FetchCB

12.30 forecast John Hammond says further snowfall on Friday and then showed graphic for dangerous windchill over the weekend with further snow

Had nothing in Staines so far this morning

Hi guys Im travelling up on Saturday from London to pick up my partners kids who were up for xmas. Ill be travelling to chester le street and Stanley. Whats the road conditions like and thoughts for the weather at the weekend?

interestingly the board has some of the same feel to it as those in the caribbean when hurricanes are on their way.... a sort of OMG !!!

Would that include the snowballs Paul ?

beat mt to it Paul

Update from Met Office at 15:53 for all of the SE "There is a potential for a period of heavy snow during Wednesday morning with locally large accumulations. The location of the heavy snow is uncertain and will be kept under review."

looks like the front stalls over midlands and actually hits SE overnight Tuesday/Wednesday ? Better result , less marginal and the PPN on wednesday is an upgrade :-)

I think the key there is the words "at least, to an extent". Im assuming from that the threat remains although not as severe initially but with the possibility that it may become severe. next Weekend is an age away in model terms. If I have learnt nothing from model watching ( esp for snow) over the last 5 years is that snow in the SE appears exactly when forecast is very rarely 100% certain and is almost always made up of showers merging into longer periods of snow.

Given that Friday IS 4 days away the exact track of the low pressure is subject to change. I would be surprised if Met office came out with an advisory ( 60% confidence) at this early stage

but it is an upgrade for the South East as previously the weather warning only included the eastern areas of the South east but this extends a lot further west with the warning of travel disruption

looks like those in the SW of the region will miss out unless it sinks further south

Snowing now

well looking at the nw radar we should have been in at least heavy rain for the last 20 mins....light sleet ????????????????????????

Slight sleet in staines

oh dear in about an hour Im heading that way on the way up to Newcastle :wacko:

Cheers think i might see if I can hire my own gritter

mmmm Saturday night travelling up to Newcastle from London and then back down again same day ....should be fun

I actually find the Met Office press release as encouraging. They are obviously covering some bases here but they have on there 6-15 day forecast becoming increasingly bullish about the prospect of snow and very cold weather. I wonder how much they are actually relying on the models and how much is "forecaster skill" ?

So much of the what the models are showing are based on fine tipping points. If the high pressure tilts a few degrees one way or another or is further north or south, If the low pressure that squeezes over the top of the Greenland black is less vigourous....so many ifs and buts. I have a hunch ( not a scientific one) that with the first potential snow chance now just outside t72 that GFS is playing its usual downgrade game only for it to come back 24-48 hours later but where we will get a dumping may be down to looking to the fax charts for troughs on an E/NE wind

According to the following "presentation" on lake effect snow http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/smfaculty/byrd/sld006.htm it states that there should be a >13C difference (amongst other things) between the T850 temp and the sea/lake temp so even at 7C it would only take a T850 of -6 for the effect to be a risk. I

The Jan 87 temp was around 5C for the southern North Sea Last week it was around the 11C mark maps etc can be found here http://www.bsh.de/en/Marine_data/Observations/Sea_surface_temperatures/SST_d.jsp#0

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Dec 2009 to Thursday 24 Dec 2009: It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east. Updated: 1150 on Thu 10 Dec 2009" slowly coming round to the idea

One thing I remember from the winters of 79 and 81 was the comments regarding the impact on the temperatures of the wind coming off the frozen fields of europe. Is this programmed into the models do you think? I would also think that with the North Sea being so warm in comparison to those winter months that lake effect snow could be a real threat?

For those of us who are still trying to understand the models can you explain why you believe this to be so Ian?