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Matty M

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Everything posted by Matty M

  1. Matty M
    6z GFS has round two for Scotland even worse
  2. Matty M
    The storm to approach Scotland on Friday AM is very severe, expect to see some 100mph gusts going by late Hirlam output.
  3. Matty M
    Holy Moly
  4. Matty M
    GFS P still going for mega storm to approach the UK around next Wednesday, could be a long few days if this keeps getting progged Hard to take anything too seriously at this juncture though but potential for something exceptional
  5. Matty M
    GFS throws a sig low across Scotland Saturday morning.. This is after gales the previous morning. UKM 96hr charts looks ominous to me... http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010512/UW96-21.GIF?05-17 And it is, runs a big mammoth storm off the west coast of Ireland and into Scotland
  6. Matty M
    Low beginning to look quite impressive/ interesting on the Infrared imagery, beginning to wind up. http://www.sat24.com/image2.ashx?region=gb&ir=true
  7. Matty M
    Low rapidly intensifying now down to 997hPa, expect big increase in winds over southern areas in next few hours.
  8. Matty M
    NMM update later will be very interesting, winds for me are an increasing concern, I think we could see gusts to 70mph along the southeast coast near 6am. 60mph possible for Greater London in the wrap around. Pressure gradient is quite tight.
  9. Matty M
    A 56mph gust or a 56km gust? 56mph seems far too high?
  10. Matty M
    Expect to see some gusts to 60mph in the Greater London area and south-east around 6am tomorrow with the low a little deeper than forecast. Could be a squally morning with a mix of sleet and snow showers and gusts to 50/60mph
  11. Matty M
    With the low further north than forecast and deeper, potential for more significant winds for south-east England tomorrow morning.
  12. Matty M
    Didn't think the precip would track that far into NI, possibly a little further north than currently EURO4 shows. But that could also mean more cold air advection when the wrap around clears from the southEast early tomorrow.
  13. Matty M
    EURO4 has shifted precip a bit further north than the 0z. Some quite strong winds into the southeast early tomorrow.
  14. Matty M
    Yea very borderline, machine says 1-3cm.
  15. Matty M
    Looks like a line from suffolk to north Hereford northwards to see 3-8cm of snowfall. 8cm for you.
  16. Matty M
    Latest NMM shifts snow line around 30 miles further south, unfortunately London needs another 80 mile southern correction!
  17. Matty M
    Still crucial differences between EC, UK and GFS, EC being the middle track so used for gudance
  18. Matty M
    Wouldn't take too much to pull this into a sig snow event for central England - Current thinking is it will be a >200m job for most.
  19. Matty M
    GFS 18z really going for snow chance for central areas Saturday AM
  20. Matty M
    Can't access ECMWF snow data at the moment? What is the snow level across the south for Boxing Day night for anyone with access?
  21. Matty M
    Yea if the St. Stephen's Day low keeps getting pushed south there is a chance of some snow to low levels in the midlands/central England, especially with the heavy nature of the precipitation. However, it will likely be hilly areas that are the ones affected as the airmass just isn't that cold, however as I alluded to the heavy precipitation and potential evaporative cooling could allow for snow to fall to low levels. One to watch for certain, with the risk increasingly moving south.
  22. Matty M
    The long term is look very interesting, disregarding the upcoming potential for a wintry mix across the UK. The signs are that the polar vortex will to some extend split... which will leave us in a great position come early January, could be a very cold spell mid-month. Hopefull the signal continues and we get on the right side of the blocking.
  23. Matty M
    P20 or P5 please
  24. Matty M
    A bit of a cheeky upgrade of the easterly from the GFS
  25. Matty M
    Yea it's almost like there was some human input in the initialisation to correct some bias, but probably not
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