Blackjack

I knew someone who lived in Yellowknife. He soon found that coming back home to the UK was preferable. There is snow and cold....and then there is snow and cold.

I guess some people will never be happy unless they move to Canada or Scandinavia. Some people seem to take it as a personal affront if the weather is not trending to some kind of apocalyptic snow or cold. It just doesn't seem enough for some that we have in the last 5 years gone through 09/10 10/12 and 12/13 winters with 13/14 being amazing for IMO for all the wrong reasons, but fascinating all the same. So say the charts started showing a 46/47 or 62/63, I bet some people still wouldn't be happy unless it topped them or happened again exactly the same the next year. I love snow and snow days and freezing weather, but if you're that desperate for extremes, think about emigrating. For me its NO repeat of last year. I expect it to be cold and wet from now towards the end of month with the potential for a negative NAO at Xmas or later. High pressure to sit over UK for some time around Xmas into New Year bringing settled cold weather/fog and frost. IF the NAO goes negative then we can look at the potential for some prolonged cold spells in Jan. Only then can we search for some significant snow country wide.

Way out there at t240 but is the GFS 12z starting to produce shallow lows off Newfoundland tracking further south? Possible start of height gains to Greenland? Will blocking occur to Greenland and will the lows be pushed further south on successive runs??? Straw clutching?

Its all looking like transient cold for the reliable time frame. Cold and wet and maybe not so cold at times. A typical Dec then. No model out to t96 - t120 looks like building sustainable heights to our north and the jet looks quite strong and flat during that time frame. The NAO looks set to go negative towards the end of Dec so i'm guessing the New Year and into Jan is when we could see the jet deflecting and some prolonged cold periods. There is also growing confidence that Stratospheric warming could occur in the latter part of Dec which to my amateur knowledge could mean some influence on our weather in mid Jan, possibly bringing more 'interesting' weather for Coldies. I am still learning and trying to piece together information from many threads and would welcome anyone's thoughts on things. Not so bold as to post in the Mod thread just yet.

Its hilarious even from the more knowledgeable posters. I've seen mild and cold ramped since mid Nov. Mild lovers winding up coldies and vice versa. Nothing has played out exactly as some have so confidently predicted. I've decided this year to pick 24th Dec as obviously its the date of interest at this time of year. The 06z GFS is my run of choice. So I'm looking at the 850 temp and 500 height as well as the NH 500 and comparing each run as it gets closer to the day. Its just a way for me to educate myself and try and look for trends and also see how so many bold predictions in the Mod thread can be so wrong 14 days out.

I know its not the most scientific way of doing things but has anyone else done some chart matching for the next 48 hours and 10-12 Dec 1962. Things look similar......ish!!! Just clinging on to rays of hope as the Mod thread is in the pit of despair. Which went to this Hey i've got took for snow somewhere

Could this possibly be our first snow of the season? Okay it may be a bit wet but who knows what could follow after this low barrels through. There's a couple of fronts on the FAX chart so it may be back edge snow? Any assistance from the better educated would be great. It's certainly not turning out the same as last year...

Beacons looked very festive this morning. Very light flurry of snow as I drove over Llangynidr mountain at 9am. Models thread is in constant flux right now. There has been a lot of mild ramping going on, and has been for a few weeks now....but it never seems to come to anything, which is fine by me. Its looking nothing like last year and there seems to be plenty of opportunity for cold and wintry showers in the reliable time frame (5 days) Probably sleety and cold (not freezing and snowing). It will be interesting what the models look for after this Atlantic low moves away. My gut feeling is a progression to a longer spell of cold weather as to go into weeks 3-4 of Dec. Fingers crossed.

Back again. Hopefully a better show all round than last year. I've been following as best I can the OPI thread and Strat thread since early Oct. Can't confess to understanding a huge amount but there seems to be confidence of some cold and snow this winter. Strat thread is getting excited.

Thunder hail here. What a crazy winter. May not have had the snow I wanted but it's been interesting. It will certainly stick in the memory. Some day soon hopefully we will see a weather report without a deep low smashing in from the Atlantic

Very heavy squally rain now in Merthyr. Today is not going to be pretty. Stay safe. Hope everyone in West Wales come out of today unharmed. Thoughts are with my Uni town of Aberystwyth.

Chucking it down with snow here in Merthyr.

I thought that the cold block was a little too far East and the Atlantic would win out on Thurs. Not by blasting the block away but by bringing in milder temps pushing any wintery showers to the NE. To the west will be mostly rain. Thats my reading of it anyway. Unless there is a westward correction of the cold?? Cold air more likely to be the winner next week

Im going to start referring to the Models thread as the Tantrums and Tiaras (T&T) thread. In my novice opinion its still all to play for. If it wasn't for stellar charts on Wednesday then there wouldn't be such doom and gloom right now. From what i can gather we are moving away from this barrage of Atlantic Lows to something more seasonal. Even if its next to normal Jan temps i'll be happy. A glance at charts i can see some height rises to Scadinavia which is good. Things are moving in the right direction, but because it seems that we won't be getting the cold rapidy estabilsing and an possible easterly as was showing on Wed everyone in the T&T thread is slitting their wrists. In my opinon anything t+96 is subject to quite a change such is the volatilty of the models. Keep the faith

Well then. Everyone seems rather bullish over in the Models thread re cold next week. 12z has turned out good it seems. This time next week we could be looking out at totally different weather. Time to get a tad excited??

Model thread is going bonkers. So the cold is on its way.

Heavy hail shower, now its gone dark as night here in Merthyr. Sleet and snow in the air.

Almost an inch of rain here today and rain rate up 19mm per hour right now. Record low for me 970.6hPa and still dropping

Just waiting for this ppn to reach Merthyr now. Going to beinteresting in the next few hours

Well that was one of the worst drives home ever over the head of the valley. Squall was very impressive earlier. Must check the weather station. Although I was only getting 18mph gusts earlier. Will change the settings possibly.

Tomorrow is looking mighty interesting. It may be wet slushy stuff, but if it hits during rush hour there may be a few traffic jams. Dowlais Top may get interesting on the way home

http://m.inhabitat.com/inhabitat/#!/entry/mesmerizing-earth-wind-map-shows-realtime-wind-conditions-around-the,52b08460025312186ca28a12 Probably best to cut and paste the entire link Sorry for the long link. Not sure if it's common knowledge but I found it fascinating. There's a link for a real time wind map within the article. Will be an interesting watch over the coming weeks.

Am i right in thinking that if the upper temps can drop and we draw in colder air around the 24/25 we could potentially be looking at blizzard conditions. The low that is heading our way is still showing as being very potent for the festive period. The Dam line is be favourable. Would -4 uppers coupled with this low produce something spectcular? Or do the lows coming of the atlantic draw in warmer air therefore scuppering any significant snowfall?

Frankly I’m still optimistic of some cold weather around the festive period as up until a few days ago, all that was showing was a big fat Euro High to sit there forever and a day. The mild lovers on the models thread were adamant that this was the case. Now it looks like we're in for a pattern change, the grey, still, dross is being pushed away and the high over Europe is going to take a battering. All to play for and the last 2 weeks of model watching has made me realise that to look past 4-5 days and be certain of the weather outcome is foolish.

Mild lovers are going loopy over tonight's ECM...... Just like cold lovers did over the ECM last year..........