PolarWarsaw

White out in the last half hour, all white over. Another shower following but it looks bleak on radar thereafter.

Heads up for Hednesford, Cannock, Burntwood. 1st proper shower candidate in the next 30 minutes. Looks to graze rugeley. Only moderate at best, but it should help things turn white.

This time yesterday we had a NE flow....when Lincolnshire looked 'average'. Today we switch to a SE wind direction and wouldn't you just take a look to the NE....meanwhile looking SE.....enough to make you laugh.

Well, apparently - today's yellow warning has been spread slightly further west over central areas for showers....be interested to see how that plays out. Interesting that it now looks like tomorrow night when we may get in on some sort of act (potentially) - for those north of Birmingham - another 50-100 mile shift northwards is needed.

Morning all, Things really have panned out horribly for us in the central and north midlands, yesterday's showers fell before the peak of cold and thus mostly melted. Then overnight the winds shifted keeping most of us dry. This morning I awake to take a look at the radar and all the showers are angled horribly for Staffordshire, Shropshire etc - most of the region, either dying away before getting in land or shooting up through the Cambridgeshire and NW up into eastern Derbyshire and up towards Yorkshire. Can only see a bone dry day again for most - particularly concerning with what is looking like happening over the weekend. Strange to say it now but all history/precious experience tells us any front will struggle piling north with any intensity. I won't go down the 'bust' route as that's just stupid, but this event being memorable for anything other than frustration now looks <10% for 95% of the midlands. The narnia charts just never produce what we want in these type of scenarios unfortunately. Have a good day all.

I must admit, that 18z gave me the first real 'pit of the stomach churn' - even by my low expectations for this week, not even December's events could take away the bitter taste of seeing literally every inch of the country plastered in some decent cover or snow bar a very small swathe right in our back yards. Lets hope the fact it's 3 days away will see big changes...all this hoping to stay cold that our southern friends are banging on about, is simply ruining a fun breakdown, by giving us a painful, slow warm up to the point where snow will be too marginal, all so they can hog our beloved white stuff.

Indeed, it just hasn't fallen for us this week. To be honest, I find it very hard to wax lyrical over any showery setup, let alone one from the 'coast that's further away' - you have to be so lucky to catch a heavy shower, or get in a 'train of them', they have to fall at a good time of day because they aren't persistent. It's one of the main reasons I struggled to get excited over this week. The west/central/sw midlands are probably amongst the 3 or 4 worst regions in the entire of Britain to be in during an easterly/north easterly, regardless of the strength of the wind, convection, etc - we are just too far inland to get a consistent rash of streaming showers, or any significant cover like those on the coast or just inland do, much like NE England/Scotland are having now and have had tomorrow - this kind of thing favours them. It is just my personal experience of course, but I find it hard to get excited by anything other than a proper North-Westerly driven Cheshire gap streamer, a Channel low or a slider. These are most efficient for bringing snow to this region and the rest brings, well, not a lot - unless you get lucky, troughs form or snow falls of a night time. I think this winter will probably be remembered for the 'tough and go setups' that delivered, rather than the pretty charts that didn't quite make it. But this winter has been a LOT better than all of the last 5, so it's hard to be too downbeat. Fingers crossed, something pops up early in the morning and brings us some more before the attention turns to Friday. Edit - Hideous looking GFS for snow this weekend. Whenever it can go wrong during widespread cold events...it really does. Only 1 run, but let's see where we are tomorrow night. A lot of the snow starved folk in this thread need to cross everything that we get something significant from this, or else that COULD be it for winter 17/18 - with the air modifying next week and being marginally too mild for snow, even if it is likely to stay a little chilly at the surface. Fingers crossed all.

Unfortunately the winds start to turn more ESE through the night and into tomorrow, which is why the attention is focused on NE England and Eastern Scotland as this flow favours them....I'd wager that's where virtually all of that convection will be heading, leaving us with flurries tomorrow....(hopefully I'm wrong) - but I wouldn't be pinning any hopes on this saving us to be honest.

Highly irritating but the way the winds have shifted slightly has completely ruled getting any showers through the NE Midlands/Derby down into Staffordshire tonight. I was watching showers line up from Lincoln and hit us head on this afternoon, but things have shifted slightly more easterly and about a 100 mile dry zone has opened up on the coast from Hull south to the top of the wash - unfortunately, the exact building/landing zone we need it in to produce for Birmingham northwards. Very annoying as if tonight had fallen with a bit of luck, then it was the chance to get something more significant.

Hello mate, how have you been keeping? Well I hope. Yeah, was a slow start but we got a train of showers in the evening that left us with a couple of CM's - 1 of a couple of good streamers that have set up from the NW this winter. Evening Bish, I hope you are well. Nice to see a couple of faces from a few years back. I hope you are well, I read your posts when you originally returned a couple of weeks back. That's me, about 200M's from the bloody thing! Can't miss it. It's out of commission now, so here is hoping that will help bring some extra snow! Back on topic - looking towards Lincoln/Nottingham for showers tonight, few on radar currently that seem to organised themselves into a little line of showers. Fingers crossed. Not holding my breath for Friday and Saturday, too far north and as we always find out, the further north you are in these scenarios the lighter and patchier the PPN seems to be - hope to be wrong though!

