.62 mm_ 20 _(23) ... [25, 31]  ___

(10.5)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 9.81 __ 30.58 _____ 1.1 __ 40.04 mm_23.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5]

_11 _ 14 ___110.0 (26) __ Frigid ________________ 5.43 __ 29.48 _____14.6 __ 28.74 mm _ 1_  (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] ___

_12 _ 06 ___130.0 (44) __ Emmett Garland _____1.80 __ 28.87 _____ 34.6 __ 41.14 mm_ 27_ (17) ... ...[17,23] ___ 

_13 _ 19 ___108.0 (23) __Metwatch _____________5.82 __ 28.68 _____12.6 __ 36.67 mm_ 11_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] ___

_14 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (39)__ virtualsphere _________ 2.59 __ 28.11 _____ 25.4 __ 36.62 mm _10 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] ___

_15 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (20) __ dancerwithwings _____ 6.39 __ 27.90 _____11.4 __ 44.10 mm_t44_(t39) ... ... [21, 36] ___ 

_16 _ 08 ___127.0 (43) __ snowray ______________2.00 __ 27.71 _____ 31.6 __37.74 mm _14 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] ___

_17 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (34) __ godber 1 ______________3.82 __ 27.46 _____18.4 __ 37.30 mm _12 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5]  ___

_18 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (04) __ Mulzy _________________ 9.43 __ 26.42 _____ 1.6 __ 43.94 mm_ 42_ (47) ... ... [32, t46] ___

_19 _ 23 ___110.0 (27) __ jonboy _______________ 5.33 __ 26.27 _____14.6 __ 43.26 mm_ 34 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] ___

_20 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (07) __ rwtwm _________________8.86 __ 25.98 ______4.4 __ 44.10 mm_ t44_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] ___       

_21 _ 15 ___125.0 (42)^__ Don _________________ 1.90^__25.84 _____ 29.6 __ 38.14 mm _16_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] ___

_22 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (51) __ stewfox  ______________ 0.40 __ 25.46 _____ 50.4 __ 38.46 mm _t17 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] ___

_23 _ 26 ___110.0 (25) __ WYorksWeather ______5.53 __ 25.45 _____ 14.6 __ 43.38 mm_ 35 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] ___ 

_24 _ 31 ___104.0 (17) __ Stationary Front ______6.96 ___25.29 _____ 8.6 __ 46.34 mm_ 56 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61]  ___ 

_25 _ 27 ___110.0 (24) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _____5.63 __ 25.14 _____14.6 __ 38.46 mm _t17_ (20) ... .. [40, t26]  ___

_26 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (13) __ weatherforducks ______7.90 ___24.93 _____ 5.4 __ 40.70 mm_ 26 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] ___

(26.1)_(16.4)_59.2 (46.1)__1994-2023 average__1.38 ___24.87_____36.2 __42.78 mm _30.9_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] __

_27 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(6.1) __ 30.64 mm _ 4 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] ___

(27.7)(20.4)_ 63.2 (42.9)__1991-2020 average__ 2.02 _ 23.97 ____32.2 __ 43.54 mm_ 37.1 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] __

_28 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (37) __ Reef ___________________ 3.16 __ 23.78 ____21.4 __ 43.62 mm_ 38 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] ___ 

_29 _ 20 ___133.0 (48)__I remember Atlantic252__ 1.00 __ 23.77 ____37.6 __ 43.46 mm_ 37_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] ___      

(29.9)(21.2) _64.8 (42.1) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.18__ 23.40 ____30.6 __ 44.66 mm_44.3_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8]    

_30 _ 29 ___112.0 (30) __chilly milly ______________4.49 __ 23.34 ____ 16.6 __ 38.54 mm_19_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] ___ 

_31 _ 28 ___113.0 (32) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 4.09 __ 23.29 ____ 17.6 __ 43.66 mm_ 39_(34) ... ... [37, 41] ___ 

_32 _ 37 ___107.0 (21)^__seaside60 _____________ 5.90^__21.90 ____ 11.6 __ 45.34 mm _ 49_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54] __

_33 _ 22 ___135.0 (49) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.80 __ 21.55 ____ 39.6 __ 42.14 mm_ 30_ (16) ... ... [30,t20]  ___

_34 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (16)^__davehsug ______________ 6.85^__ 21.47 _____ 8.4 __ 46.30 mm_ 55_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] ___

_35 _ 32 ___115.7 (36) __ Roger J Smith __________3.35 __ 20.91 ____ 20.3 __ 43.14 mm_  32 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] ___

_36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(6.1)__ 43.44 mm_ 36 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] ___

