FetchCB

Interestingly the NHC is going with ECM, the middle ground, although whether there is an element of "politics" in that decision in that by keeping the centre track on hitting Florida it will focus minds on evacuation and preparedness Im not sure

https://twitter.com/Justice97133?lang=en

Near Miss from the core maybe but there will still be significant wave damage if the https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-11-00,22.004,-68.467,5 site is to be believed ..wave hieghts of 9m This link shows the impact of storm surge has on the US http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad

theres a guy in BVI braodcasting now... https://www.facebook.com/livemap/#@18.437924653474408,-64.4293212890625,7z not sure he realises whats about to hit him

It would appear that at day 4&5 Irma finds a weakness between two ridges of high pressure. one centred over the continental US and the other the Sub Tropical Atlantic Ridge. Once it finds the weakness it would appear there is nothing to stop it going poleward but the two high pressures prevent it from going east or west. Thing is the timing of the weakness

Elevation for Antigua and Barbuda http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/CountryElevationMap/?ct=AG Latest Advisory from NHC gives storm surge at around 20ft above tide level for Turks and Caicos, However seabead shelving plays a big part in storm surge but doubt 40ft

British Virgin Islands Webcam....aptly named Soggy Dollar

OMG Im at work with headphones on...keep telling myself to breathe, the noise!!!!

Indeed, according to twitter there is no communication from Barbuda, Antigua have been trying for 90 mins

Wilma was only 882mb

along with the search for a bargain £££ wise

NOAA Bouy based on Barbuda http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BARA9 suspect readings will start to detrioate very soon as according to this site based on the atest guidance from NHC the storm will be on them in a little under 24 hours http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

In a sense of what be called IMBYism tainted with wishful thinking I am away on holiday in Cornwall first two weeks in July and have watched the ensembles with a fair degree of interest. It does seem to me that they mean pressure has on average (taken over the course of each day) been rising. When the first week came into view on the ensembles the first few days of July the mean was 1000 - 1010mb but now trends 1010 - 1020mb

Knocker When I watched the Facebook broadcast from Met Office earlier the Chief Forcaster pointed to a blob of cloud and said that they could just start to see the low developing and then went on to explain that it was the shearing interaction of the jet stream that really winds the depression up. trained eyes are wonderful things

From what I can see they are...the storm is only just developing and likelihood of damaging winds is dependent on the timings of the Jet Stream and the system still developing. If either are slightly out then the winds will not be as damaging. Not an easy call and computers can only help so much. The issuing of the weather warnings has far greater impact than just to keep us weather junkies advise,. it also initiates procedures within the 1st Repsonder community and all that it entails

Weather Warnings uses the Probability Impact Grid ie the higher the likeleyhood and the higher the impact the greater the warning This is the grid for Eastern England More info on the impacts can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice along with some guidance about the terminology used in the warnings. I suspect therefore that if the warning area does not coincide with the highest speeds it must be that the impacts are not envisaged to be as great.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/71 - Synoptic Scale Modifaction I suspect that with it being a slack easterly the dew points are being modified by the North Sea

Peterborough dew point 0.9C temp 4.8C and wind has has switched from SW to NNW

Too cold to snow - that will be when we had the wrong type of snow then -8C in Guildford and no trains https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_wrong_type_of_snow

I think Peterborough will miss out on this but poss St Ives (Cambs) might see something but probably after i leave work temp in Peterborough has fallen to 0.5c (5.5c) in last hour as has the Dew Point (1.4C)

Indeed and not just visibility problems but also drivers attitudes change. They become more hesitant seeing potential issues where there are none, slow down and then the sheer volume of traffic does the rest. and if it does start to stick .......http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2712045.stm

Mo problems. GFS is Global and the MetOffice Global model is down 17km 6 days out. ECM I believe is now at 9km

THE GFS model goes down to 28km in resolution which would be sufficient to pick the streamer and the Met Office have MoGreps and UKV the latter of which is down to 1.5km resolution. ( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting). Looking at the forecast GFS does seem to pick up a possible streamer although i suspect you will will have to wait until Wednesday onwards to hear specifics and greater accuracy from the Met as a result of MoGreps and UKV

Not so sure about that. Met Office use the models for guidance and the narrative that they publish is a consideration of the forecast team. If they believe that the models have issues then they use experience to guide their forecasting. What they do not do is jump around from run to run. You may be right in that the narrative will change but it is not a given thing just because the models are now saying something different. With the PV lobe over northern Canada it was always a big ask for the HP to reach up to Greenland but I believe someone said that the Iceland /Scandinavia area was a more natural home. The met office talk 9f North easterly which fit with this and the models may just be overreacting to the signals from the strat in sinking it southwards

Basically its forcing on the Vortex red at the top is good, GP's post refers to it.