PolarWarsaw

The heavier stuff now arriving, bigger flakes. No way this goes on until midnight though. There's barely anything left south of Birmingham, unless by a miracle it pulls itself back together.

In fairness, they have a warning out for 2-5CM.... I think there may be mentions of 5-10 M too. The snow isn't falling fast enough to breach that, so they are probably thinking it's well within the threshold of the warning and doesn't need updating.

Tonight is going to be all about getting in the dark blues/greens. Any extended period of time under those is going to see accumulations getting much bigger, much quicker. A few miles down the road in the lighter shades are going to struggle for a covering. Eyes on the 'green zone' to my south. If that stays with its intensity and stalls for numerous hours. Then the calls of 5-10CM look good, if it doesn't - a lot of people are going to be in the lower end of 1-5CM.

Heavier period of snow here, turning everything white again. Roads too busy and wet to stick there though - need that dark to come over and some intense PPN not long after. 1 more round of chaos? What's the harm.

Forecasting timings on snow is literally almost impossible, as we saw yesterday and have seen all week. You need to keep an eye on radar and forget warnings, apps, delayed TV forecasts. Some of the models show it stalling over the midlands until after midnight...if it's any slower than that it will be the early hours. Radar is your friend.

Later the better IMO.

Hi MIA. Located in Rugeley, about 25 miles NNW of Birmingham city centre and 7 or so miles south of Stafford.

The band is supposed to pull together and organise as it comes north. Anyone thinking it's going to be Armageddon with Orange on radar is badly mistaken, it's a weak affair with patches of heavier stuff - you just need to hit the jack pot there. I'm hoping it comes later, when it's dark. That way it's going to stick. There's a thaw going on as we speak - if it falls this afternoon in daylight there's no chance of accumulation. We need that wind to slow down or else it will be a repeat of yesterday. Not expecting much here, south of Birmingham again today.

My thoughts precisely, lots of springs in SSW years have been cold, chilly and extended winter (albeit not cold enough for lowland snow). After a record breaking SSW I really do think it could be a very chilly spring, by spring standards (not snowy, before people start accusing me of working for the Express ). It will definitely be interesting to see if this spring follow suite. If it does, then you would have to build a case for a Jan/Feb SSW being linked to a very cold spring. Here is hoping anyway....It will be mild enough aplenty for all in the....you know....the next 8 out of 10 months of this year. We can all wait a few more weeks!

So attention turns towards tomorrow now then....let's see what the 18z says. Both the BBC forecasts (local and national) seemed quite bullished of 2-5CM widespread tomorrow evening...let's see.

As we saw at the end of March 2013....late season SSW's don't tend to favour ANY sort of mild spring, let alone one in early march. I suppose this year will be a learning curve, given we have just seen a record SSW. I wouldn't be surprised either way our weather tended, but my own personal thoughts are that it will be the very back end of April before jackets and jumpers can go back in the closed compartment of the wardrobe for a few months. It's been quite a dry winter too, certainly in different months. A nice wet summer would go down a treat, especially if it involved thunderstorms aplenty. I do fancy a very typical 'Polar squally showers' kind of spell throughout April also. Should be one for the convective cameras.

Not being funny mate...but there's a lesson in itself and a note to everyone! DO.NOT.USE.AUTOMATED.APPS.IN.COLD.AND.SNOWY.SPELLS. They swap and change based on a computer....no human actually edits these symbols. They are beyond useless, it's basically like playing a game of 'will the weather symbol change when I refresh or not'.

It's been a very good day so far - can't believe how such slow snowfall rates could not only stick to main roads and cause chaos, but could also cover over previously gritted areas. Just goes to show how cold the air/ground is. Unfortunately, the front is really noticeable taking a left turn out towards the west now, the snowfall has virtually stopped at this point and I can't see it returning with any sort of vigour. That being said, we have 7-8CM's in areas untouched by the winds and drifts of almost 2 ft to exposed fences. If this had been 100 miles NE, we'd have been talking about one for the ages. Can anyone back up Shefali's thoughts regarding Tomorrow/Saturday/Sunday with any sort of PPN charts? Seems outlandish to me, other than perhaps tomorrow.

This is pretty much what I'm looking for. Anyone due north of Birmingham or east, you want the eastern side of the PPN to expand as far eastwards as possible whilst retaining as much of its intensity as possible. For example, I know that if we get any of the main band to say, Leicester, then it HAS to either completely evaporate or it will travel NNW right over Derbyshire, Staffordshire etc. So that's what I'm aiming for. When it gets dark, even snow of the intensity of today will start to cover side roads and foot paths again. The main 'event' as such was never going to arrive away from Hereford, Gloucester etc - so operation 'cream as much from the rest' is in full flow - how many do I have joining me? ?

This is the same Arpege that showed 15cms as far north as the south of Manchester and across to Derbyshire etc on the 12z yesterday though, which just goes to show the models have no clue. From all models and forecasts you can have a clear idea of the main plays of this system, BUT in terms of small IMBY semantics, as to whether it goes 50 miles east, north etc - then they are nowcasts. Please can we once and finally this afternoon, BIN APP or automated forecasts, they are less use than a chocolate fireguard that was erect in the middle of the desert.

What did the GFS show as it's progression throughout the rest of the day and it's PPN charts?

To be honest, I stepped outside and put s foot in the snow, to leave the concrete showing. Even with an hours snizzle the concrete is almost gone, which just goes to show. You really only need a few hours of 'heavy - light' snow to make things white over again by morning. Thats why include so interested in seeing how Far East we can build things. It won't take much to squeeze an extra cover to things out.

Thanks mate, you are a star! Its a shame BBC are so unreliable because that shows snow quite widespread north of Birmingham later.

That's why we need it to build and expand eastwards first, it will still have to move NNW. The further east it starts, the better.

For those north and east of Birmingham, you really want to see some PPN spreading, expanding and growing east of that right arrow if you are to see anything more than 'snizzle' later this evening. The overnight stuff wasn't heavy at all just persistent. If we can get something even less than moderate on radar then there's the potential for a couple of CM's to be added to anything lying now. Big radar watch there this afternoon.

Massive favour to ask anyone at home/on a desktop. Could someone take screenshots of the BBC national and midlands today forecast maps at 1.30 please? Also - does anyone have the time spare, to check out the HIRLAM, Arpege and GFS for the 3 hour PPN breakdowns between now and SATURDAY PM - just so we can see how they look, see when looks favourable for any PPN and to compare when it's all said and done? Would hugely appreciate that.

Indeed, if we are taking the 6z GFS as gospel - then that rise in temperatures won't be around for long. As above, the further north you go, the colder the graphs too.

To be honest, I was hoping Emma would be further east, but judging my radar and models. It's actually further west than originally thought - not east. All but guaranteeing a dry evening - CERTAINLY from brum northwards. All I can say is thank god for that streamer last night and this AM. Can't moan too much. But it's really so annoying how all of the 'main events' have missed us as a region. You do have to wonder with tomorrow's potential system whether this may occur again then and really stick a knife where it hurts.

In short, no. Expect some light flurries on and off through today and tomorrow. But little accumulation and no heavier stuff. Ironically, Cannock and Staffordshire etc - one of the worst places in the country for snow today or tomorrow.

For the benefit of @Staffordshire Thats the bin in my back yard. Seemed to accumulate quite well this AM.