FetchCB

I suspect it's crept under the radar as up to now as a US landfall has not been forecast, however I saw earlier that the models are now hinting that this might not be the case.

Without being flippant, because I'm on no way in any danger, but this looks like a picture of death I'm in two minds... On the one hand marvelling at Mother nature andI it's power but on the other side sitting here with sick heavy feeling at the destruction and almost inevitable death that it will bring

Wilma was just 2 nautical miles andand tjstthat had sustained winds of 185 mph

As per the last public advisory it was 110 miles from St Croix. Sea will rise slowly as long as St Croix stays on the northern side of Maria but the real flooding will come with the storm surge

Maria now on NWS Puerto Rico long range Radar https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=no

What is interesting is that I was watching this feed a couple of hours ago and the wind doesn't seem to have noticeably picked up but the sea has appreciably, obviously being driven by Maria.

This buoy will not be that far from the eye if the current track remains as is http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060&unit=M&tz=STN already showing sharp drop in pressure and increase in winds

I wonder if the NHC are reading this thread

St Croix next in line whether it will be a direct hit im not sure

Thing to bear in mind ,especially when looking over a very short time frame, is that a storm of this intensity is more likely to "wobble". I have no scientific evidence as for the reason but my sense tells me that it is being steered by a ridge to the north, this ridge is not uniform ( what is in nature :-) ) and that the wobbles are Maria pushing against the ridge and finding soft spots in the ridge although this could be entirely wrong

Looking at the latest radar... Is that the start of an eyewall replacement cycle (erc)? If so then it may spare Dominica the worst scenario

I wonder if next year we will see a different type of warning... Currently a hurricane warning means to expect hurricane winds within 48 hrs? With the rapid intensification that we now see first with Irma and now especially with Maria It seems that a new warning is needed to warn of the potential of rapid intensification. It's one thing to be warned of a Cat 2 or at a stretch 3 but when that warning means facing a strong cat 5 you need evacuation

It could depend on what other info in terms of observations they have from the French Authorities that may support a Cat 5? NNot sure tho whether a Cat 5 declaration as opposed to Cat 4 will have on disaster response from the French Politically within the US it may stir the global warming discussion again

The cloud now casting you refer to is called the dvorak technique. It is used by the nhc and will quite often quote it in their discussions http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html And yes dry air encroaching into a hurricane that is trying to rapidly intensify can have a very large impact on on the hurricane concerned. Moisture is it's lifeblood. So not an unreasonable observation albeit one that did not come to fruition

facebook live streaming from MArtinique https://www.facebook.com/livemap/?ref=trending#@14.76691505925414,-60.97412109375,8z

Agreed, NHC have extended the favourable conditions from 24hr to "24hr and possibly longer" This extension being the reason they have given a higher intensity forecast

I fear for those in Puerto Rico. They have in no way shape or form recovered from Irma, power is still out to a lot of the island, so questions marks about being able to get the message out about the severity of the storm that may come their way. A lot of debris with a wind in excess off 130mph become hugely destructive missiles alongside weakened buildings, all the hallmarks of a tragedy in the making

This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h (my bold and underline) so 10mph below cat5

looks like hurricane hunters due to intercept eye in about 30 mins so we will get an idea then. their last pass recorded a 2mb drop since the last advisory

the last couple of frames on visible satellite possibly showing the eye clearing out.

Not sure tbh. It has a look of a TS about it and it may well be that thunderstorm activity is intensifying briefly whilst being in favourable conditions created by the outflow from Maria. This is not likely to last and Lee is due to be affected by shear, whether it becomes organised enough to withstand the shear though I guess is the question

Not sure if anyone has posted link before but link shows real time Flight path & observations graphic with the ability to add different layers http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

This is, I suspect, going to be a forecasters nightmare. The basic premise as always is that the Maria will edge around the high pressure sitting in the Atlantic just like Imra did. However the point at which it starts taking a more northward shift is down to the modelling of the high pressure, something which with the exception of UKMet and ECM , was not handled well with Irma Looking at the ECM track days 3-5 seems to be heavily influenced by Jose ( which is due to stall and loop back towards Maria) , in the impact it has on the Atlantic high . My suspicions are that if Jose does not stall and loop back in the North East then the High pressure will build behind it and allow Maria to take a more westerly path than would otherwise be the case

Agree 5 would be pushing it .Discussion #7 highlighted the chances of rapid intensification The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h. This was from a base of 70 kt so a 35% chance of reaching 125kt ( 140 mph) in 48hrs

14 mile eye open in southwest