_37 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 _____ 6.4 __ 51.50 mm_ 67 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] ___

_38 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(6.1) __ 30.44 mm _ 3 _  (t4) ... ... [45, 10] ___

_39 _ 48 ___100.0 (10) __ syed2878 ______________ 8.47 __18.34 ______ 4.6 __ 60.14 mm_ 76 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] ___ 

_40 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (40) __ The PIT _________________2.49 __ 18.07 _____25.4 __ 52.30 mm_ 68_  (62) ... ... [27, t48] ___

_41 _ 49 ___100.0 (09) __ Leo97t _________________ 8.57 __18.01 _____ 4.6 __ 55.14 mm _ 72 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] ___

_42 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (50) ___ summer blizzard ______0.64 __ 17.58 _____ 42.4 __ 53.10 mm _ 69_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] ___

_43 _ 39 ___130.0 (45) __summer8906 ___________1.70 __16.33 _____ 34.6 __ 48.74 mm_ 63 _(t39) ... [41, 37] ___

(43.8)(40.5)_58.4 (46.9) __average of all data ____ 1.22 __ 15.65 _____37.0 __ 51.30 mm _66.8_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _

_44 _ 41 ___131.8 (47) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 1.20 __15.42 _____ 36.4 __ 44.82 mm _48 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] ___

_45 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 ______ 6.4 __ 55.62 mm_ 73 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69]  ___

_46 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____ (6.1) __ 40.56 mm _ 25_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] ___

_47 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (6.1) __ 40.04 mm_ 23 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] ___

_48 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (46) __ Bobd29 ________________ 1.39 __13.07 _____ 35.3 __ 56.46 mm _74 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] ___

_49 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (19) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 6.58 __12.88 ____ 10.4 __ 43.90 mm_t40 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] ___

_50 _(50) __120.0 (38) _ B87 _____________________ 2.97 __ 12.37 _____24.6 __ 40.52 mm_ 24 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) ___

_51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) _ prolongedSnowLover __ --- ---__ 12.30 ____ (6.1) __ 38.84 mm _21 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] ___

_52 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (22) __ summer shower ________6.01 __12.26 _____12.4 __ 63.06 mm_ 77 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] ___

_53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(6.1) __ 48.04 mm_ 62 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] ___

_54 _(---) ___ 96.5 (03) __ Thomas Green __________ 9.61 __ 9.61 ____ 1.1 __  43.22 mm _ 33 _ (---) ... ... first entry ___  

_55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(6.1) __ 41.24 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [46, 28] ___

_56 _(---) ___ 92.0 (06) __ Pulpstar _________________ 9.05 __ 9.05 _____3.4 __ 43.68 mm _ 39_ (---) ... ... first entry ___

_57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __  John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____ (6.1) __ 45.84 mm _t53 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] ___   

_58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (12) __ sunny_vale ________________8.00 __8.24 _____ 5.4 __ 47.72 mm_ 61_ (60)  _ ... ... ( -- -- ) ___

_59 _(---) ___ 90.0 (11) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 8.10 __ 8.10 _____ 5.4 __ 44.08 mm _ 43_ (---) ... ... first entry ____     

_60 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____ (6.1) __ 42.64 mm_ 31 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32]  ___

_61 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (33)  __ Neil N __________________ 3.92 __ 6.51 _____ 18.4 __ 66.70 mm _78 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] ___

_62 _ 62 __ 40.0 (52) __ shillitocettwo _____________0.20 __ 5.44 _____55.4 __ 69.58 mm _79 _(72) ... ... [64, 71] ___

_63 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (6.1) __ 41.84 mm_ 29_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] ___

_64 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(6.1) __ 50.58 mm_ 66_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] ___

_65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(6.1) __ 44.36 mm_ 47 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40]        

_66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(6.1) __ 44.24 mm_ 46 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39]      

_67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(6.1) __ 48.84 mm _ 64 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] ___

_68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(6.1) __ 59.04 mm_ 75 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] ___

_69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(6.1) __ 45.36 mm_ 50_ (48)  ... ... [60, 44] ___

_70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(6.1) __ 45.84 mm_t53_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] ___

_71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(6.1) __ 45.44 mm_ 51_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] ___

_72 _ 67  __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(6.1) __ 45.68 mm _ 52_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] ___

_73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (6.1) __ 46.84 mm_ 57 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] ___

_74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 _____(6.1) __ 47.24 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.1) __ 47.24 mm_t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.1) __ 47.24 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___

_77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(6.1) __ 54.24 mm_ 70 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] ___

_78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (6.1) __ 49.38 mm_ 65_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] ___

_79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 57.6 __ 54.52 mm_ 71_ (---)  _ first entry ... ___

