PolarWarsaw

Same old, same old in both the models and in the behaviour of some in this thread. I've said it once and I will say it again, sometimes as much as it is fun, having models that go out to T384 is not useful for expectations and people's hopes. Naturally, such is human nature people start getting excited and taking what are, in effect explorative computerised patterns seriously. However, to have a far more 'balanced' view of things people NEED to start understanding that until we have cross model agreement from ALL, or MOST models at T72 then take absolutely everything with a huge pinch of salt. Given what is and has gone on in the atmosphere in the last few weeks, that theory is even wiser right now than it ever normally is. Take nothing away from what's been modelled today though - we have missed the boat again. From the second that the ECM showed a downgrade and an edging of the pattern last night, it was clear that a back track was almost inevitable. The toy throwing though, is indeed, silly. I'm still optimistic that we will stay on the right side of cold in the next few weeks and if you haven't all taken 1 thing from this winter....day 10 never verifies! Plenty to play for and for all of those overlooking in search of a nirvana...at T72 we have a potential snow event, that could be fairly widespread to at least monitor. Keep the toys in the undercarriage for now....

No mate - I only post during the winter times, but a few faces will remember me! To jog your memory, I live in Rugeley! You may remember me under my old username, Radders. I was only playing in fairness, I just want some weather to chase - endless days of dry and still weather do nothing for me, I find summer painfully boring unless we have big storms to play with. None of that this year! I can see @MattStoke is still around - does @Staffordshire still post?

Do you ever shower or bathe mate? You seem to be particularly against harmless water droplets falling from the sky! Just playing! 2018 was VERY dry and should winter continue in this vein then we will be struggling big time in summer with a drought on our hands, there will be plenty wishing for rain then! Overall though, it's nothing to do with that. Endless dry days with no actual WEATHER grew boring in about...June! So let's have some active weather if we can't get snow in - the weather is after all, what we are all on this forum for! Good health to you mate.

Hi Paul, Sorry to be a pain - I just spent 30 minutes typing a post out, only to press submit and then see the old thread was no longer open to replies. It said 'saving post' - but when I tried to paste it into this thread, nothing appears? Has the post been lost now? Thanks. Plenty to be optimistic about this evening, but the ECM has been a cold spell front runner - to see it fall apart so quickly this evening is a big concern. Everyone however, should take a step back and not be so concerned about single OP runs - these 12 GFS nirvana runs are fantastic to view, but have about 0.5% chance of verifying, do NOT get excited by these, but enjoy them for what they are - computer generated presentations running on highly volatile and constantly changing atmospherics in our world that NOBODY has a good grip on. My glass is 50% full still this evening, as always - but those who got the hopes of something memorable need to be VERY wary of tonight's ECM - it appears to be on to something new. What a pleasure it is to be posting again. A happy and belated prosperous 2019 to all!

Evening all, 1st post of the season so far. What an utterly horrendous and painfully boring year 2018 was after mid March. Horrendous summer, full of cloudy and unbearable days. Horrific. This winter so far has been the 'looks great at day 10 winter' - so it's nice to report some falling flakes of snow here a couple of hours back. Next week is all up in there at the moment, it looks like a pattern change on tonight's ECM - the front runner of this cold spell, let's hope not though. I'm not sure how many more people have the patience to sit and wait another 2 weeks for the next 'chance'. Glass half full, lets see what the next 2 weeks have for us. PS - Can I just say, if I read 1 more post that says 'least it's dry though' - I'm going to self combust. The last years been dry, this country needs rain and dry weather is bloody boring!!! PS x2 - Great to see some of the regulars posting as always! PS X3 - Belated and prosperous new year to you all!

All moving in a west bound trajectory. Absolutely agonising.

Mate, if you run the 3.30-4.30 Netweather radar loop, it's actually harder for this entire storm to have missed us 2 than it is to have not. It's skirted, moved, back built and moved again and basically spent the entire of the last hour rumbling in the distance outside my bed room window! Its a complete joke. Looking forward to hearing reports as this would have been a treat.

I can see the storm heading for Cannock, out of my window. It looks mean. The rumbling is constant, it's going to be a miss for us but a great storm for anyone in its path. The rumbling isn't stopping, there is no gap. thus is going to be a memorable one for those in line. Can't remember hearing so much unbroken grumbling. Not unless the dingles lose and WM is on anyway.

I can see the storm heading for Cannock, out of my window. It looks mean. The rumbling is constant, it's going to be a miss for us but a great storm for anyone in its path. The rumbling isn't stopping, there is no gap.

