FetchCB

Last radar image shows an eyewall

I would imagine the mountains would have some effect Hurricane Betsy in 1956 followed a similar path through Puerto Rico and was a Cat2 on entry and a Cat1 on leaving Screen shot from https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Timing all important for Leeward Islands. NHC has Maria as major hurricane in 24 hrs. As soon as Maria gets its act together in the eyewall I think they expect rapid intensification. Those in the immediate path of Maria may be "spared" the worst of what Maria could become but it it does look bleak for those that were hard hit by Irma, but again ( as is almost always the case) a high pressure to the north will ultimately determine the path of Maria and when and how much it turns north west

2017/8 storm names and criteria for issuing a name Essentially its all about potential impact and raising awareness of risk with the general public https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/news/releases/2017/storm-names-for-2017-18-announced

They go because it's cheaper and looking at the critiscm they then aim at the tour companies and govt for not getting them out of harms way speaks a little of hypocrisy. That said the tour company does make a profit and the govt does levy a charge and tourists during the off season does help the local economies Personally I think that is you travel during the hurricane season then additional insurance should be paid to even up the price discrepency with any profits going to a fund to assist redevelopment of the areas affected. Tour operators could also be levied.

Interesting to read what some people on twitter via this thread have been saying in regards to intensity or at least casting doubt on its ability to regain cat 5 status. Historically what they say is probably true but we are in uncharted waters so to speak. Model dynamics follow rules that are based on observations from the past along with science that helps predict the future. To date we have seen a number of firsts for a hurricane season and for a storm that to me indicate that the models have not had a good handle of Irma.. Whether you believe in global warming or not the world is warmer than it used to be, the SSTs are higher than normal and in a chaotic model such as the weather these small changes may have significant impacts. These impacts are not likely to be known until the NHC reanalyse the data and then tweak the model further. In terms of Irma yes it could explode again to Cat 5 to say otherwise with any definitive voice seems foolhardy to me

scary as hell Apparently filmed by a resident from his kitchen on Anguilla

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/#IMPACT Other factors which can impact storm surge are the width and slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope will potentially produce a greater storm surge than a steep shelf. For example, a Category 4 storm hitting the Louisiana coastline, which has a very wide and shallow continental shelf, may produce a 20-foot storm surge, while the same hurricane in a place like Miami Beach, Florida, where the continental shelf drops off very quickly, might see an 8 or 9-foot surge. More information regarding storm surge impacts and their associated generalizations can be found in the FAQ section.

well its often said the sea in a hurricane represent a boiling sea

90.3F?

Thanks Nick I guess my thought was if the GFS was progging a lower pressure then it may be able to push a little harder against the ridge hence its more northerly projected track compared to the EC

I have a question which hopefully someone can answer In the UK it is often said that the more severe the depression/Storm then the more it curves poleward. is it the same with Hurricanes? If so then maybe if GFS is overdoing the depth of pressure within Irma then it would want to curve it poleward ?

Obviously the erc was impacting the strength as was the probability that the relatively shallow waters around Turks and Caicos restricting some the fuel for Irma

Not seen the track myself but possibly interaction with the mountains of Cuba?

I think the reasoning mentioned in the discussion behind the weakening was vertical shear. However they did strike a note of caution that this may not happen if the timing wasn't right

Or those that are undocumented that fear arrest and deportation by Trumps police force aka ICE Ieven saw a quote from the Polk County Sherrif saying that all was welcome at the shelter and if you have a warrant for your arrest you'll be going straight to Jail

903mb would make it into the top ten most intense by central pressure ?

towards the end he spoke of how strong the wind felt and that the hurricane hadn't even started yet....you could see the realisation on his face of what was to come and it wasn't good

Not as high might be a good idea tho. much like Houston it seems the developers dependency on a once in a 500 year chance not being in their lifetime may come back to haunt them. The Panaorama Tower which at 265m is the highest isnt due to be completed until the end of the year and presumambly not fully compliant. scroll down to the bottom https://www.thenextmiami.com/miamis-six-tallest-towers-construction/ As an aside apparently the cranes that on building sites have even less resiliency to storms

Not that I can find

Over the last hour the eye appears to have become more symmetrical and clearer after having been quite ragged this morning. A sign of further intensification? If so bad news for Turks and Caicos

Eyewall Replacement Cycle

Although its "only" 126 knots, based on this research back in 2000 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml and the fact that there are a number of buildings in Miami that are 200m high the tops of the building will be experiencing 180mph winds - Cat5 Ominously this article states that building regs are built to 175mph http://www.miami.com/miami-news/should-you-ride-out-a-hurricane-in-a-high-rise-170895/ " The cooling tower atop high-rises is the thing that keeps the AC running throughout the building. In the case of a hurricane, the unit’s breakers will be shut off for safety, so get ready to sweat. At least you don’t have to worry about the tower getting blown off the roof. According to Jose Carmero, building director for the City of Miami, cooling towers are built to sustain winds of 175 mph, just like the rest of the building. “They are secure,” Carmero says. “I’d only worry about them if we had a storm that had 200 mph winds. In that case, I’m not so sure.”

Am I reading that right 165 kt - 190mph ? with a central pressure of 899mb!! only 20mb above Wilma in 2005