-------------------

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Report on Consensus and Normals scoring Dec to Apr 

 

Consensus __________________________________________ 1991-2010

MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR ___avg-abs ______ MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___FEB ___MAR ___APR ___avg-abs

CET ___ 4.8 ___ 4.2 ___ 5.7 ___ 7.2 ___ 9.4 _____ -- -- _____________ CET ___ 4.8 ___ 4.7 ___ 5.0 ___ 7.0 ____ 9.0 _____ -- -- ___

Error _ -2.2 ___-0.5 ___-2.1 ___-0.9 ___-0.2 ____ 1.18 ____________ Error __-2.2 ___ 0.0 ___-2.8___-1.1 ___ -0.6 _____ 1.34 ___

rank __ 29 ____ 14 ____ 28 ____ 25 ____ 12 _____23.6 ____________ Rank __ 29 ____ 01 ____ 44 ____ 40 ___ 30 _____28.8 ___

(ent) __ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ____ 59 _____60.2 _____________(ent) __ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ___ 59 _____ 60.2 ___

 

EWP __ 88.0 __ 81.0 __ 75.0 __ 78.0 __ 96.5 ___ -- -- ______________ EWP __103.6 __ 94.2 __ 72.4 __ 65.4 __ 63.2 ___ -- -- ___

Error _-73.3 __-16.2 __ -76.3 __ 33.5 __+1.1 ___ 40.2 _____________ Error _ -57.7 __ -3.0 ___-78.9 __-46.1 __-32.2 __  43.6

rank __ 27.0 __ 25.0 __ 28.0 __ 27.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 21.8 ______________Rank __ 19.3 ___5.8 ___ 33.4 __ 41.2 ___ 42.9 __ 28.5

(ent) ___ 53 ____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____54.8______________ (ent) ___ 53 ____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____54.8

 

 

1993-2022 (Dec) 1994-2023 (Jan -Apr) ___________ 1981-2010

MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR __avg-abs ________ MON _ DEC ___ JAN ___ FEB ___ MAR ___ APR __avg-abs

CET ____ 4.9 ___ 4.7 ___ 5.2 ___ 7.0 ___ 8.9 _____ -- -- _____________ CET ___ 4.5 ___ 4.4 ___ 4.4 ___ 6.6 ___ 8.5 _____ -- -- ___

Error__ -2.1 ___0.0 ___-2.6 ___ -1.1 ___ -0.7 _____ 1.30 ____________Error__-2.2 ___-0.3 ___-3.4 ___-1.5 ___-1.1_____ 1.70 __

rank ___ 27 ____ 01 ____ 41 ____ 40 ____ 31 _____ 32.0 ____________Rank __ 32 ___ 8.0 ___ 53 ____ 43 ____ 42 _____ 35.6 __ 

(ent) ___ 59 ____ 68 ____ 61 ____ 54 ____ 59 _____ 60.2 ___________ (ent) ___ 59 ____ 68 ___ 61 ____ 54 ___ 59 _____ 60.2 __

 

EWP __ 106.3 __ 81.0 __ 75.0 __ 67.3 __ 59.2 ___ -- -- __________EWP ___ 97.4 __ 93.0 __66.5 __ 71.5 __ 64.8 ___ -- -- __

Error _ -55.0 __ -16.2 __ 29.0 __-44.2 __-36.2 ___ 35.1 ________ Error __-63.9 ___ -4.2 __-31.6 __-40.0 __-30.6 ___38.1 __

rank ___17.6 ___25.0 ___28.0 ___27.0 ___49.1 ___29.3 ________ Rank __ 22.4 ___ 5.8 ___ 37.0 __ 36.2 ___ 42.1 ___28.7 __

(ent) __ 53 _____ 63 ____ 56 _____ 49 ____ 53 ____ 54.8 ________ (ent) ___ 53 _____ 63 ____ 56 ____ 49 ____ 53 ____ 54.8 __

=============

notes:

For CET, so far all robot forecasts are below actual values, so average absolute is also bias (negative). Our consensus is doing a bit better than the three recent normals, mostly due to a superior outcome in March. January saw the normals doing better, but the other three months are slight advantages for consensus. A strategy of recent 30-yr average plus 1.3 C would result in an average error of 0.84 C and a top ten position in contest.

For EWP, all results are below actual values, and once again average absolute is also bias (negative). 1981-2010 was slightly ahead of other robots until our consensus surged in front in April.  Best EWP strategy is to predict about 50% above recent average values, taking 150% of 1991-2020 would give an average error of 14 mm, well ahead of first place in contest.

 

Edited May 7 by Roger J Smith