Matty M

Slightly improved angle from a cold perspective for the southeast of England as compared to this morning's EC run but still very much a similar trend and no shift back towards the easterly runs we saw over the last few days.

One person is an experienced meteorologist; the other person is not

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

I personally never doubt the NAVGEM

This evening's update should not come as a surprise considering this mornings EC ENS There is now strong support for the flow next weekend to have some sort of westerly component. Beyond that could support for a notherly. ENS 15 dayer for Reading

Definite trend developing tonight. Let's see can EC follow. Will surely be an interesting weekend of model watching if it does.

18z EURO4 look fairly sharp Expecting flash ambers in the AM

Will Deirdre be born tonight? Would not like to be on shift in the MetO tonight.

Yep 18z ARPEGE shows a higher resolved version of the ECMWF 12z pretty much. Brutal for parts Britain. Not sure about the shape of that low though tbh.

Looking at the latest satellite representation this could be a major deal and evidence that nowcasting and real human meteorology is needed.

Haven't posted here in a long time. The feature to the southwest has me very interested as I feel the models are playing serious catch up with this feature. Latest EURO4 looks very concerning for portions of Irish Sea coasts and particularly northern England into the lunchtime. Looking at latest satellite imagery and the trend of this system, the data sparse region it is passing through I would not be at all surprised to see the system develop more markedly than illustrated by the EURO4. One to watch tonight.

UKM @ 96hr is a thing of near perfection

ICON looks great at T96hr, we are already into the feed...

The EC EPS mean 850hPa chart @ 168hrs is something exceptional

Yes - a sublime ICON at 120hrs... Certainly fast forwards the cold - what we want to see

The 18z suite will not provide too much extra info for us.

They do not have access to MOGREPS as far as I know or the UK HIres. They use the EURO4 and EC as basis for their forecast and MOS. Briefing documents from the UK with the above data are distributed to most major met institutions but the raw data is expense and is as far as I know - not used by MG.

The ECMWF model cannot advect showers inland sufficiently. This is known and accepted fact, it is why HIRES models are used to forecast convective activity.

Brutal - historic cold advancing west @ 192hrs.... It is a while away and a little too far out for my liking but boy- this is a sensational chart.... We don't see this often...

Patience needed from all I feel. Looking at the output the beast will come but we will have to wait ~7 days. It may well be an historic late cold push but we are probably best advised to take 2-3 days off the model watching for the sake of our sanity.

It should pan out well - but this really is a longterm rollercoaster. Many many many more runs and then if it gets into the 72hr timeframe - we have to start looking at the finer details. An exhausting 10 days ahead.

The intra model differences are just ludicrous.... I mean I don't think I have seen the likes since that phantome easterly around 6 or 7 years ago?

Just jumped out on Meteociel now

In work.

Shortwave over Low countries deeper, easterly feed into eastern England by 6pm Monday.