PolarWarsaw

Great set of charts on the whole today. However, words of caution required. - We have been here before, with better background signals and 'missed out' despite charts showing great scenarios. - Tonight's ECM/GFS are pretty much the MAX/VERY BEST you could get out of these synoptics. The chance of them coming off as shown is 10%< - What MUST we focus on? - Getting the cold in first. Get the cold, the snow generally follows. Don't get the cold in and you have nothing. That last point is aimed at anyone focusing too heavily on whether individual runs are showing much in the way of PPN. Anyone who has experienced any cold weather knows by now....get the cold in...snow chances follow...no matter how big or small. Cautiously optimistic tonight about a cool down next week...hopeful of what the charts are showing...realistic in keeping those hopes down though. It's still a VERY long way away in meterological terms and there's so much to go wrong..

Looks like Parts of New York, Buffalo, the Great Lakes, Oswego etc could be in the firing line for some proper Lake Effect Snow in the next 7-10 days.. THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL. DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION... SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Talk of some places adding 3-5" PER DAY for the next week or so from the weekend....staggering really! A pretty active pattern in general coming up over much of North America....

During the last couple of days we have seen things trend away from a colder/snowier scenario, into a worryingly wet one. That's not good for any of us at the moment. I can't remember seeing such an amount of lying water on roads that don't normally have problems. I really feel for the people of Northern England and Scotland at the moment. I do think as many have pointed out in this and the strat thread that the vortex is coming under increasing pressure and is likely to weaken at some point in the next 2-4 weeks. We could potentially end up with another very cold March. That's just my opinion anyway. Happy New Year everyone!

Big Tornado in Texas last night...not good at all! 11 confirmed as dead. EF3/4 damage.

Not looking good in Holly Springs. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Tj58drT2zYg

Big TOG west of Mississippi.

Yep. I see Greg Forbes has issued a TOR:CON of 7 for a couple of areas - only the third time he has done that this entire year - that's not good in the last couple of days before Christmas at all. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL318 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ONWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY....DISCUSSION...WITH DISRUPTIVE GULF CONVECTION OUR OF THE PICTURE...THE MAINQUESTION AT THIS POINT IS RELATED TO STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.FORTUNATELY STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE VERY ISOLATED AS THE STRONGESTFORCING BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH.MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAPID NORTHWARDSURGE OF A WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WAVE OF EARLYMORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT LEAST A FEW MODELS INDICATE THEPOSSIBILITY OF NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH ASBIRMINGHAM BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOW-LEVELCONFLUENCE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THEMORNING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ANISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT ANYWHEREACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.THE LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS SETUP ARE TIED TO A TENDENCY FOR500 MB HEIGHT RISES AND A LACK OF LIFT. 200 MB DIVERGENCE ANDLOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEWSUPERCELLS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. Ominous.

Well this is as painful modelling as....oh last winter. Is it me or have the models provided virtually nothing but pure frustration for most of 2015 - in all seasons? Obviously it's only the first day of winter officially today - but if there's no change at some point in the next 2 and a half months or so, the last 2-3 winters will have provided literally 2 attempts at snow in low lying England - utterly pathetic for those of us wanting seasonal and proper weather for each quarter of the year. For those that counter that with 'its rarely hot in summer either' - at least it's sunny and dry some of the time - us winter folk can't even get a bloody frost. Obviously there are factors against this part of the earth getting cold spells for prolonged or frequent periods, but to me, it just feels like the entire swathe of charts, the analysis, the strat, 5 different models etc that we have available these days are taking away the 'over night' flip ability, or the 'catch you by surprise element' of the models away and affecting/dampening the mood of the thread. It certainly feels like everytime someone has a positive comment to make, they have a chart, or a link, or a piece of writing thrown back in their face. For sure, everything we have these days are brillant for educational purposes and they do definetely enhance the technical ability of our forecasts - which can only be a plus, however, for me, it takes away some of the fun. I liken it to the good old days of being a wrestling fan as a child... no internet, no spoilers...everything that happened felt 'real' - these days we are bombarded by taped programming, spoilers and the internet...taking away the fun, even though you can't help but 'see' the spoilers you know will ruin your fun? (Or would have 15 years ago). Reading this thread tonight, you could/would effectively as a novice, come in and go away with the notion that you can effectively write off the next 2-3 weeks for cold weather and then come back to see if things changed. That wouldn't have happened a decade ago...AND YET..we are no further ahead now than we were 10 years ago in producing a 2 week forecast..says it all really.. Still, plenty of turkey, alcohol and family to enjoy in the next week or so folks. Enjoy - and have a good one.

Huge West/East split again through the US for christmas week. Record mild down the eastern seaboard and then there is literally a split down the centre of the country, toward the west where a whole list of states could receive a massive snowfall.

The output can only really be considered as boring and totally atrocious with regards to seasonal weather. It's very painstaking and dull watching isn't it at the moment? If roles were reversed then it would be people sitting through the summer months enjoying 'record breaking cold weather' - unfortunately, it doesn't help anybody (bar the heating bills). Netweather traffic down, the MOD thread very, very quiet during it's peak season can't be good for website ads and traffic. Meh. Here is hoping something can change soon or else this may go down as one of the worst seasons ever for Netweather and the MOD thread.

