Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[swfc]

A snow forum! well theres a first. I thought it was to discuss all weathers, likes and dislikes.

:rofl: :rofl: Regarding the current output the chances of any of todays synoptics being correct in 7-10 days are zero!!!The only thing to look for are the nhp and the movement of any ridging.

[James M]

Well I think John can be forgiven for the mistake, considering the way the forum can be in winter sometimes

[SteveB]

Just seen Ian F on the local news, & he did mention possibly turning colder over Christmas, but did stress no sign of any snow, but what you got to bear in mind is that he is talking about the South West.

 

Still, he certainly didn't sound like he was taking much notice of what the charts are showing today, so I'm guessing Exeter are still very cautious...

[cornish snow]

Just seen Ian F on the local news, & he did mention possibly turning colder over Christmas, but did stress no sign of any snow, but what you got to bear in mind is that he is talking about the South West.

 

Still, he certainly didn't sound like he was taking much notice of what the charts are showing today, so I'm guessing Exeter are still very cautious...

Watched a forecast last night where the south west got buried in snow while the rest of the uk got wind and rain. Trouble was,i woke up.

[SteveB]

Yeah I've had plenty of dreams like that, lets hope these juicy looking charts bring us the perfect Christmas present.

[Cheese Rice]

The ECM keeps the broad trend exemplified by the GFS. That's all that matters.

There really is no need for discussion on the position of a shortwave 7 days out.

This type of erratic mood some members display over one solution is why I ignore this thread.

ECM and GFS are broadly similar and very positive from a cold and snow perspective.

[fergieweather]

Just seen Ian F on the local news, & he did mention possibly turning colder over Christmas, but did stress no sign of any snow, but what you got to bear in mind is that he is talking about the South West.

 

Still, he certainly didn't sound like he was taking much notice of what the charts are showing today, so I'm guessing Exeter are still very cautious...

Ermmm....actually (as EVERY broadcast) I was watching ECM roll-out to T+216 just seconds before going live... and 20 mins previously had been discussing 12z NCEP output with senior UKMO colleagues (we having discussed the 00z stuff earlier in afternoon). So I ASSURE you, there was great notice taken of what models showed and our confidence is high on broadscale theme now to 24th, thereafter with more NW'ly influence phasing from thereabouts into 25th. Hence milder Mon-midweek; chillier into Xmas. Exactly as I said on-air. We certainly won't be drawn into varied fantasy-land of NCEP stuff post-T+120, and never have.

[Tim Bland]

Matt Hugo sounding more confident of snow around Christmas in his latest update!

https://www.facebook.com/AAWeatherWatch

[SteveB]

Fair enough Ian, is just you usually mention the possibility of snow or maybe something colder if the charts are showing as such, even if it  is in FI.

[Hocus Pocus]

Ermmm....actually (as EVERY broadcast) I was watching ECM roll-out to T+216 just seconds before going live... and 20 mins previously had been discussing 12z NCEP output with senior UKMO colleagues (we having discussed the 00z stuff earlier in afternoon). So I ASSURE you, there was great notice taken of what models showed and our confidence is high on broadscale theme now to 24th, thereafter with more NW'ly influence phasing from thereabouts into 25th. Hence milder Mon-midweek; chillier into Xmas. Exactly as I said on-air. We certainly won't be drawn into varied fantasy-land of NCEP stuff post-T+120, and never have.

Ian maybe you need to be a bit more like this chap, a little animated but you'll win lots of adoring snow loving fans. 

[fergieweather]

Fair enough Ian, is just you usually mention the possibility of snow or maybe something colder if the charts are showing as such, even if it  is in FI.

Yes but not solely based on GFS, Steve. Only if we have EC and MOGREPS support... and we can't know that at 6.55pm based on 12z suites...

[SteveB]

Yes but not solely based on GFS, Steve. Only if we have EC and MOGREPS support... and we can't know that at 6.55pm based on 12z suites...

 

Don't suppose you know now do you Ian

[fergieweather]

Don't suppose you know now do you Ian

EC EPS clusters rolling out currently. Will check them later.

[stewfox]

Ian maybe you need to be a bit more like this chap, a little animated but you'll win lots of adoring snow loving fans. 

 

Very funny but T0 to T72 maybe we get same 'problem' soon

[SteveB]

As you can guess, we're all mad for snow on here, so hoping for a full house of model suites going for colder solutions next week.

[fergieweather]

As you can guess, we're all mad for snow on here, so hoping for a full house of model suites going for colder solutions next week.

Understood!

[stainesbloke]

Spoiler shortwaves on the ECM at T216+? Who cares, that's WAY too far out to get worried about. Looking positive for a marked cool down after Xmas which suits me 😀 Can't be doing with the drama of snow before Xmas.

[fergieweather]

EC EPS clusters rolling out currently. Will check them later.

Varied colder NW/northerly types by 28th onwards

[stewfox]

As you can guess, we're all mad for snow on here, so hoping for a full house of model suites going for colder solutions next week.

 

ECM shows the increase in temps short term then drops like a stone 

Edited December 17, 2014 by stewfox

[on the coast]

Varied colder NW/northerly types by 28th onwards

 

At last a seasonal Christmas and New Year could be coming our way. Can't wait to see where we are come Sundays 12z charts.

[SteveB]

Varied colder NW/northerly types by 28th onwards

Good, lets hope we can get this cold locked in, it will certainly be the one Christmas present most of us are wishing for

 

Thanks Ian..

Edited December 17, 2014 by SteveB

[CanadaAl]

Hmmm... Is it me or do we need this low in the mid atlantic shifted? 

[Captain Shortwave]

Possibly the most depressing chart ever

Strongly negative AO and NAO - result, rain and double figure maxima.

Sometimes, you just have to laugh   

[Mark Neal.]

Possibly the most depressing chart ever

Strongly negative AO and NAO - result, rain and double figure maxima.

Sometimes, you just have to laugh   

Just look at the Paralell, might feel better lol

[Backtrack]

Varied colder NW/northerly types by 28th onwards

 

I kinda feel bad in a way when I ask you a question, you're so respected on here that EVERYONE hounds you for information

We all do appreciate your input and someone with your knowledge on here though Ian!