@MattStoke - inbound to the NE. Even if that's the last shower, whatever it deposits (looks good on radar) that will stick around until tomorrow with predominately clear skies. Just in time for sun down - the perfect example of what we all need to hope to catch if tonight is to deliver. Signs of the radar fading away already though and without convection apparent with the sun, no troughs forecast, it's going to be getting lucky on isolated flurries at best for 95% of us tonight (east fairing marginally better).

2nd shower of the day about an hour ago. Previous shower melted, into puddles, this shower stuck down close to another CM. For me, this is the most important 12 hours or so of the week now, away from the weekend which has the potential either way to bring snow, miss us, or bring snow followed by a thaw. It was obvious on Feb 11th that showers didn't settle all day, but as soon as the sun went down - they stuck immediately. Now today's have been heavy enough to stick during the day time. IF we can keep a few showers coming when the sun goes down, then it would only take a few light ones, or the odd heavy one to cause some drama in the morning on the roads AND most importantly see most of us wake up to a fresh covering and the potential to make the most of cameras. I know that sounds dramatic, BUT if that happens then this event/week has the potential to be a 'better than expected' effort, with the weekend up in the air. If it doesn't, then we are going to struggle unless the weekend comes off. Euro 4, the met etc see showers continuing after dark. My only concern is without the sun and in any convective episode that showers will be weaker from the coasts and either die out before getting inland. I did think tomorrow looked dry last night...although forecasts look a LITTLE bit better than they did then....reasons to be optimistic. But, and it is an IMO, tonight will define whether this week (not weekend) produces or not....hope I explained that properly.

Huge 15 minute blizzard there. Vision dropped below 100m's. Blown over but deposited a CM or so in quick time, all roads covered including main roads.

That's me, glad to see you around still. Mark is it? Still down in Rugeley, so just a stones throw away. Completely agree, but these are becoming few and far between these days. The Cheshire gap and/or a slider scenario normally come In clutch for us. I tend to find 'narnia' scenarios being modelled tend to work out well for the 'golden regions' but less so for us stranded in the middle of the country. Despite perhaps seeming downbeat above, I do believe we will all see falling snow on at least 1 other day this week....just whether it's significant and/or accumulating that is the big question!

NTGood evening all, Some of you may or may not remember me. Been locked out of my account for almost 2 years to the day having lost my password. With what's going on currently I couldn't help but find a way of getting back into my account again. Regardless, I have still watched and lurked as a guest virtually every single run since last October. First of all, I hope you are all well - great to see some of the familiar names in the thread still posting. This winter has been far better than those in roughly the last 5 years. We have had falling snow 12+ times, with 1 fall of 6-7 inches, 3 of 1 inch or more and a couple of coverings to go with that. A far superior winter than that of recent years. What a fascinating spell of model watching, the best I can remember since I have been part of weather forums on the net (roughly 2004 before the BBC forum closed down). Ironically, there was a few posts in particular that made me desperately want to get back on site. There has definitely been a few learning curves this winter - 1) Weather from the NW can bring snow, just like the good old days. 2) The West Midlands gets its best and most consistent snow from 'marginal' scenarios, normally the slider. 3) You don't need the holy grail to provide snow and cold. A few things that have definitely been lost chasing amazing looking charts in the last few years. Ironically, there was a few posts in particular that made me desperately want to get back on site and a couple of you that I wanted to quote directly, 1 person in particular. @MattStoke - I have been following your posts throughout the winter. I have found myself agreeing with virtually every word you have written in the MOD thread for a couple of months now. I noticed that you have only been part of the midlands forum for a year or so after a move from London. I've actually been worried for your sanity in the last couple of days with regards to the easterly - the West Midlands never does well in an easterly (unfortunately) and asmuch as I'd like to be wrong, I have had a worrying feeling for this week all the long. We look just too far south tomorrow, just too far west in a showery flow and history/experience from previous events tells us that the front moving up from the south this week will either A) Slide and not even make it, B) Bring milder air and progress through fast or C) Weaken out and barely bring a dandruff covering. Don't let this kind of thing get to you too much though, you will find much like in December that 'classic' setups or the 'holy grail' country wide don't do much for us, but then we take the big snows when areas to the south west + east struggle. Be sure to stick around, your input for a newbie to the region has been a welcome bonus as I have been lurking. That's not to say BTW we will all receive nothing though, all is definitely not lost, tomorrow is a huge day for learning purposes IMO and one that will provide a good example as to future reference when it comes to lake effect snow etc. IF we cant get a good number of HEAVY showers into the region tomorrow, with that level of convection, those winds and those uppers - then we might as well forget it. I do think tomorrow represents the best chance of the week when it comes to getting some of the heavier convective stuff over us....not forgetting the potential of a polar low slipping a few miles either way and bringing some snow. I do think there will be quite a low of showers around tomorrow, but it will be interesting either way - of course snow falling at night would benefit anyone wanting accumulations. Wednesday is looking dry at the minute, my gut feeling tells me that Thursday will be mostly dry as we sit in the cloudy zone - IE we are too close to the system to the SW to be clear enough to trigger any inland convection, but too far north to get any sort of significant frontal snow - I hope I am wrong, especially seeing as these scenarios have played nicely so far this winter and in recent years, but let's see. After that, who knows?! If we can stay on the cold side, we could be looking ahead to further snow, if we aren't - it would be nice to go out with a big bang. The best part of snow for me - is the watching it fall, the chaos of watching it stick and then the 12 or so hours after that, when the roads are silent, the snow is fresh and not untouched. After that though, I'm not too fussed about a thaw - so if we do see a fall followed by a thaw this weekend, that kind of suits me. Anyway, I have waffled on for far too long, it's great to be back. Some great posts in here this winter. I think the attitude this week needs to be one of 'whatever we get it's a bonus' rather than concerning ourselves with depths and 'will it or won't it' - we just aren't best placed in this part of the country. The model watching has been absolutely fascinating, borderline addicting and regardless of whether the pretty 850hpa charts convert into pretty picture outside the front window...we have been comparatively spoilt this winter and for that, we SHOULDNT be TOO down beat if this week doesn't lead to Narnia. Will do my best to pop in more regularly than every 2 years from now....bloody email passwords! Stay safe all + enjoy any snow that does fall.