Warmth on one side...and chilly on the other. Denver with it's second 5" snowfall in 3-4 days today - bit of a giveaway for the mile high city, but Wyoming, Utah, even Nebraska in for snow today. Great contrasts once again.

A Summary of tonight's model output.... I'm Moving to Siberia.

3-6" of snow likely in Denver tommorow with more like 8-18" for the Boulder area and peaks. Minor warm up on Sunday before another slightly 'bigger' looking system sweeps through next midweek. It will be something like Denver's 5-6th accumulating snow of more than 3" already - it's not even mid December yet. Massively warm temps in some parts and huge snowfalls in other - such a contrasting climate over a Country.

Just looking at the models, there is quite a good chance of a swathe of snow this weekend in some of the big western states of the US. The pacific appears to have system after system lined up for the NW - A couple of the big named cities such as Denver, Salt Lake City etc have a really good chance of 2-3 systems passing over them this weekend - starting Thursday with rain and switching to complete snow for Friday - Saturday and Sunday - the systems aren't huge, but combined they could put down some decent totals. Will get some charts and forecast links as they come into range. Such a fascinating country. Even if parts of the North and North East haven't had a single flake, there's been some big totals already just across the other side of the country.

Unreal considering it's such a torch/nino winter for them over there. The east has suffered, but really - it's been very snowy for the majority of areas that would normally expect it so far and it's barely every December! Incredible climate.

For anyone sick of the state of things closer to home, in what is turning into an ever more boring UK climate........ Well aren't the people Iowa rather lucky? After some parts got up to 18" of snow last week, they have another winter storm watch this evening as part of NW Iowa and the twin cities could get anywhere from 3-10" tommorrow from another storm moving northwards. It just seems like there is a storm to talk about in parts of the country a couple of times a week, even in such an El Nino state - it really is staggering how exciting the US climate is at all times - be it snow, storms the lot. Forecast link for IOWA - http://whotv.com/weather/ The Weather Channel's verdict - http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015 Certainly something to keep an eye on for coldies on NW as the climate at home continues to be predominantly dire if it's snow you are after.

Well aren't the people Iowa rather lucky? After some parts got up to 18" of snow last week, they have another winter storm watch this evening as part of NW Iowa and the twin cities could get anywhere from 3-10" tommorrow from another storm moving northwards. It just seems like there is a storm to talk about in parts of the country a couple of times a week, even in such an El Nino state - it really is staggering how exciting the US climate is at all times - be it snow, storms the lot. Forecast link for IOWA - http://whotv.com/weather/ The Weather Channel's verdict - http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015 Certainly something to keep an eye on for coldies on NW as the climate at home continues to be predominantly dire if it's snow you are after.

Well what started looking like only a sprinkling of snow in some of the western states has upgraded in the last day or so. Denver is expecting 3-6 inches of snow from late tonight through until Friday afternoon, whilst Salt Lake City and north into Wyoming are expecting to see a little more. Out of interest, it will be Denver's third snowfall in 3 weeks! Imagine if that continued every week...imagine if that was how things were back at home! Here is the local forecast > http://kdvr.com/weather/

Good read and thanks for the time and effort put in to supply us with the forecast! Seems like it's January or bust then!

Not according to yourself it didn't. There have been numerous postings for months now from yourself which could in effect have been a basic copy and paste post 4-5 times per day..Anomaly posted...chart by weatherbell....Westerly...Zonal. That's a very straight line look at the charts that are presented and as such, Anomaly's don't represent the nitty gritty details and then miss things at short notice. If I remember correctly, you dissapeared or didn't post for a couple of days (coincidence or not, who knows) when the colder period started showing - having previously not mentioned it and then did as much as possible to avoid it when you returned. If it isn't just one chart you looked at, it seems rather strange to pick the furthest chart out on any given model run and then post it as the back up to the point you are trying to make? Surely? Let's not derail the thread, but I just think the broadbush approach your consistent anomaly posting habbits show are very misleading. Anyway, some nice Siberian Heights on tonight's 18z. Something for any coldies to watch over with interest in the morning. Night folks.

I'm not at all saying that they aren't of some use, but they are just as flippant as deep FI is in a normal model run and they shouldn't be given anymore credibility than T300 is on this mornings 0z ECM. Sure they do look at things as more of a 'mean' point of view - but honestly, they fail to pick up on a short term events and little differing details.

With respect - these are the same Anomalies that didn't pick up the bitter period this weekend. If we were to go by the anomaly's you have posted for about the last 6 weeks, we would be deep into a zonal train with no end in site..when in reality there has been plenty to keep everyone interested. The reliance on these charts and all that they entail is predominantly futile and misleading, especially when truly into fantasy land like T360. If a coldy finds a chart at T360 they get buried (ironically) under all the ribs aimed at them.

Anywhere from 12 to 20 inches in parts of Iowa and Illinois in the last 24 hours or so...amazing. Chance of a surreal lake effect event for Buffalo again in the next day or 2.

Big flakes - coming down moderately now.

Icing sugar dusting on cars, roofs and long grass. To wet for roads and pavements. Savouring every flake and so we should do too. This is more snow than I've seen in the last 2 winters combined! The most since March 13. Just goes to show how super duper the last few years have been. Best get back to savouring it..could be the first and last flakes of the winter! Edit - Forgot last Boxing Day.