Blackjack
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All quiet in AberG. Was an interesting drive from Garnlydan to Crickhowell. Really chucking it down up there.
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It seems that what is forcast and what is on the radar are two different things. MetO going for heavy snow in Merthyr from 5pm onwards. Radar would appear to say otherwise.
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Wind has whipped up and it's chucking it down with icy rain
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Nothing in Merthyr atm but it's gone very dark.
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Live in Abergavenny now and work In Merthyr Tydfil so Dowlais is going to be a nightmare in about an hour.
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I'm from Morriston so if there is snow in Swansea then there's hope for the rest of us.
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Lively showers heading in from Ireland. Thunder? Lighting? Snow? The current band of ppn is going to cause chaos here during the rush hour.
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Keeping my eyes on WunderMap for drops in temp and potential ppn. Looking promising if Sam's post is anything to go by.
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Up the Gurnos at the mo. Moderate snow. Starting to stick. 1°C on the car.
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Snowing a lot earlier than I expected it to albeit on higher ground.
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Any reports of snow yet. Rain here in Merthyr town centre. Netweather radar showing snow mid/North Wales. I think the Dowlais traffic cam is starting to show snow.
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Depending on what time it hits it may be very interesting trying to get home from Merthyr tomorrow.
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Rain here in AberG. Hoping it will turn to snow as day wears on. Temp dropping.
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I know for a fact that Derek loves mild and heat. Although that doesn't mean he'd bias his forecast. Bit of a bonus for tomorrow. Wonder if I'd be in the sweet spot in AberG
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So now there is an Easterly showing!!! We've been here before haven't we? Strat thread is also 'warming' up. Ummmm. head down for the next few days and lets see what the state of play is come Saturday.
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Consternation in the Mod thread. This is fascinating. Mildies and Coldies unite in confusion over the coming week. 27th - 28th It is going to be gripping to see what plays out and what follows.
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My parents talk about that. They were at the Langland Hotel when it started. Got out just in time to make it back to Morriston.
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Nope no-one should be so easily taken in by the models. Even the mild lovers. Following on from Sams post. If we were to return to a bog standard Atlanic driven period surly the models would have found the solution easier and quicker? Is the sign of the AO and NAO going neg to neutral playing havoc with them? Is potential Strat warming having an impact? The flip flopping seems too chaotic to bring us back to SWly Atlantic weather.
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Thanks Sam for the post...and true to form things have flipped again this morning. Despondency in the Mod thread. Something is definitely brewing but...what, we will have to have patience to find out
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The bipolar angst of the mod thread continues. The coldies loving the ECM and 06GFS....but as always the love is for charts outside the reliable time frame and aways things out a few days into the future. Last week it was all about the snow around Boxing Day onwards now it's the snow around New Years Eve. I'm trying not to get dragged in but it's compelling stuff.
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I also think the MetO don't wish to get egg in their face as its still only @ t192 before any real cold starts showing. Lots of ramping going on which I love but I'm also a little cautious. I agree with waiting until Sunday.
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The models certainly seem to be firming up on something colder around Xmas Day onwards. How deep the cold is and whether it is likely to bring snow to the UK should firm up in the coming days.
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Oh go on then...I'll ramp a bit. Snow Xmas Eve in North and Mid Wales??
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Yep. There is certainly lots of happy coldies in the Mod thread this morning and a few grumpy mild rampers. Fingers crossed the models continue the trend and things firm up in a couple of days time. If those set-ups continue to show in the reliable time frame then this place will go into melt down.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
Blackjack replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good to see Tamara "knocking" a post
