The Giant Daddy Jackpot

I have every confidence in the models that the West country will see a lot of the white stuff before the winter is out. Be patient!

Yes, the METO are now confident of a cold block right into next weekend with cold uppers really digging in. Snow showers moving inland from those North Sea troughs and really pepping up by Wednesday.Anyone disappointed by the lack of any white stuff in our area tomorrow should see some by the middle of the week and feeling bitter in a keen NE flow!

Initially excluding coastal fringes up to 3 miles inland (except over 400m). Then turning to snow even here in the very early hours of Tuesday morning.

I think the rain in our region is overplayed on those charts. Only along low-level southern coastal areas is it more likely and that even turning to the white stuff as we head into the very early hours of Tuesday.

The GFS 12Z shows 'that' front deepening by Tuesday with the cold undercutting, so any areas affected by only rainfall in the SE on Monday will turn to heavy snow Monday night.

Very good potential for heavy snow showers across the SE on Wednesday with some perhaps merging together for more prolonged snowfall. Essex, Kent and East Sussex in the firing line.

There is always the possibility of that front stalling and intensifying over the SE. The MET O are keeping tight-lipped at the moment and are stating that confidence is 'low' about the quantities of snowfall, particularly for southern and southeastern parts. Anything from a few cm to a very disruptive event!

As we see time and time again, the GFS will come on board eventually with the general synopsis - in the latter part of the weekend or early next week, that I have no doubt. The UKMO have now committed themselves to predicting extreme cold and the threat of significant snowfall towards the east. The ECM has proven yet again to be very reliable!

The recent winters have shown a trend to colder and snowier ones due to low solar activity. The trend is towards lower winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere for the coming years and winter 2012/13 is shaping up to being another. The Met Office were right to sit on the fence about this latest call as the models are chopping and changing and I would urge patience and optimism because, as we have seen so many times of past, the continental cold pool takes a lot of shifting. With uppers still on the right track to our NE, confidence is high that a NE - E flow will occur perhaps by the middle of next week at the earliest and if it does establish it could last well into the Xmas period. We are due a 1963 or even a 1947 and if it isn't this winter it will happen in this current run of colder winters I'm sure. Confidence in that is very high.

Well, during the last couple of weeks or so the models just could not hit the nail on head for a trend to sustained cold but I think in the last 48 hours that trend is coming into focus and the odds are shortening for a sustained cold period without a western jet intervention. I feel that most here are confident of an easterly flow by next week and strong signals of a Siberian blast as a Scandi High looks likely. I won't stick my neck out for lots of snow but very low temperatures looks on the cards.

I thought they only used heating oil in Canada. Do they have gas boilers too there?

Hope you're enjoying the snowfall up there! The radar shows the front moving south and not south westerly. I guess it will track SW later, or will it?

This is too close to call for which parts of Southern England will see snow fall and how much. The Met are being very cagey again over the exact area and expect updates any time. Keep checking with the BBC forecasters and the Met for updates and expect changes. I think the South East will get some light snow fall, perhaps just a cm at most as that front weakens.

Moderate snow with brisk wind. Radar showing heavier stuff to the NW and not too far away now.

Studying the radar it looks like East Anglia, Essex etc are going to get the heaviest falls. The North Downs and the Chilterns should also do well. Snow band definitely intensifying as it moves East.

Beginning of February is certainly looking good for the white stuff countrywide but it needs a few more days to confirm this. Look out for the charts on Sunday!

Friday's event is certainly shaping up to be another classic "M4 corridor" marginal event. The Met are being very cautious about the warning of heavy snow for the south west in particular but who can blame them after some of their bad calls last winter.

Thank you for more information about this "polar blast". In the 3 years of observing the posts in these model forums I don't think I've seen as much excitement and anticipation. I'm sure we will be in for surprises after the front moves through. With that unstable airmass some serious snowfall is possible almost anywhere!

Don't know about kidnapped, but last time I saw him on BBC SE he looked like he'd just escaped from an old people's home!

Apart from the consistency of the jet and gulf stream what possible correlation is there between North American weather systems and Europe? None as far as my understanding.

The models are definitely showing HP building over SCAND again and a return to Easterlies next week. Let's hope it brings some serious snowfall again. I just have a feeling that Feb and/or March will really bring some serious winter, far more than we have seen so far!!

What is your opinion on the forecast by some of a Dalton type minimum occurring? Also, if a cooling trend does occur over the next 30 years or so do you think the effects will be equal in the southern hemisphere?

Forgive me if you believe that this post is off topic but this seemed the nearest thread for me to post these views.In the northern hemisphere polar region as a whole temperature profiles definitely show a marked decrease and greater extent than any year I have studied them in the past 15 years. Surely it greatly enhances a higher probability of a sustained colder winter for the UK in 2010. There is much discussion on the Nino effect and it's effect on the position of the jet stream. But I find this argument by the Met Office to be a cop out to save a little face on falsely predicting a mild winter. When we consider the length of cumulative severe winters during the Dalton and Maunder minimum periods surely the Nino effect can be discounted as a major factor especially during low solar activity which have at present. Could it be possible that some of the models are perhaps less reliable because of this?