April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

(Final) CET and EWP scoring reports, best combined rankings

_ 9.6 C and 95.4 mm _

* Three late forecasts are ranked with scoring levels but combined ranks add 2.

 

CET

 Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____ EWP rank _ combined (total ranks)

_01 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ Blue_Skies_do_I_See (29) ______ ----

_02 ___ 9.6 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (43) _______________ ----

_03 ___ 9.6 _ 97.0 __ Mr Maunder (48) ________________ 5 ______ 8 _____ best combined

_04 ___ 9.6 _108.0__ Metwatch (51) __________________23 _____ 27 _____t-5th best combined

_05 ___ 9.5 _ 70.0 __ virtualsphere (10) ______________ 39 _____ 44 _____15th best combined

_06 ___ 9.7 _ 45.0 __ stewfox (12) ____________________ 51 _____ 57

_07 ___ 9.7 _ 67.0 __ Weather 26 (14) ________________ 41 _____ 48 _____18th best combined

_08 ___ 9.5 _100.0__ syed2878 (38) ___________________10 _____ 18 _____ 2nd best combined

_09 ___ 9.5 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (42) ___________13 _____ 22 _____ 3rd best combined

_10 ___ 9.7 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (44) _______________ ----

_11 ___ 9.5 _ 87.0 __ davehsug (L1-1) _________________16 _____ 29*____t-8th best combined

(12) ___9.4 _ 96.5 __ consensus ________________________(3)_____ (15) ___ (2nd)

_12 ___ 9.4 _135.0__ LetItSnow! (20) __________________49 _____ 61

_13 ___ 9.4 _110.0__ Frigid (24) _______________________26 _____ 39 _____12th best combined

_14 ___ 9.8 _127.0__ snowray (31) ____________________43 _____ 57 _____

_15 ___ 9.4 _113.0__ Midlands Ice Age (45) ___________32 _____ 47 _____17th best combined

_16 ___ 9.8 _ 89.0 __ Weather Observer (46) _________ 14 _____ 30 _____10th best combined

_17 ___ 9.8 _107.0__ seaside60 (L1-2) ________________ 21 _____ 40*____13th best combined

_18 ___ 9.3 _ 84.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ___________20 _____ 38 _____11th best combined

_19 ___ 9.3 _ 91.0 __ rwtwm (19) ______________________ 7 _____ 26 _____ 4th best combined

_20 ___ 9.9 _130.0__ Emmett Garland (21) ___________ 44 _____ 64

_21 ___ 9.3 _125.0__ Don (L1-3) _______________________42 _____ 65*

_22 ___ 9.2 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 9 ) ____________50 _____ 72

_23 ___ 9.2 _ 92.0 __ Pulpstar (28) ______________________6 _____ 29 _____t-8th best combined

_24 ___ 9.2 _ 97.0 __ mulzy (41) ________________________ 4 _____ 28 _____7th best combined

_25 ___10.0 _ 94.0 __ February1978 (54) _______________ 2 _____ 27 _____t-5th best combined

_26 ___10.0 _ 75.0 __ J 10 (56) _________________________ 35 _____ 61

_27 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _______________---

_28 ___ 9.1 _ 60.1 __ Bobd29 ( 6 ) _____________________ 46 _____ 74

_29 ___10.1 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun (33) ________________---

(30) ___ 9.0 _ 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 _____________(42.9)__ (72.9)

_30 ___10.2 _110.0__ Addicks Fan 1981 (26,2.5) _______24 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined

_31 ___ 9.0 _110.0__ jonboy (36) ______________________ 27 _____ 58

(31) ___ 8.9 _ 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 _____________(46.1)__(77.1)

_32 ___10.3 _ 85.0 __ Matt Stoke (22) _________________ 19 _____ 51 _____t-19th best combined

_33 ___10.4 _100.0__ Methuselah ( 7 ) _________________ 8 _____ 41 ____14th best combined

_34 ___10.4 _110.0__ WYorksWeather (23) ____________25 _____ 59

_35 ___ 8.8 _ 74.0 __ Reef (37) ________________________ 37 _____ 72

_36 ___10.4 _111.0__ DR(S)NO (49) ___________________ 29 _____ 65

_37 ___10.4 _104.0__ Stationary Front (52) ___________ 17 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined

_38 ___ 8.8 _ 89.0 __ daniel* (55) _____________________ 15 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined

_39 ___10.5 _ 85.5 __ Polar Gael (32) _________________ 18 _____ 57

_40 ___ 8.6 _111.0__ summer 18 ( 8 ) _________________ 28 _____ 68

_41 ___10.6 _ 90.0 __ sunny_vale (33) _________________ 12 _____ 53 _____t-21st best combined

(42) ___8.5 _ 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 _____________(42.1)__(84.1)

_42 ___ 8.5 _ 90.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (18) __________ 11 _____ 53 ____t-21st best combined

_43 ___ 8.5 _130.0__ summer8906 (30) _______________ 45 _____ 88

_44 ___ 8.4 _ 77.0 __ Godber 1 (47) ____________________34 _____ 78

_45 ___11.0 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (50) _____________1 _____ 46 _____16th best combined

