Matty M

EC out to 90hrs and certainly looks no worse than last nights run - in fact a little better... The plot thickens.

EC delayed by approx 1hr due to tech issues. Apparently issue with observation data.

Looks like heights will finally rise across Greenland by late Feb ensuring a very cold end to the winter. But back to the more important thing, the prospect of FRONTAL snow for eastern Ireland tonight. A very very rare event.

Central depth estimated near 972hPa

Beginning to think this storm will be stronger for Ireland than anticipated. Deepening sooner and faster than pronged. I fear widespread infrastructural damage from Mayo to Dublin commencing 1am in west

EURO4 12z is rolling out and notably quicker with deepening of Doris...

Looking like this will be a major new headline tomorrow.. It has gone a little under the radar with all the hype surrounding weather events in recent months. Hopefully nobody has become too complacent. It could be really disruptive across a large swathe of the UK tomorrow. Model output is beginning to intensify things also which is what I feared. This could well be a major storm event.

Centre of Doris is visible on latest satellite imagery...

Looks very bad for NW England. Mersey /Wirral getting a hammering. Poss. 85/90mph gusts along coast. And as it exits into North Sea lee mountain gusting could bring some very damaging gusts to East Yorkshire

Doris now moving into the window of the HIRES models so we shall see how much of a sting it has. Looks set to 'bomb' around 35hPa in 24 hours. It really is progged to deepen very rapidly and when it begins this phase will determine where is worst affected. I believe it may begin to bomb sooner than low res models currently predict. It is disappointing that the region the storm is coming from is so data sparse. You would hope that we would have had deep ocean buoys at this stage. Hopefully satellite data will be sufficient to give the HIRES model the correct initial conditions and not lead to too many surprises.

Hello Doris! Certainly sting jet potential in this one but still lots of uncertainty as when it begins explosively developing will greatly determine its track. Looks nasty for NW England

EC 12z especially ominous showing rapid cyclogenesis with centre dropping over 30hPa in 24 hours....

Really bewildered at lack of interest here! Doris will be named in AM and likely most disruptive of winter season.

Let us not ignore developments around 60-84hrs with potential for a very disruptive wind-storm to sweep eastwards across the spine of the UK.... Storm rapidly deepening during passage will bring potential for Storm force winds in Irish Sea and gusts from 60-70kt in parts...large swathe of inland 50kt gusts. Likely the worst storm of the year. Doris is coming at last!

Are people asleep at the wheel here!? Looks like a stormy day on Thursday, probably the most severe storm of the season. Doris is finally on her way.

ENS show growing risk of shortwave dropping south over Ireland Saturday ala UKM.... Eastern portion of precip would be snow gold.

Who says it has been performing abysmally? Statistics wise it has been the best verifying model.

I think the 96hr UKM chart drops a shortwave south across Ireland/west Scotland into Wales....by around 108hrs... then exiting south allowing the easterly to flow in by 120hrs.

UK just delays the progression west a little. Perhaps a disturbance in the flow? Could be interesting but I cannot determine that from data I have. 120 is good.

I know that the inter day consistency looks dire from the perspective of the UK.... but if an alien came down and examined those two charts I am fairly certain they would say 'good job'. As they are really very similar. Obviously though the difference is huge for the UK.

Very cold by Friday, with some light snow grain/flurries likely to begin to edge into east of Ireland from Irish Sea....more intense showers likely along east coast of UK.

A solid start to the EC. Nothing spectacular but looks probably better for cold prospects at this point (72hrs) than the other 2 major models.

UK GM 144 is a very cold chart. Snow showers hitting east coast of Ireland too

UKMO 120hrs is a good chart. Nice clean chart. GFS looks very mess to the SW.

Model output is looking increasingly interesting. A little too early to get very excited. However, if we can get some cold air advected from the north-east there is the potential for some cracking thunderstorms rolling in off the warm seas and certainly and snow certainty cannot be ruled out in places. Tonight's EC will be interesting. It has been a long time since i last posted on here