Blackjack

I don't think the colder air is due to dig in until later this evening and then we will be left with transient wintry showers. I'm not holding out hope for where i live today. Mild blip over the weekend and then who knows after that...possible Easterly with more prolonged cold...then we can maybe get excited about ppn coming through as snow.

We've had the bookies making it the warmest Christmas on record according to one paper and another saying coldest snowiest since 63. You have to laugh. I agree with cold and dry run up to Xmas, certainly the opposite of last year. Closer to the date...who knows. Lets see where the High pressure ends up and how much energy the Atlantic pushes south of us. Very interesting model watching right now.

I disagree Andy. From what i understand reading the mod thread (and cutting through dross "I can't believe we're not having a 1947, 1962, 2009, 2010 winter" ad nauseam) there is nothing for cold snow lovers in the immediate future. This mild may last just under a week, with a slow return to more seasonal temperatures, with the potential, if somewhat with low probability at present for blocking to our north towards Xmas and more frosty conditions that we have seen at the start of the month. We're in a better position than last year. It ain't a 2015 Christmas that's for sure.

Great clear crisp morning. -1.6C on my station. -3C when out in the countryside in the car. Far better than last year so far.

Interesting post from Fergie in the South West thread. Contingency planning forecast is going for colder than average winter. Its been the perfect October (for me) and hopefully a quiet November on the Atlantic front.

At 10pm it was snowing in Cickhowell quite significantly when I left my mates house. 1 mile down the road rain. Nothing in AberG

Snowing on top of the Blorenge Aberagvenny. Right now

With the positive shift to colder conditions on the horizon i feel i can again rejoin the bosom of the Wales Regional forum. Lots of optimism in the models thread and the usually mild rampers seem to be unusually quite.

absolutely brass monkeys wind out there today.

Interesting drive home over the A465 winds drifting the snow (although not that deep) at highest point. Slow going.

So what's with this Polar Low everyone is getting excited about in the Mod thread??

Yellow alert for wind too. The warnings look like a Venn diagram.

More snow than sleet now in Merthyr. Trying its hardest.

As dew points drop over the coming hours then maybe snow could fall to lower levels. At the moment 300m plus is where the money is.

Agreed. I'm unsure where most are getting their weather forecasts from as MetO and BBC have been pretty good at calling things this winter. So i'm unsure why people are disappointed when there was never anything really significant touted in the first place. With the MetO updating their warnings and the cold only just getting started there's still bags of potential left. As Public Enemy said "Don't.....don't don't don't......don't believe the hype" -------------> Mod boards It ain't winter 13/14 and it ain't going to be 'mild' over the next week, so sit back an chill.

Had to turn around trying to go from Crickhowell over to Garnlydan. Going up Black Rock was exciting but as soon as i got West of Highest Point it all faded away. Doubt there will be much to lower levels today. Merthyr is just wet at the moment, but Dowlais Top has a covering.

Looks like thunder snow around Bradford/Leeds. Lucky beggers

Temp here 3.2c dew point 0.2c Looks like sleety rain out there

Wishbone effect is going to leave me with nowt. I'd be happy to be surprised though. NWly just isn't a payout for South East Wales

Fantastic viewing the PWS on WunderMap. 7.4c SW wind at 8am 3.3c WNW wind at 12pm Not mine I might add. Ebbw Vale

Wonderful hail squal coming through Merthyr right now. Temps dropping behind the front and Ireland already down to 2-3c with wintery showers.

I still believe I'm too far East to really benefit. AberG is smack in the shadow of the Beacons and the Black Mountains, which is a benefit at times for dodging rain but it can be a pain for snow.

I guess I'll be sitting this one out as the Black Mountains and Beacons are going to be a very effective snow shield for AberG.

Blinking Baltic this morning. Went for a run at 7am and it was a massive shock to the system. Fantastic frost in AberG. Everything white and crisp

You know what i take my hat off to the MetO. I'm glad they don't do long range punts anymore, but their 5 day forecast and warning are pretty much spot on. So much hysterics on the Mod thread from armchair experts "Why aren't the Meto issuing Amber warnings" "The MetO will have egg on their face with this one" etc Always search out an IanF post among the dross.