Hi Paul, Thanks for the response - pretty sure I went through the Contact Us page. I have just submitted a ticket through the 'Click here to send us a message' tab on the link you sent above with old account name/details. Thanks.

Hi there, I haven't been able to login to my old account since the switch up a couple of months back. Attempted to send an Email to the official account of the website but for one reason or another haven't received any reply. My account name is 'Polar Warsaw' - it's attatched to an Email account I no longer have access to so could never verify my account. If someone could send me a PM and help me reset the password (Ajpoolshark will verify I am who I am) then that would be great. Thanks.

Reports of 11CM in down town Rochdale...that's not even high ground really.

It seems like at the last moment, the event moved 50/60 miles north and east. This really could/was looking like it could be us this morning, looking at pictures from city centre Manchester etc - really goes to show that if it had been over the top of us, it would have been snow virtually everywhere. Annoying as it's the last wintry hurrah this 'winter' too. Probably looking at waiting until at least November (and god knows how long after) to watch out for another snow event now.

Just absolutely blitzed down with huge flakes, the biggest I've seen for a few years. Slushy deposit on roof tops, car tops and sheds etc - just made the roads and pathways more puddle-filled than before - nice to see though.

Great few days until this evening, the last couple of weeks really haven't been that bad at all, cold but sunny days. Judging by virtually all reports in the MOD/Strat threat...high pressure and an E/NE flow are favoured right throughout March and into April. A very chilly/to cold outlook with a large potential for some harsh frosts. Hopefully lots of frosty cold days, some nice scenic views - perhaps the odd chance of a night snow event. Before we know it, it will be April and then the focus turns to the US Storm Chase season. As that ends, the EURO's start...and by the time they finish it's already pre-season and into August is the new season/cricket season + bam, then it's September and we are back with eyes on winter again! Can't wait. Let's see what next year has to offer. Let's keep it cold and frosty for as much of April as we can and look forward to an active/stormy Summer. Won't be long before the nights are back drawing in!!

As far as I can see/am aware - this is just a bog standard late winter affair, anticyclonic, cold and predominantly dry - with it always worth keeping an eye out on anything that could pop up suddenly or at the last minute and provide a little entertainment. Generally speaking, you get this kind of a spell at some point in virtually any and every late winter, normally between mid feb - mid march as that's when the vortex tends to commonly run out of steam. It's a chance for a period of frosts and some of the flooded regions of the country to dry up a little bit. If we get ANY snow, then it's a bonus. It will feel colder than it would because the background of this winter - in general has been, supremely mild weather. That being said, nobody should be downbeat - it's this kind of setup that does occasionally provide last minute surprises.

Chilly and predominantly dry week ahead then. Let's see if we can get the cold in and then keep it long enough to grab a surprise disturbance etc. Some nice frosts to come in the next 10 days or so.

Thanks for the insight Ian - I have to say, that's probably the most promoising post from Ian with regards to Cold weather since the infamous March 2013. Perhaps we are on the cusp of something interesting (finally and deservedly).

It does look dry, but a lot of cold spells in this country look dry away from coasts or near coastal regions - but quite frequently little things pop up. Get the cold IN, then keep your eyes out from there.