Not to moan at all, but somewhere in a line from Birmingham to Crewe/Manchester are going to stay dry tonight, between the front from the south and the light stuff that's been over northern England for most of the day. Frustrating gap. I'd say there's the potential of another CM or 2 from about Cambridge west/SW through to Cheltenham and for everyone South and east of there.

Ahhhh so you were referencing your own back yard when you told us ALL not to get excited folks. 2-3 inches here, at just a measly 80m ASL. Superb.

How did your 0-2CM max totals work out mate? Snow starts to fall again....for the 6th day of March - gloves and scarves out folks!

Just walked back from a friends. A good couple of inches. Up to half a foot if not more drifts. The curbs have merged into the roads. There wasn't a tire track in sight, moderate snow falling in a wind. It was like I had the entire of the world to myself. Epic. Not bad for a 0-2CM max event is it? Midlands wide. I have to say, this is the overachiever of winter. Another great day to add to a long list of events this winter. Saviour it, we have had more snow and more events to chase this winter than I can remember combined since my memory lasts. The best winter I can remember in my lifetime (although I can only remember as far back as say 2000) - this really has been epic. It's hard to imagine the thought of going back to Atlantic driven dross for winters to come. This one has been a blast, I hope everyone has enjoyed it as these don't come round frequently at all.

Exactly what I thought, no signs of snow anywhere down in rugeley. Odd patch on the grass and roofs. Going to stay snow cover free.

Turning colder out there now. Somewhere between Stafford and stoke is about to have a treble hit from an intense line of showers. Will leave a proper covering that. Just too far south here at the minute. Hopefully that doesn't remain the same all evening.

Strange thing to say, but I'd like the showers to die off until sun down. They are melting immediately and leaving puddles on the main road. Where the suns sheltered, any snow is still there. But I'd like it to dry out before dark and then there's a better chance of anything falling leaving a covering. Still not expecting to see any snow sticking but this all today is a huge bonus. Glad Matt has copped it today.

Thankfully, this weekend and what looks like a 'non entity of a spring' are more than enough of a bonus for us cold folk who have lapped this winter up. Long term charts show another shot of cold air next week and then April looks predominantly below average....more winter gloves than gardening. Anyway, after feeding the mild troll. The fax charts don't look quite as good as they did the 2 days ago with the updated faxes showing a streamer over the humber and E Yorkshire rather than the wash - I expect the amber warning to be moved northwards. However, much like the other week, showers will form anywhere for a 36 hour period and everyone is with a shout of seeing falling snow. Accumulating? Not sure. Big depths? Very unlikely. Still an absolute bonus, it's been an amazing winter of accumulating snow, snow falling, frost, general cold weather - plenty more of the latter to come before a quick transition from spring to summer at the end of April and into May. Only 4 months of possible warmth there before we are back into the winter hunt, come the end of September. It's been a great winter and my advice is for everyone to have A) Savioured it and B) Enjoy any falling snow you see this weekend. We need the transition of rain to snow to be quick tonight or the ground will be too wait for anything to settle. Best chance of settling snow comes from sun down tomorrow to sun rise Sunday. Just another light covering to see snow in the dark cover the streets again would be the cherry on the cake of a superb winter. To those wishing spring in....start your search for summer. It's going to be another chilly/predominantly cold/interspersed with milder spells 4-6 weeks or so. Have a good one all!

Heaviest snow of the week bar tues/weds showers. Big flakes. Heading on for 2CM. Roads white over. Snow is wetter tonight.

Heaviest snow of the week bar tues/weds showers. Big flakes. Heading on for 2CM. Roads white over. Snow is wetter tonight.

Day 5 of falling and accumulating snow. White over again. A CM or so added.

What do we think about later tonight? GFS Showing a small period of snow again this evening...one last hurrah? I wouldn't put the jacket and scarf away just yet either looking at the output....a record breaking SSW will probably bring us a chilly spring overall. Remember in 2013....it's snowed heavily and covered for a couple of days in the final few days of March....it's not completely off the table.

Patches of more intense PPN on both the SW and SE side of the band now....need that to continue as it moves north.

Patches of more intense PPN on both the SW and SE side of the band now....need that to continue as it moves north.

Mini blizzard flakes falling now....need to get some of the heavier stuff before this falls apart completely.... Pushing over a CM/2 or so again now.

Even though we have been in some of the heavier echoes for over an hour, there's barely half a CM of extra accumulation. Given the band is on it's last legs according to radar, bar the odd area, you can see why not a lot was made of this. Can we get anymore tomorrow? Eyes on next weekend. I'm treating this as the last snow of this season and in the UK, who knows how long - so I'm going to enjoy it, light or heavy and have a walk in it later!