_46 ___ 8.1 _ 78.0 __ Jeff C (11) ________________________ 31 _____ 77

_47 ___ 8.1 _133.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) ____ 48 _____ 95

_48 ___ 8.0 _ 70.0 __ The_PIT (35) ______________________40 _____ 88

(49) ___8.0 _ 58.4 __ average all data _________________(46.9)___(75.9)

_49 ___ 8.0 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (53) ________________----

_50 ___ 7.9 _120.0 __ B87 ( 2 ) _________________________38 _____ 88

_51 ___ 7.9 _ 96.5 __ Thomas Green ( 5 ) ______________ 3 _____ 54 ____t-24th best combined

_52 ___ 7.8 _ 83.0 __ SummerShower (13) ____________ 22 _____ 74

_53 ___ 7.8 _ 77.0 __ Neil N (25) _______________________33 _____ 88

_54 ___11.5 _115.7__ Roger J Smith (40) ______________ 36 _____ 90

_55 ___ 7.6 _131.8__ Kirkcaldy Weather (39) __________ 47 _____102

_56 ___ 7.5 _100.0__ Leo97t (16) _______________________ 9 _____ 65

_57 ___ 7.4 _ 40.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 4 ) _______________ 52 _____109

_58 ___ 7.2 _112.0__ chilly milly (15) __________________ 30 _____ 88

_59 ___ 7.1 _153.0__ Met. (27) ________________________ 53 _____112

==============

Edited May 6 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.7C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 78.9mm 140.6% of the monthly average.

[Derecho]

Looks like 9.6C will be the winning guess if my predictions are correct.

[Frigid]

 Derecho Starting the month with 9.6C, and ending with it. 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 27th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Probably hit the low point now, although might drop to 9.4 degrees tomorrow as maxes today have been preety low. A good bet finish is 9.6 degrees, which happens to be my prediction!, not an especially above average month, but very comfortably so yet again, 1.7 degree above 61-90 mean, more than 1.5 degree above which seem par for the course nowadays and nothing special.

Edited April 28 by damianslaw

[Northern Sky]

I think the first two weeks of April were mild, does anyone know how the last two weeks compare to the average? 

Here in Leeds it's been cold, grey and wet for what seems like ages and my allotment seems way behind where it usually is. 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 28th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun A hold as expected, we might scrape up to 9.7 degrees given tomorrow looking mild, we shall see, but my guess is 9.6 degrees as I predicted, not claiming this was scientific evidence based! 

[reef]

 Northern Sky Figures for here:

April 1st-15th: 11.3C (+3.2C)
April 16th-29th: 6.8C (-2.6C)

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.6C -0.2C, Rainfall 84.5mm 150.6% of the monthly average.

The month is the 18th wettest on record for us. Looking like an 8.7C finish for us just -0.1C below average.

 

[Northern Sky]

 reef Wow, a classic month of two halves. It really has been a miserable last two weeks, hardly any insects about and nothing growing much at all. 

[WYorksWeather]

 seabreeze86 The Met Office will publish the monthly charts pretty soon, usually 1st or 2nd of the following month. It depends on the averaging you use and of course by area. By 1991-2020 the UK on average may even be slightly cooler than average, though the CET will come out just above the 1991-2020 average.

[SteveB]

It's a shocker to think we are still running +1c above the monthly average for April. 

It's been pretty miserable month on the whole,  with what feels little or no warmth to talk about. Yet here we are still running above average. 

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 29th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[johncam]

Question is will we ever see a below average month again  

[Relativistic]

 johncam yes

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 8.7C bang on average. Rainfall 84.5mm 150.6% of average.

Today was very mild so it will bring it up to 8.8C bang on average. Rainfall will be nil today so a Very wet average month.

[damianslaw]

Quite an interesting month in some respects, the contrast from exceptional warmth first half and notable chill second half.

A likely finish 9.6 degrees masking the large contrast. Think we had more frosts this month than in February and March. 

[feb1991blizzard]

My EWP is going to end good but i've done garbage in the CET, its been the other way round this year so far up until now.

[Dancerwithwings]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My EWP is going to end good but i've done garbage in the CET, its been the other way round this year so far up until now.

You can’t have it both ways feb

Hang on a minute…I did in January

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Relativistic thing is SC 25 is a much stronger solar cycle than what we thought it would be.   When we have a weaker solar cycle you have then a warming modification if it makes sense.   

[Don]

 Addicks Fan 1981 SC25 has indeed been stronger than forecast and a more active cycle than 24.  However, it is still in the weak category of solar cycles so far.

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981

As Don says, cycle 25 is stronger than 24 but below 23 which was almost statistically bang on average. 

One hemisphere already peaked so 2025 is likely to see the outright peak but after the first hemispheric peak you normally start to level.

I also doubt that solar activity produces warm months overall. Enhanced westerlies in winter are warm but in summer are potentially cool at our latitude. 

[Metwatch]

Looks like myself and 3 others who guessed 9.6C this month got it bang on.

April ended up at 1.7C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.6C above the 1991-2020 average, so a mild month but in today's climate not significantly so.